Winter of 1962-1963?

[yoda]

I have been hearing a lot of talk about this winter being somewhat like the 62-63 winter. A few sites have talked about seeing ants and underground animals already preparing for winter. Not to say I believe all this stuff... but could this winter analog to the 62-63 winter? IF it could not, what was the winter of 1962-1963 like for the East?

[ATS]

Those few sites giving that information are incorrect.

1962-63 was a La Nina and East QBO winter. That particular year is not an analog in my opinion, and neither is 1966-67 which some of the forecasters here have tried to imply.

The only way either of those two winters could turn out to be analogs is if for some reason the ENSO goes back to where it was from 1998 to 2001 with persistent La Nina conditions. And even still, this is not going to be an east QBO winter throughout.

Looking at the SOI fluctuations and trends in the equatorial Pacific SSTA, I tend to agree with the others here who are forecasting the onset of El Nino conditions by late fall.

The 1962-63 winter was colder than average in the eastern part of country, with intense high latitude blocking over the North Atlantic. A positive PNA pattern and frequently negative EPO and WPO were observed as well.

[yoda]

So, what years could we use as POSSIBLE analogs to this upcoming winter?

[ATS]

Read Donsutherland's thread.

[USAwx1]

Matt, the years which have been discussed are as follows:

1963-64, 1965-66, 1966-67, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1994-95, 2002-03.

there is no specific order or perferance as to which are more dominant over others right now.

[Wnghs2007]

Hey I WANT SNOW IN GEORGIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!SEND ME SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!:lol:

[USAwx1]

KC...I got some good news for you pal. if you want snow, our preliminary analog mean snowfall at Atlanta was 1.30". 1963-64 was the BIG winter with 3.60" at the airport.

[donsutherland1]

ATS,

I agree with you that there are some serious drawbacks with respect to 1966-67, even if there are some intriguing similarities for the time being.

Some of the major drawbacks include:
• A fairly strong west QBO throughout the winter; At this time, I expect the QBO to swtich to east in January-February.
• The solar flux was rising fast then and its winter flux averaged far higher than what I believe will be the case this coming winter.
• Was neutral (more like borderline La Niña conditions at times) while I believe a weak El Niño will likely set in probably around the October-November-December period for the upcoming winter.

Overall, I'm not yet at a stage where I'm eliminating even somewhat prospective candidates for possible analogs. Soon, I'll be there. However, after taking a closer look and noting the above, I do not believe 1966-67 will prove to be viable.

For those in the Midwest e.g., Chicago, you have my sincerest sympathies on this matter.

[USAwx1]

Speaking of the midwest, one of the things that I like about the 1977-78 analog is that it would imply a return to winter in the GL region (and still keep the tone going in the NE or the past few years) which is what I think is in the offing after basically several crappy winters in a row.

Also, weak EL NINO winters w/ a west QBO tend to favor pronounced high latitude blocking.

[Wnghs2007]

KC...I got some good news for you pal. if you want snow, our preliminary analog mean snowfall at Atlanta was 1.30". 1963-64 was the BIG winter with 3.60" at the airport.

Well being as I live 40 miles Northeast of Atlanta. I guess that is good. LOL

[yoda]

Matt, the years which have been discussed are as follows:

1963-64, 1965-66, 1966-67, 1969-70, 1977-78, 1993-94, 1994-95, 2002-03.

there is no specific order or perferance as to which are more dominant over others right now.

Any of those winters bring any big snows to DC...?? I know 2002-2003 did... but what about the others? Where could I find this info out? You guys are a big help, thanks!

[donsutherland1]

Yoda,

The following are the seasonal snowfall totals for DCA for each of the winters you noted:

1963-64: 33.6"
1965-66: 28.4"
1966-67: 37.1"
1969-70: 14.0"
1977-78: 22.7"
1993-94: 13.2"
1994-95: 10.1"
2002-03: 40.4"

[yoda]

Yoda,

The following are the seasonal snowfall totals for DCA for each of the winters you noted:

1963-64: 33.6"
1965-66: 28.4"
1966-67: 37.1"
1969-70: 14.0"
1977-78: 22.7"
1993-94: 13.2"
1994-95: 10.1"
2002-03: 40.4"

Well, I would like a snowy winter.. so the bold ones I don't want... I would like a 63-64, or a 66-67 winter again though please!!!

[GAStorm]

KC...I got some good news for you pal. if you want snow, our preliminary analog mean snowfall at Atlanta was 1.30". 1963-64 was the BIG winter with 3.60" at the airport.

I checked the history of the ATL airport for December '63, and there were two snow events. The first one was only about a half inch, but left snow on the ground for Christmas. Also, on New Year's Eve, just over 2 inches was recorded as well. Bring on that 63-64 analog please!!

[donsutherland1]

I will add a quick caveat regarding the timing of the switch in the QBO. If a reversal of the decline manifests itself over the next few months, the behavior could more closely resemble that of 1978 and 1990 where it took a full year from its initial peak for it to complete the transition to east. If that happens, a mainly QBO west winter might be in the offing. This is something I'll be watching for as the summer and early fall progresses.

[yoda]

What would be the difference between a QBO East winter and a QBO west winter? I don't understand..

[USAwx1]

Don, I have some SERIOUS problems with 1990-91 as an analog.

Ok, I feel a RANT coming on. Get the ear plugs out.

First and foremost it was a SOLAR MAX winter:

1990 2101 1783 1888 1853 1897 1709 1807 2226 1774 1820 1843 2049
1991 2294 2430 2300 1988 1903 2068 2120 2103 1806 2013 1720 2239

Those values closely resemble and in some cases EXCEED the winter of 2001-02. There is no way this year will have anything even close to the league which those numbers are in.

