1200 UTC Models> I know three hours old but still.

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Wnghs2007
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1200 UTC Models> I know three hours old but still.

#1 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:38 am

279
WHXX01 KWBC 231441
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982004) ON 20040723 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040723 1200 040724 0000 040724 1200 040725 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.3N 73.0W 29.5N 73.2W 29.9N 73.7W 30.5N 74.0W
BAMM 29.3N 73.0W 29.7N 72.6W 30.3N 72.6W 30.9N 72.3W
A98E 29.3N 73.0W 29.5N 72.8W 29.8N 74.1W 30.1N 75.0W
LBAR 29.3N 73.0W 29.7N 73.1W 30.5N 73.5W 31.5N 74.0W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040725 1200 040726 1200 040727 1200 040728 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 31.0N 74.3W 32.1N 74.0W 33.3N 73.0W 35.7N 71.6W
BAMM 31.5N 72.2W 32.6N 71.4W 34.3N 69.9W 37.2N 67.4W
A98E 30.2N 75.9W 30.2N 75.8W 30.9N 75.4W 31.8N 74.0W
LBAR 32.6N 74.6W 35.1N 75.2W 38.5N 72.9W 42.8N 65.8W
SHIP 44KTS 53KTS 56KTS 53KTS
DSHP 44KTS 53KTS 56KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.3N LONCUR = 73.0W DIRCUR = 90DEG SPDCUR = 1KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 72.6W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 29.2N LONM24 = 72.9W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
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#2 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:42 am

If read and is true literally (which you know will NEVER happen)
This would be a TS in 24-36 hours.. and a POSSIBLE Cat 1 hurricane in 96-120... but I will wait to see what we find tomorrow.. :D
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#3 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:44 am

yoda wrote:If read and is true literally (which you know will NEVER happen)
This would be a TS in 24-36 hours.. and a POSSIBLE Cat 1 hurricane in 96-120... but I will wait to see what we find tomorrow.. :D


LOL. Yeah just remember with 97L these models were calling for a Cat 2 hurricane by day 5.
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#4 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:45 am

Those were the SHIPS models KC!! :lol: :lol:
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#5 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:47 am

yoda wrote:Those were the SHIPS models KC!! :lol: :lol:



LOL. I know. And did you see what happend. NOTHING. Also the DShip models had it as Cat2. And they had land involved. LOL. :roll: :wink: :lol: :lol: :lol:
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#6 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:48 am

Those two models were RIDICULOUS!!! :D :D :D
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#7 Postby HURAKAN » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:51 am

Are those the models that forecasted a CAT. 2 hurricane in the Western Caribbean with the last poofing tropical wave? If so, I don't have too much faith concerning the information they provide.
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#8 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:53 am

You are correct Hurakan... :D

Those 2 models were on crack I believe... :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol:
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#9 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 10:56 am

yoda wrote:You are correct Hurakan... :D

Those 2 models were on crack I believe... :roll: :roll: :lol: :lol:



They were. And I believe that they are still on crack. LOL :lol: :lol: :lol: :wink: :D
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#10 Postby rbaker » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:14 am

i believe it says at top "TEST MESSAGE" so I wouldn't take to much heart on what these are. In fact looking at vis sat pictures and wv, the south end of system has alot of convection, with a high pressure ridge overtop or just to the east for excellent outflow, but to the west a ull, I don't know if this is a good situation for futher intensity, but looks like it.
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#11 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:17 am

The big question is where does this system, if it becomes topical in the Bahamas area... want to go?
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#12 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:19 am

yoda wrote:The big question is where does this system, if it becomes topical in the Bahamas area... want to go?



We will have to wait and see. But go and read what I posted in the TWO thread.
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#13 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:20 am

I did.. where are the Carolina AFD's you said? :lol: :lol: :P
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#14 Postby Wnghs2007 » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:29 am

yoda wrote:I did.. where are the Carolina AFD's you said? :lol: :lol: :P



What Carlionas. I showed you Melbournes.
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#15 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 23, 2004 11:33 am

You said Carolina... :D
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#16 Postby senorpepr » Fri Jul 23, 2004 2:23 pm

rbaker wrote:i believe it says at top "TEST MESSAGE" so I wouldn't take to much heart on what these are. In fact looking at vis sat pictures and wv, the south end of system has alot of convection, with a high pressure ridge overtop or just to the east for excellent outflow, but to the west a ull, I don't know if this is a good situation for futher intensity, but looks like it.


They all have TEST MESSAGE at the top of them. Part of the reason is so those who are unfamiliar with the product won't take the figures as gospel. Another part of the reason is gov't politics. If a system is in the "testing" stage, the gov't doesn't spend as much money on it. The longer they put off making it a standard product, the less money will go to it.
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