Winter of 1962-1963?

[donsutherland1]

For the Washington, DC area, a El Niño-predominantly QBO west winters tend to be snowier, on average, than El Niño-predominantly QBO east winters.

Just quickly checking the data where the December through March averages were as follows: MEI (Multivariate ENSO Index): 0.500 against the QBO average for the same period reveals:

Average Snowfall:

MEI +0.500 or above and QBO +0.01 or above (predominantly west): 22.9" with 4/6 (67%) seasons above 20" and none below 10"

MEI +0.500 or above and QBO -0.01 or below (predominantly east): 15.6" with 5/9 (56%) seasons below 10" (including 2 with 0.1") but 4/9 (44%) seasons above 20"

[donsutherland1]

No problem, USAwx1.

Rest assured, if I have serious analog differences, etc., I'll first hash them out in the Forecasters' forum.

Good point with #4.

[USAwx1]

At some point I will post parts of a study which I have done on warm ENSO events in the PDO cold phase that deals with the differences from a traditional EL NINO.

[USAwx1]

The first study only covered Warm episodes from 1948 to 1995. it did NOT include the kill all 1997-98 El Nino nor the 2002-03 event.

The Updated study WILL include those two events. I may even decide to do a seperate and more broad study on the 1997-98 El Nino to see what else can be dug up on it at a later time.

Most likely not this year.

[donsutherland1]

I'm sure the research will prove quite interesting.

[donsutherland1]

USAwx1,

I will look forward to reading it at such time you post parts of it.

[USAwx1]

I don't know when I'll get around to doing the study on the 1997-98 event, and as said, it probably will not be this year.

As for updating my previous study, I'm looking to do so sometime next month.

[donsutherland1]

USAwx1,

Yes, I recall that. I fully understand how busy things might be.

[USAwx1]

Things have been rather busy lately for me, Don. Plus as you know I ran into some misfortune WRT my knee.

Anyway, I would be willing to allow the second study to appear in an upcoming edition of the S2k newsletter.

If anyone on the editorial staff would like that, please PM me so we can work out the details.

[Guest]

I hope that the winter is cold and snowy. 02-03 was a snowy winter in d.c area, but 03-04 was below average. Just hoping for a colder and snowier winter. My thoughts however are of a winter similar to the 95-96 episode. The Hudson Bay ice is still large, and similar to the ice in summer of 95. Well just have to wait I guess.

[Stormsfury]

I hope that the winter is cold and snowy. 02-03 was a snowy winter in d.c area, but 03-04 was below average. Just hoping for a colder and snowier winter. My thoughts however are of a winter similar to the 95-96 episode. The Hudson Bay ice is still large, and similar to the ice in summer of 95. Well just have to wait I guess.

Yep .. IF 2002-2003 does happen to become an analog ... let's hypothetize ... SHOULD 2004-2005 be as comparable as 2002-2003 in regards to QBO, and the ENSO state ... there will be one GLARING difference ... and that's the 10.7cm solar flux which will be MUCH LOWER than in the 2002-2003 season ...

IF that were to occur, the principal storm track could actually be driven slightly farther SOUTH ... assuming slightly colder conditions due to ...

1) less 10.7cm solar flux ... we're heading towards a solar minimum.
2) colder conditions allow for more snowcover/ice provided average to ABV agerage precipitation occurs during the fall months.
3) potential for even colder outbreaks and deeper South systems as the principal storm track in theory is driven further south ... and might even allow for something not seen in a good many years ... a true Miller A GOM storm system.

But ... this is all very, very speculatory on something 6 months away ... and something that is not in any means my specialty.

SF

[USAwx1]

I hope that the winter is cold and snowy. 02-03 was a snowy winter in d.c area, but 03-04 was below average. Just hoping for a colder and snowier winter. My thoughts however are of a winter similar to the 95-96 episode. The Hudson Bay ice is still large, and similar to the ice in summer of 95. Well just have to wait I guess.

Yep .. IF 2002-2003 does happen to become an analog ... let's hypothetize ... SHOULD 2004-2005 be as comparable as 2002-2003 in regards to QBO, and the ENSO state ... there will be one GLARING difference ... and that's the 10.7cm solar flux which will be MUCH LOWER than in the 2002-2003 season ...

IF that were to occur, the principal storm track could actually be driven slightly farther SOUTH ... assuming slightly colder conditions due to ...

1) less 10.7cm solar flux ... we're heading towards a solar minimum.
2) colder conditions allow for more snowcover/ice provided average to ABV agerage precipitation occurs during the fall months.
3) potential for even colder outbreaks and deeper South systems as the principal storm track in theory is driven further south ... and might even allow for something not seen in a good many years ... a true Miller A GOM storm system.

But ... this is all very, very speculatory on something 6 months away ... and something that is not in any means my specialty.

