Brand-new MLC developing under the convection?

[Hyperstorm]

I think so. Just take a look at this close shot:



I was looking further west for a LLC developing, but recent shots indicate a weak ML turning under the deep convection. Anybody see that little hole in the convection near 15.7 71.6? That's what I'm talking about. I believe this could be the MLC to watch. Although, further west there are signs of a weak LLC to be developing. It is too weak to, at least for now, be the main player.

Comments about this interesting feature are welcome...

[MWatkins]

I posted a thought on this but I think it got lost.

Either the low-level center is moving out from the mid-level support...or the system is slowing down.

MW

[Anonymous]

I posted a thought on this but I think it got lost.

Either the low-level center is moving out from the mid-level support...or the system is slowing down.

MW

I would not be surprised if it's beginning to slow down. It is too soon to tell though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[MWatkins]

I posted a thought on this but I think it got lost.

Either the low-level center is moving out from the mid-level support...or the system is slowing down.

MW

It would not be surprised if it's beginning to slow down. It is too soon to tell though.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Yep...and overnight imagery suggested there were multiple vorticity centers floating around...so the exposed portion of one may not be the dominant one...or it could be shed all together with redevelopment of a new LLC under the cloud canopy.

Gonna be interesting to see recon data...I'll be in a meeting until 4:30...hopefully we'll have something by then....they are already on their 3rd observation I think...still a long way from the storm though.

MW

[Johnny]

IF the system is slowing down, does that mean it has a better chance to develop? Also, if this is case...does this effect which way this system will go?

[Brent]

IF the system is slowing down, does that mean it has a better chance to develop? Also, if this is case...does this effect which way this system will go?

A slower moving system defintely has a better chance to strengthen. If it moves too fast, the center can be exposed and outrun the convection.

[Hyperstorm]

I posted a thought on this but I think it got lost.

Either the low-level center is moving out from the mid-level support...or the system is slowing down.

MW

I actually think it's both of the cases. I see the system slowing down because of the change of steering winds where it is now as opposed to where it was earlier, but I also see a new center developing under the convection. The convection has been somewhat persistant since this morning and that helped trigger a new ML turning. Of course, I doubt (if this feature finally becomes the dominant system) it will be brought down to the surface by this afternoon. It normally takes at least 24 hours to do so. So, I don't expect the recon to find a LLC near 15.7 71.6, but I don't rule out the possibility of find a weak LLC exposed on the western edge of the convection. In either case, I would be surprised if the system is upgraded this afternoon. It is slowly but surely getting there though...

[Aquawind]

Well..hopefully the LLC is gonna come from the Deep convection east of that hole..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[wxman57]

I don't think it's slowing down. I think that's an illusion because the wave passed a hot spot southeast of the upper low. Convection continues to fire in the SE quadrant of the upper low while the wave continues moving away to the west. That's why convection is decreasing now.

[Air Force Met]

I don't think it is slowing either. The vort max that is moving out of the convection to the west is booking towards the west. There will probably be another one form tonight or tomorrow.

[Wnghs2007]

I don't think it's slowing down. I think that's an illusion because the wave passed a hot spot southeast of the upper low. Convection continues to fire in the SE quadrant of the upper low while the wave continues moving away to the west. That's why convection is decreasing now.

The wave has slowed down. As indicated by first most the National Hurricane Center. Down from 25 mph to 18 mph. And Models also Indicated that it was moving slow!er