Signs of an early/active Cape Verde season...Details inside

[Hyperstorm]

Take a look at this interesting discussion from NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico:

.DISCUSSION...
PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE MINOR CYCLONIC TURNING
TODAY TO AID IN ENHANCEMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS P.R. WHILE
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND LEEWARDS ISLANDS REMAIN ON EAST AND DIVERGENT
SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE UPPER CONVERGENCE
BEGINS TO DOMINATE REGION WIDE. MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT LACK OF LLVL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY TO WIDELY SCATTERED AT BEST...EXCEPT WHERE DIURNAL
FORCING OCCURS ACROSS P.R. AND IN LEEWARD STREAMERS OFF LOCAL
ISLANDS. FAIR AND EVEN MORE STABLE CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN OF AFRICAN DUST BY FIRDAY NIGHT. NEXT
BROAD TROPICAL WAVE WITH ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGHING THEN FORECAST
BY GFS TO REACH NE CARIB SATURDAY NIGHT...AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA
THEN THROUGH SUNDAY. W AFRICAN MONSOONAL TROUGH HAS SET UP NICELY
EAST TO WEST PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND CENTRAL ATLC WAVE HAS DRAGGED IT
WESTWARD ALONG 10-12N BEYOND 40W. TROPICAL ATLC LOOKS TO BE SHAPING
UP AHEAD OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR A POTENTIAL EARLY START TO THE
BEGINNING OF OUR SEASON...AS COMPARED TO PAST FEW YEARS.


Interesting what we're seeing early this year. There were some hints earlier in the month that it could be active, but now this discussion confirms it.

So, people who don't stop complaining about the lack of activity, I'm telling you: THIS IS COMPLETELY NORMAL. You'll see the storms come one right behind the other and we should end up the season with 13-15 named systems most likely.

Imagine how active it has to be to make up for those numbers. That means there could be 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September, 3-4 in October and 1-2 in November! Amazingly active!

Very wild ride for the rest of the season, so stop worrying...

[cycloneye]

Yes I saw the discussion but didn't post that paragrafh here but they say it very well as always the NWS office at San Juan does with the long discussions that they do.

[Hyperstorm]

That's right cycloneye. I really like their discussions as they do one of the most detailed I've seen of any NWS office. I really appreciate their input. Very good job people from NWS in San Juan!

[Aquawind]

San Juan NWS is awesome..often better reading than NHC on the tropics..

[yoda]

I saw some information from a weather site this morning that deals with the Cape Verde.. but I don't quite understand it.

"Once "Cape Verde" activity gets going, residents
of the Eastern Seaboard may have plenty to be concerned about in the way of warm-core cyclogenesis."


What does this mean? Can anyone explain this to me?

Thanks!!

Matt

[NJCane]

My take on it is that the steering patterns favor taking CV storms anywhere from Florida to Maine.

[Derecho]

I saw some information from a weather site this morning that deals with the Cape Verde.. but I don't quite understand it.

"Once "Cape Verde" activity gets going, residents
of the Eastern Seaboard may have plenty to be concerned about in the way of warm-core cyclogenesis."


What does this mean? Can anyone explain this to me?

Thanks!!

Matt

Eh, it's an overly elaborate way of saying "Once the Cape Verde Hurricane season begins, residents of the East Coast may have to worry about hurricanes" which is not a particularly bold or interesting statement, as that's true of every year.

Tropical systems are "warm-core" (as opposed to other "cold-core" lows.) Cyclogenesis is merely the formation of a cyclone.


Let me guess, it was Cosgrove, right? (Haven't looked.)

[yoda]

LOL, correct Derecho. I still ownder why I go to his site, but I do anyway...

[Brent]

Imagine how active it has to be to make up for those numbers. That means there could be 4-5 in August, 5-6 in September, 3-4 in October and 1-2 in November! Amazingly active!

[JPmia]

What other seasons are smiliar to this one in that we might have so many storms in only 2-3 months?

[OuterBanker]

i.e. 2002 had ts Dolly, ts Edouard, ts Fay, h Gustav, ts Hanna, h Isadore, h Josephine, h Kyle (that's 8 named storms) in Sept.

[vbhoutex]

What other seasons are smiliar to this one in that we might have so many storms in only 2-3 months?

I believe 1969 was very active also. I know Camille was one of them. 1969 is considered one of the analog years for this season by many.