Dr.Steve Lyons.......still no chance for development

[Opal storm]

On the last tropical update he said this still has no chance at this time.He said this will have a much better chance in the GOM.....if it makes it to the GOM.

[Rainband]

It will make it to Meixco, but I don't know about the GOM

[Opal storm]

I agree,this has Mexico written all over it.Why he keeps saying this has no chance is what I don't get.This looks (to me),like a very organized tropical wave,showing no sighns of backing down.I still think that this will become a T.D for sure.

[Thunder44]

He didn't exactly say it has no chance, today. He doesn't think conditions are too favorable for development. He thinks it has a better chance of developing as it get closer to the Gulf, but a much better chance when actually it gets into the Gulf. He keeps pointing out that no tropical cyclones on record have developed in the Carribean in late July, but have in the Gulf.

[Rainband]

I doubt it will make it into the GOM. Last I heard The flow supports Mexico

[Wnghs2007]

But it continues to move in A West North West Direction in which it may clip the Yucatan. But I believe it still has a chance to make it into the gulf. The weaker it stays the better chance it has.

[Rainband]

Whatever straws you want to grasp at

[MGC]

Low and mid level flow supports a path south of Cuba and into the GOM. This system at most might clip the northern Yucatan......MGC

[chadtm80]

Guys.. You MUST not mis quote these guys. Pay close attention to there wording if you are going to post about it please

[Aquawind]

Weaker more west..old rule.. So if it develops and when it develops all plays a part in how it reacts towards the different steering forces..The models are pretty much west..The more it organizes and strengthens the better chance that it could change...This pulsing up and down with LLC relocation stuff can create a stair step effect..we need to get a LLC verified and ceritified..then we can get better model initialization points and consistencey..so far this is a multiple vortex, relocating, divergent, sheared, multidirectional elongated, pulsing, thinga ma bob!! Who knows..

[hurricanedude]

LOL rainband....grasping at straws for development always happens from June 1st- Nov 30th...every little Thundershower is going to be our next storm....certainly humorous for sure, Ive been around since 1997 and every year the same thing. litterly hundreds of waves treverse the open waters of the atlantic basin, and less than a dozen on average, develp...so folks....thats only about 5% at best off all the waves develop, so dont get so worked up on development..it will happen when the heavens above want it too!!
just dudes 2 cents worth!

[Rainband]

Good points Aqua and Mike

[Josephine96]

I hate to 1nce again say this.. But I really don't like Steve Lyons too much lol..


This thing has to get into a more favorable environment and an environment that is full of warm water and very little if any shear. Once that happens.. who knows what could happen to it..

[GrimReaper]

There is a cause for the syndrome of "-removed-".....too much hurricaneosterone!!!!!!

[vbhoutex]

:lol: There is a cause for the syndrome of "-removed-".....too much hurricaneosterone!!!!!!

THAT IS FOR SURE!!!