Secondly, Statistical EL NINO conditions were NEVER met since NINIO 3.4 SSTA only got to +0.5 in JAN of 1991

1990 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4
1991 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.7

The overall condition of the ENSO was slightly warm Neutral thought the DEC-FEB period. It was not until MAY of 1991 before EL NINO conditions finally developed and AUG before it was classified since you need at least 3 months of SSTA > +0.5 DEG C in the NINO 3.4 region in order for statistical EL NINO conditions to be declared.

Also, the 1990-91 winter PDO values were in the tank. Frequently in the -2 to -2.5 range. This winter, chances are, they WILL NOT be that low.

1990 -0.30 -0.65 -0.62 0.27 0.44 0.44 0.27 0.11 0.38 -0.69 -1.69 -2.23
1991 -2.02 -1.19 -0.74 -1.01 -0.51 -1.47 -0.10 0.36 0.65 0.49 0.42 0.09

Not to mention if we consider the long term cycles in the oceans, in the winter of 1990-91, the PDO was negative within the long term warm cycle, this year it will either be close to neutral or slightly positive within the long-term cold cycle. The Atlantic was also in the warm cycle.



This was JAN 1991, notice all the cold water across the North Atlantic, and equatorial Atlantic winter some warm water wedged in-between. Classic SSTA configuration particular to the ATC weak cycle. Also the NPAC was boiling in response to the strongly positive PDO w/ cold water surrounding the west coast of North America. This year is the complete reverse.

When it comes to the 1978-79 winter, I’m similarly non-enthused:

Here are the verifications for the QBO, ONI and Solar flux that winter:

ONI:

1978 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1
1979 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5

QBO:

1978 3.84 6.54 9.92 12.20 11.79 8.30 5.83 6.04 6.11 6.35 4.83 1.54
1979 1.86 4.12 0.89 -3.57 -12.90 -19.60 -21.27 -22.24 -22.70 -23.32 -22.20 -16.99

Solar flux:

1978 1096 1454 1418 1494 1465 1422 1311 1140 1579 1582 1515 1755
1979 2030 2041 1858 1738 1652 1803 1659 1727 2002 2179 2317 2035

Alright, so lets see what we got. The ONI verification shows us almost DEAD NEUTRAL conditions through most of the winter (strike one against it), solar flux was increasing as we trended toward the solar maximum of that cycle (strike two against it). The only real solid match is the QBO. Also the transition back into the long-term warm cycles was underway that year, which should pout the kibosh on its analog potential.

Our current position in THE CURRENT Atlantic and PAC cold cycle is similar to where the decade of the 1960s was in the last Cold cycle.

For whatever it might be worth, the PDO was slightly negative that year:

1978 0.34 1.45 1.34 1.29 0.90 0.15 -1.24 -0.56 -0.44 0.10 -0.07 -0.43
1979 -0.58 -1.33 0.30 0.89 1.09 0.17 0.84 0.52 1.00 1.06 0.48 -0.42

I think if we take a look at the verifications from the 1977-78 winter, it’s a MUCH better analog. ONI values were above +0.5 DEG C for over three months (enough for an EL NINO classification), however DID NOT exceed +1.0 during the peak of the warm episode in NOV and DEC. the QBO was WEAK positive throughout (which if you are correct in thinking the QBO will reverse its decline, would push this season even more as a potentially solid analog).

Solar flux was MUCH lower however might still be somewhat out of range. Our other analogs look fairly solid especially for the DEC-JAN period.

If the QBO does not reverse, then 2002-03 is out. But more time is required to monitor its behavior.

[donsutherland1]

USAwx1,

I don't believe 1990-91 should be an analog at all for the coming winter. I was strictly using it as a reference for the timing of the QBO switch. I'm still thinking January-February but 1978-79 and 1990-91 offer two examples where the switch took longer. If, as happened in those two years, one sees the QBO begin to rise again, this could be a sign that the West phase could endure through the winter.

Then, El Niño-west winters could play a more prominent role with respect to the coming season. 1990-91, though, is not a prospective analog in my view even if the QBO's timing were to resemble the 1990-91 progression.

[donsutherland1]

To avoid confusion, here are a few of my thoughts at this point with respect to the upcoming winter (just for purposes of starting to identify prospective analogs):

1) I'm expecting a weak El Niño or borderline El Niño to develop probably in the October-November-December timeframe or perhaps a little after. My confidence in this is good.

2) I'm expecting the QBO to switch to east in January or February but I am not strongly confident of this. There is some possibility of a later switch (that alone was what I was alluding to earlier with regard to the 1978 and 1990 precedents).

3) I'm expecting the solar flux to average somewhere between 820 and 920 during the December-March period. My confidence in this is high.

4) I'm expecting the warm anomaly in ENSO Region 3.4 to exceed that of Region 1+2. My confidence in this is moderate.

[USAwx1]

Don, I apologize for the confusion, I was under the impression you were suggesting that 1978-79 and 1990-91 were potential analogs.

My confidence in #4 is high. The core of the EL NINO events in the PDO long-term cold phase normally are located in the Central and WPAC -- usually west of 120W.

its simple climo for ENSO warm events in the PDO cold phase.

if we go back and review most of the warm events of the 1960s and 1970s during the last PAC cold phase, they generally w/ the exception of the 1972-73 EL NINO have two things in common:

1. the core of the warm Anomaly was west of 120W

2. The events were weaker than those of the PDO warm cycle.