GFS 16 days out

[hurricanetrack]

I just took a look at the 12Z GFS (operational) and it looks like it keeps the ridge from Africa westward into the Southeast U.S. with no major breaks. Since the GFS is apparently infamous for overdoing troffs, then perhaps the lack of troffs by the GFS for the next 2 weeks is a good sign- if you like to see hurricanes, that is.

[yoda]

That is correct. I hope we will see some action soon!

[hurricanetrack]

With the warm Atlantic waters off the East Coast, hopefully that ridge will hold.

[yoda]

Why do you want the ridge to hold? I for one, would like it to break...

[lilbump3000]

Well me i want the ridge to hold. Its about time for another major storm in the gulf of mexico.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Ya'll have had tons of storms in the Gulf the last few years. Give us a chance

And before you say "what about Isabel?" I live in Fayetteville, NC, and all we got was some rain and 40 mph winds tops

[lilbump3000]

Man you live in NC. Almost every year yall got a major hurricane if not a major one it be a 110MPH storm which is just 1MPH away from a major one.

[The Dark Knight]

Hahahahahahahahaha.........

[hurricanefreak1988]

Man you live in NC. Almost every year yall got a major hurricane if not a major one it be a 110MPH storm which is just 1MPH away from a major one.

Not so: we've only had a few memorable hurricanes since 1996: Fran, Bonnie, Floyd, and Isabel. So we're due

[lilbump3000]

And look at New Orleans since 1996, the closest incounter is hurricane georges in 1998. Lili in 2002 doesnt count that was all the way in centeral to western louisiana which new orleans barley seen anything from her but a little wind and little rain.

Also them little tropical storms dont count.

Is about time for another storm to come up the mouth of the river.

[TS Zack]

You better watch what you say lilbump3000 or you will be swiming with your Hurricane. I would like to see one hit us and give us some winds and rain but don't come up the Mouth of the River. Come in around Grand Isle or Terrebone Parish. I would like to see the storm but not swim in it. So stay away from the Mouth of the River come from the west or south.
NOT SOUTHEAST

[stormchazer]

I hope you all don't get what you wish for. I saw the aftermath of Hugo and I say they are fun to track, but I do not want to see one.

[Aquawind]

From todays Tampa NWS Discussion..


.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT-FRI)...WILL THE BERMUDA HIGH EVER SET UP THIS
SUMMER? JUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE IT MIGHT...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE REVERSED COURSE SOMEWHAT...DEVELOPING A QUASI-STATIONARY SFC
LOW OVER THE DEEP S EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND PRETTY MUCH HOLDING IT
IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...WHILE ALOFT GENERALLY LIGHT W
TO SW FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHEAR AXES RULES THE WEEK. THE REASON...
WHICH ISN'T COMPLETELY CLEAR JUST YET...IS FROM UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENTS
INCLUDING A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BIG SKY (MONTANA/ALBERTA)
WHICH NUDGES DOWNSTREAM FEATURES FARTHER E...INCLUDING THE ONCE-
CUTOFF MIDWEST LOW WHICH NOW OPENS UP TO A WEAK...BUT MERIDIONAL...
TROUGH IN THE OH VALLEY ULTIMATELY SHOVING THE W ATLC HIGH FARTHER
EAST...AGAIN.

SINCE THESE TRENDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...HAVE ELECTED JUST TO NUDGE
THE GOING FCST IN THE DIRECTION OF A WEAK SW FLOW EVENT. HIGHEST
MOISTURE LOOKS TO SET UP BY MID WEEK (WED) AS SW FLOW DEEPENS...BUT
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC FCST GENERALLY N OF TAMPA BAY
THE ONLY CHANGES WERE TO VEER THE WINDS A SMIDGE AND ADD MORE CLOUDS
LATER IN THE PERIOD. IN SHORT...MAY NOT BE THE BEST WEEK FOR A BEACH
VACATION BUT MORE COASTAL RAINS WOULD STILL BE A WELCOME FINISH
GIVEN THE DRY START TO JULY.