97L is not Cooked Yet

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:01 pm

First of all...the wave is not falling apart. Recon probably didnt abort as a result of organization of the system...they likely have mechanical problems. I believe the cost of the flight is the same regardless of the length of time of the mission...minus the fuel...so I doubt somebody called it off in mid flight. They've proceeded into more suspect systems in the past.

There are 2 explainations....

1. Convection is at a diurnal minimum. This happened last night too...it died down all evening and made a comeback overnight. It survived the night under more hostile conditions that it is experiencing now.

2. There are likely multiple vorticies spinning around and the system is probably going through a structural change. There continues to be an impressive mid-center to the east of where a low-level center looks to be. If new deep thunderstorms push up back there later tonight...then development may go ahead and start.

We talked about this last night...the system needs to hang around for another 48 hours (it was 72 yesterday) and the shear is relaxing faster than forecast. Conditions will gradually become more favorable for development. This system is not done yet.

MW

#2 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:10 pm

Thanks for your insightful comments.
So where do you think it MAY be headed
if it develops?

frederic79 · #3 Postby **frederic79** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:11 pm

I fully agree with your analysis, Mike. This so much reminds me of the roller coaster ride we endured with Claudette last year with recon even failing to find a closed circulation early on. Up and down it went and then it fell apart again after crossing the Yucatan. Thanks for your encouragement; I needed that.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:36 pm

Mike..If this does develop..The flow unless changed, supports a Mexican landfall most likely?? Thanks in advance :wink:

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:41 pm

I don't know what do you think, but I believe this thing a getting finally its act together. Truly as said above, the system survived last night where conditions were a lot hostile than what the system is experiencing now. I hope to see something developing from this.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:42 pm

i think it will develop further :wink:

Typhoon_Willie · #7 Postby **Typhoon_Willie** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:53 pm

Could very well be!

chadtm80 · #8 Postby **chadtm80** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 4:57 pm

You are right again Mike

THE RECONNAISSANCE ARICRAFT SCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON WAS
CANCELLED DUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY MORNING...IF
NECESSARY.

97L is not Cooked Yet

97L is not Cooked Yet

Thanks!!!

Great post

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