Statisticly speaking, it's a BUST!

azsnowman · #1 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:31 am

I was hoping for a *decent* monsoon season but the way things are looking, it's a HUGE bust , Alskahuna, you called it!:cry: Statisticly, it's a BUST and for all intents and purposes, I'm calling it OVER :cry:

In a *normal* monsoon, we SHOULD have had over 3.00" of rain so far, YTD (MTD, monsoon to date) is at 1.23", 1.87" below norm and the outlook is GRIM :cry:

Fire season *was* suppressed, NOW...it's BACK, FULL BLOWN, we've got 8 new starts as of yesterday, the "Lake Mountain" Fire, 7.5 miles to my East is now burning in HEAVY timber and is moving in a westerly direction (which translate into, burning towards Pinetop AGAIN!) :cry:

This is, BEYOND a shadow of a doubt, the driest year on record, making this drought, the worst EVER seen by ANY human, that has EVER walked the face of the Earth. Tree ring studies and other studies, shows this drought is even worse than the 1560 A.D. drought.

Dennis :cry:

Aquawind · #2 Postby **Aquawind** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:49 am

Holly Cow! Any Human Ever.. :eek:

Recovery after the fires wipe life from the surface doesn't look to good..Those Mars pictures come to mind.

#3 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:09 pm

It's a Patheticsoon to be sure. I have 1.02in for July against a normal to date of 1.88in but more importantly, the thunderstorms are just not reaching us. The drought area in NM which I was worried about in my outlook along with the persistent trough over the Eastern US are killing us monsoon wise. If it weren't for the good rains we had down here in the Spring (which you didn't get), we'de be in really deep Kimchi about now.

Steve

donsutherland1 · #4 Postby **donsutherland1** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 3:52 pm

At present, a number of Southwestern counties are exceptionally dry.

Looking back, the 1566-1593 period was a particularly prolonged dry period for the Southwest. Then, 25 of 27 years saw the Mean Palmer Hydrological Drought Index come out with a negative score (22 of 23 years during the 1570-1593 period were negative).

The driest 20-year period on record was 1573-1592 with a mean Palmer Index score of -1.796. The nearest 20-year period aside from a number of those during the late 16th century was 1278-1297 with a mean score of -1.382.

Source: Cook, E.R., 2000,
Southwestern USA Drought Index Reconstruction. International Tree-Ring Data Bank.
IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology
Data Contribution Series #2000-053.
NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Hopefully, this current severe drought will not be part of a period that rivals that of the late 16th century in terms of how long the drought lasts.

azsnowman · #5 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 4:44 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:It's a Patheticsoon to be sure. I have 1.02in for July against a normal to date of 1.88in but more importantly, the thunderstorms are just not reaching us. The drought area in NM which I was worried about in my outlook along with the persistent trough over the Eastern US are killing us monsoon wise. If it weren't for the good rains we had down here in the Spring (which you didn't get), we'de be in really deep Kimchi about now.

Steve

We ARE in DEEP kimichi up here Steve, just looked at Live Fuel Moisture Content on the USDA Forest Service website, it's BAD, BAD, BAD :cry:

LFM % in some areas, has hit an ALL time record low, "8.78%!" :cry:

I said in the past, the lumber you buy at Home Depot, Lowes etc, has a kiln dry moisture content of "10%" :eek:

At this rate, there will NOT be a single tree left by this time next year, that is "IF" they don't BURN to the ground first!

Aquawind, that's purely a hypothetical statement I made, there's no way to tell just how far back we can track these droughts. Tree ring studies can only go back 600 years with some accuracy, the most accurate we can do (my wife and I do tree ring studies along side the USDA Forest Service) is 250 years.

Dennis :cry:

azsnowman · #6 Postby **azsnowman** » Mon Jul 19, 2004 7:24 pm

*sigh*.....I give up, throwing in the towel on the monsoons this year :cry:

FOR TOMORROW...EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE FROM TODAY AS HIGH CHANGES
LITTLE FROM ITS POSITION OVER SW NM WITH DEEP LAYER STREAMLINES
DRAWING MOISTURE FROM FAVORABLE MOIST AIRMASS OVER MEXICO AS SEEN IN
GOES PW PLOTS. DESPITE MODEL TENDENCY TO DRY THINGS OUT...FLOW LOOKS
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY OF SIMILAR ACTIVITY. WEDNESEDAY
IT APPEARS THAT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
FEED DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE...MAINLY ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.

.EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF CONSISTENT IN BRINGING EASTERLY WAVE
TOWARD AZ BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LIKELY ADD SOME MOISTURE TO THE
CWFA. BY SUNDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY ON POSITION OF UPPER
LEVEL HIGH AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR BOTH SOLUTIONS BASED ON
CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL POSITIONS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE POPS TYPICAL
OF SOMEWHERE BETWEEN LOW AND MEDIUM GRADE MONSOON AVERAGE.

Dennis :cry:

azsnowman · #7 Postby **azsnowman** » Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:53 pm

If you'll look at my weather gizmo below, you'll see the dewpoint is now down to low 40°'s, in order for the Nonsoon to show up, it's NEEDS to be in the upper 50's to 60°'s....so, it goes without saying, it's OVER, BOY, whatta lousy nonsoon, 3 days with 1.23" of rain :roll:

Dennis

azsnowman · #8 Postby **azsnowman** » Thu Jul 22, 2004 7:38 am

And it only gets better :cry:

This is REALLY depressing :cry:

THE NORTHERN THIRD
STAYS IN WESTERLY FLOW AND MAY NEVER GET BACK INTO THE DEEPER
MOISTURE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYS 6 AND 7...TROUGHING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MAY LEAD TO A DRYING TREND OVER
ARIZONA...BUT A BIT TOO EARLY TO TELL. WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE
AT THIS TIME. PETERSON.

Dennis :cry:

#9 Postby **azskyman** » Thu Jul 22, 2004 8:54 pm

I'm watching the erratic air pressure, some change in the overall pattern, and hoping that enough moisture will kick on eastward to give all of us here a soaking or two between now and midweek next week.

azsnowman · #10 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 4:23 pm

WELL....yet ANOTHER BUST O RAMA day, boomers are poppin' ALL around us, NUTHIN' here in the mountains, let's see, if I'm NOT mistaken, this is day #10 without a DROP of rain. COME ON WINTER!

Dennis

azsnowman · #11 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 5:53 pm

WELL.....I'll take my "crow" KFC'D "LOL!" We JUST had our first SEVERE THUNDERSTORM of the YEAR :eek:

.91" in 15 minutes with DIME sized hail, in FACT....my report to NWS FLAG made it on TWC 8-)

AND....it APPEARS there's more on the WAY :wink:

Works everytime, this reverse phyc "LOL!"

Dennis

#12 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 7:09 pm

I noticed all of the oranges and yellows over AZ and NM this evening Dennis. Whatever works right? LOL!

azsnowman · #13 Postby **azsnowman** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 8:04 pm

Stephanie wrote:I noticed all of the oranges and yellows over AZ and NM this evening Dennis. Whatever works right? LOL!

You got it Steph! We had minor flooding, for about 5 minutes and cuz it's SO darn dry, you could HEAR the ground SUCKING the water up....well, ALMOST :lol:

Dennis

#14 Postby **Stephanie** » Fri Jul 23, 2004 8:56 pm

I hope the ground was able to soak up some of it! Maybe it needs some straws? LOL!

Statisticly speaking, it's a BUST!

Statisticly speaking, it's a BUST!

Re: Statisticly speaking, it's a BUST!

Who is online