No potential yet

[rbaker]

I know, I already said that.

[Stormchaser16]

I know, just stating it as a reason i dont see development with this wave(yet)

[rbaker]

let's see what happens tommorrow? Maybe we carry on a another conversation and get some others involved. This topic you made may have the most hits by the time its over with.

[Stormchaser16]

Possibly lol

[Agua]

your both incorrect. The system on the western side of storm has developed an feeder inflow band, and its typical for these weak systems, to flare during the early am and convection wane towards afternoon, just like we have been seeing in the last three days. Take a real good look at winds in front of system, over Jamaica they are easterly you can see plainly, but just too the south near Honduras you can see westerlies. This system is just about the westerlies, and as long as it continues moving west to wnw it will stay out of the westerlies. Look for refire of convection tonight late, but if it doesn't it will over the w. caribbean. Climotology has never had a depression form in this general area since 1886.

Heh. Looks like it croaked.

[Rainband]

diurnal

[Stormchaser16]

Diurnal or croaked......... that is the question

[Brent]

The other reason im totally against development now, is climatogoly, NONE in this area in the last 100 years till the end of this month

*COUGH!*

CLAUDETTE! July 8, 2003.

[Agua]

Diurnal or croaked......... that is the question

Just picking with ya. I think you realized that by my last comment though.

It does looked raggedy as hell though.

[Stormchaser16]

Yes indeed it does...... I am very concerned

[Stormchaser16]

Almost ALL convection gone now, thunderstorms over Hispanola now preventing the storm from ventilating......

[Stormchaser16]

Alrite, bringing this back up....... rbaker take a look at wxmans reply to the threat by the dark night...... it WAS more then diurnal....

[FWBHurricane]

Im not worried...it just looks like what usually happens, the convection slightly fades and then re-fires in the morning. It still looks really impressive on satellite, nice rotation. I think it still has a chance.

[bahamaswx]

Yep. I'm not worried at all. The lack of convection has revealed a nice structure to this one, also.

[Stormsfury]

The other reason im totally against development now, is climatogoly, NONE in this area in the last 100 years till the end of this month

*COUGH!*

CLAUDETTE! July 8, 2003.

*COUGH*

A little different animal here ...

[Stormchaser16]

Ummmmmmm Brent check your climatology buddy, nothing developed in this area between July 21st-end of month......

[Agua]

alot like me, but we have to look at reality, not hopes. We can only predict like me and you, and probably be better at it than most people on the street.

It croaked.

[Stormchaser16]

Diurnal effect my a*......... apples

lol......

[rbaker]

stormchaser 16, I never said anything about diurnal effects to anyone, so I don't know where you got your information. In fact, no doubt it didn't do what it had done last 3 nights, I believe those burst of convection was from all the shear, take a look at past sat pictures, and notice western side of convection had no outflow but eastern was being pulled back to the east. The few flare ups today have had alot of easterly shear, you can see the blow offs easily in vis sat pictures. Checked pressures down there and there running around 1012mb at kin to around 1013mb at gcm. Not real low but a little lower than normal. You may be right about it being zapped for now, but I'll wait till tommorrow or even Sat. when or if it makes it to the gom where conditions are even better.

[Stormchaser16]

Wasnt implying u rbaker