SF

This is right, however I don't expect this years El Nino to reach moderate strength which 2002-03's did. I expect it to peak as a WEAK event, BUT not decline as quickly after peaking as what it did in 2002-03.

An El NINO of weak strength (especially w/ a frequently -NAO) can mean some ferocious cold outbreaks in the EUS.

Normally, Its the combination of a -NAO and +PNA patterns that produce the coldest possible conditions over the EUS. A +PNA pattern is favored in all el nino years and may be enhanced depending on what's going on SSTA wise in the GOA, that with a pre-determined tendency for a -NAO can expose the EUS to several significant cold outbreaks. Not to mention the mean trough is in the EUS during El Nino winters, and the height center is lower to begin with.

In other words w/ a weak El Nino you still get the STJ enhancement and associated storminess, BUT you don't get the huge net warming effect that comes with strong El Nino events, or the large Pacific low that floods NA with mid air choking off the cold air source region and building above normal heights downstream.

[Anonymous]

I dont think the SSTs will warm to El nino, its not warming... i have been watching the SSTs, it is cooling, cold water is upwelling with trade winds, making a "hook". If you go to a SST map you will see what i am talking about.

The last time ice cover was this much, was the summer of 2000. The winter of 2000-2001 had record breaking snowfall for the great lakes and the northeast, northeast i think? Well i no the great lakes had record breaking snowfall. Although this summer there is more than there was in the summer of 2000. Ice/snow cover is very large in the hudson bay for this time of the year.

[weatherfan]

Accually it is not uncommon to have El nino form in the Western part of the ENSO.In fact doing a cold PDO pase as we are in now El ninos trends to form in El nino regions 3 and 4 more then 1 and 2 which is normally the case in cold PDO phases.We saw this in many of the El nino events in the late 50s and 60s where El nino was mostey in the western part of the ENSO and not the Eastern Part like in 97-98 or 82-83 El ninos.The cooler pool of waters your looking at is in ENSO regins 1 and 2.But if you look in ENSO regins 3 and 4 you diffentey see a trend of warmer water temps which could be where our El nino event may form later on this fall.Just have to see how it all gos and plays out over the next few months.

[USAwx1]

I dont think the SSTs will warm to El nino, its not warming... i have been watching the SSTs, it is cooling, cold water is upwelling with trade winds, making a "hook". If you go to a SST map you will see what i am talking about.

The last time ice cover was this much, was the summer of 2000. The winter of 2000-2001 had record breaking snowfall for the great lakes and the northeast, northeast i think? Well i no the great lakes had record breaking snowfall. Although this summer there is more than there was in the summer of 2000. Ice/snow cover is very large in the hudson bay for this time of the year.

your ideas WRT the ENSO are incorrect. you can CLEARLY see a defined warm plume developing from about 120W to the dateline.

[USAwx1]

Accually it is not uncommon to have El nino form in the Western part of the ENSO.In fact doing a cold PDO pase as we are in now El ninos trends to form in El nino regions 3 and 4 more then 1 and 2 which is normally the case in cold PDO phases.We saw this in many of the El nino events in the late 50s and 60s where El nino was mostey in the western part of the ENSO and not the Eastern Part like in 97-98 or 82-83 El ninos.The cooler pool of waters your looking at is in ENSO regins 1 and 2.But if you look in ENSO regins 3 and 4 you diffentey see a trend of warmer water temps which could be where our El nino event may form later on this fall.Just have to see how it all gos and plays out over the next few months.

thanks for backing me up on that.

[Superstorm]

How about 53-54? It's a QBO match, and has similar temp/precip anomalies.

[USAwx1]

How about 53-54? It's a QBO match, and has similar temp/precip anomalies.

If the ENSO stays neutral, yes, but I'm leaning away from that idea right now.

[weatherfan]

WEATHER53 seems to think now that the anlogs are pointing to a moderate to strong El nino.But I don't quite get how that can be possable giving the ssts in ENSO.We will have to see but calling for a moderate to strong El nino this winter imo is going out on a limp right now.I think its like Dt has stated any winter forecasts right now is useless because until we know more about ENSO and all the alantic singls for this winter.Its all guess and spakation right now at best.In the fall we sould all have a better ideal on what will happen.

[USAwx1]

WEATHER53 seems to think now that the anlogs are pointing to a moderate to strong El nino.But I don't quite get how that can be possable giving the ssts in ENSO.We will have to see but calling for a moderate to strong El nino this winter imo is going out on a limp right now.I think its like Dt has stated any winter forecasts right now is useless because until we know more about ENSO and all the alantic singls for this winter.Its all guess and spakation right now at best.In the fall we sould all have a better ideal on what will happen.

I think it's pretty obvious that El Nino conditons are coming on, however I don't see how a mod/strong event is possibe given that were In the Middle of the PDO negative phase. CLIMO does not favor that sort of thing.