Done Deal

[MWatkins]

With no new deep convection to speak of for the last 12 hours...it's time to write 97L off.

We saw a small low/mid center shoot out of the convection yesterday afternoon...leaving behind a decent (presumed) mid-center that SAB and TAFB were tracking overnight. Apparently...the mid-center was unable to get anything working at the surface...and with the loss of all significant thunderstorm support...if it was going to come back to life it would have done so by now.

Given the large amount of dry air following the system...I wonder if some may have slid under the mid center...stabilizing the low levels and preventing anything from working back up.

Oh well...a good dry run. The season really doesn't start until August anyway....

MW

[kevin]

Too bad really. NHC changed tunes also and says no development expected. We'll just have to wait longer.

[Anonymous]

stick a fork in it !

[Guest]

Now the models still hold onto the wave moving into NW Florida next week. What will be interesting is if the convection can begin to develop as it moves into the GOM.
I'll be watching it!

[alicia-w]

As A NW Florida resident, you can bet I'll be watching it too!

[frederic79]

If NHC and CSU season forecasts hold true and the 2004 season is above average, those storms will now have to develop between the first of August and first of November (although Nov. 30 is technically the end of the season). In recent years it seems like we've had A, B and even C named storms in June and July, then a fairly quiet August going into September. By the time it picked back up, along came the cold fronts and troughs along with dry air and cooler water temps. This year, I suspect that we will see the season start with a bang BEFORE the fall pattern gets started, during the dog days. This is all while water temps are higher, air remains humid and coastal areas are vunerable to a major storm. I guess I'm saying the POTENTIAL seems higher due to the fact we haven't even had our first Atlantic depression. If storms truly are a release valve for tropical heat, we have a simmering pot that's just getting hotter as time goes on. August is prime time for all the ingredients to ripen unlike we seen in recent years. Given the timing of the lull we are experiencing so far, I look for a very interesting August and early September. Thoughts?

[Derecho]

Now the models still hold onto the wave moving into NW Florida next week. What will be interesting is if the convection can begin to develop as it moves into the GOM.
I'll be watching it!

Huh? Which models? Don't have the foggiest idea what you're talking about.

The models barely even depict this wave at all, much less show it moving into NW Florida.

[vbhoutex]

If NHC and CSU season forecasts hold true and the 2004 season is above average, those storms will now have to develop between the first of August and first of November (although Nov. 30 is technically the end of the season). In recent years it seems like we've had A, B and even C named storms in June and July, then a fairly quiet August going into September. By the time it picked back up, along came the cold fronts and troughs along with dry air and cooler water temps. This year, I suspect that we will see the season start with a bang BEFORE the fall pattern gets started, during the dog days. This is all while water temps are higher, air remains humid and coastal areas are vunerable to a major storm. I guess I'm saying the POTENTIAL seems higher due to the fact we haven't even had our first Atlantic depression. If storms truly are a release valve for tropical heat, we have a simmering pot that's just getting hotter as time goes on. August is prime time for all the ingredients to ripen unlike we seen in recent years. Given the timing of the lull we are experiencing so far, I look for a very interesting August and early September. Thoughts?

Good discussion of the possibilities/probabilities currently associated with this season as it progresses. Not a lot I can argue with. If we do have as busy a season as expected, and I think we will, and if it does what it now appears will happen(busy season not starting till August), then IF the fall pattern sets in on schedule, it would appear that the North gulf coast from NO east could be a busy area this season.

[SunnyThoughts]

I too am from NW Florida, I'll be watching, but I haven't heard any of our local mets say anything about the wave, or what's left of it, coming anywhere near this area.

[Opal storm]

ZZZzzzz(sleeping)What????Did I here NW FL?????IM A WAKE

I'll still keep an eye on it but I think it's over for now I still think this is going to Mexico

[hurricanetrack]

the global models did not do anything with it. No global model support at all= no development most of the time. And on the other hand, when they all "honk" at development, we usually see development.

[USAwx1]

If NHC and CSU season forecasts hold true and the 2004 season is above average, those storms will now have to develop between the first of August and first of November (although Nov. 30 is technically the end of the season). In recent years it seems like we've had A, B and even C named storms in June and July, then a fairly quiet August going into September. By the time it picked back up, along came the cold fronts and troughs along with dry air and cooler water temps. This year, I suspect that we will see the season start with a bang BEFORE the fall pattern gets started, during the dog days. This is all while water temps are higher, air remains humid and coastal areas are vunerable to a major storm. I guess I'm saying the POTENTIAL seems higher due to the fact we haven't even had our first Atlantic depression. If storms truly are a release valve for tropical heat, we have a simmering pot that's just getting hotter as time goes on. August is prime time for all the ingredients to ripen unlike we seen in recent years. Given the timing of the lull we are experiencing so far, I look for a very interesting August and early September. Thoughts?

Thats very interesting that you mention that. tropical systems are a mechanism by which heat is distributed more evenly between the tropics and high latitudes. that's one of the reasons why there is an upturn in TC activity during the ATC (Atlantic thermohaline Circulation) strong cycle and a downturn during the weak cycle.

Still think my 13/8/4 forecast (see link in sig for full write-up) is on track and I find no reason to deviate even in spite of the slow start to the season which was anticipated anyway.

Anyway, nice post and good analysis.

[MWatkins]

If NHC and CSU season forecasts hold true and the 2004 season is above average, those storms will now have to develop between the first of August and first of November (although Nov. 30 is technically the end of the season). In recent years it seems like we've had A, B and even C named storms in June and July, then a fairly quiet August going into September. By the time it picked back up, along came the cold fronts and troughs along with dry air and cooler water temps. This year, I suspect that we will see the season start with a bang BEFORE the fall pattern gets started, during the dog days. This is all while water temps are higher, air remains humid and coastal areas are vunerable to a major storm. I guess I'm saying the POTENTIAL seems higher due to the fact we haven't even had our first Atlantic depression. If storms truly are a release valve for tropical heat, we have a simmering pot that's just getting hotter as time goes on. August is prime time for all the ingredients to ripen unlike we seen in recent years. Given the timing of the lull we are experiencing so far, I look for a very interesting August and early September. Thoughts?

Think you have a great point and some good, solid conclusions. Pressures in the MDR are below normal and the ITCZ (in the east in paticular) is surging northward.

1998 started very late...I remember reading a TWO at 11:30 one morning and it was as if somebody took the lid off of a boiling pot in mid/late Aug.

It's gonna happen again...

MW

[frederic79]

I believe you're right.

An aside... in one earlier post I noted that according to NHC archives, during the past 10 years prior to this one, their were 3 years that began (A storm) after July 14 (one was 1998). Those 3 late starting years saw on average 5 named strikes (15 total) from coastal Mexico to the Big Bend area of Flordia. The other seven years saw an average of only 2.7 named strikes (19 total). These include tropical storms and hurricanes, not depressions. That's almost a 2:1 ratio. Also, many prior years that saw names retired including 1969 (Camille), 1980 (Allen), 1985 (Elena) and 1992 (Andrew) and there may be more, were late-starting years for the first named storm. Do you think these stats have any significance, especially since this is July 22 already?