Current MJO

[LarryWx]

The following linked map shows the current MJO situation:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/g ... thly_1.gif

Any comments regarding this map's implications for the Atlantic tropics for the next few days?

[cycloneye]

Right now the grafic shows that the MJO factor is in a dry phase meaning not favorable for tropical development however it doesn't mean that something may form but it will be harder for a system to form under a dry MJO.By mid august the wet phase will invade the atlantic and that is when we will see really a jump on developments

[Stormsfury]

The next phase of the wet MJO cycle is due in right at the time when climatologically speaking, is the most favored for development across the tropical Atlantic.

[USAwx1]

The next phase of the wet MJO cycle is due in right at the time when climatologically speaking, is the most favored for development across the tropical Atlantic.

That alone could be huge (talk about the "lid coming off"). However let's see what the next wet phase does for EPAC activity as the wave propagates eastward.

[LarryWx]

Thanks everyone for your replies. I'm trying to learn more about the MJO cycle and how strong an indicator both the wet phase is for development and the dry phase is for the lack of development.

[rainstorm]

seasons that start in mid/late aug usually are inactive

[Stormsfury]

seasons that start in mid/late aug usually are inactive

This statement is 50% right, 50% wrong ...

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmm........

[rainstorm]

there are very few seasons with 10 or more named storms with the 1st ts after 15aug

[Anonymous]

The next phase of the wet MJO cycle is due in right at the time when climatologically speaking, is the most favored for development across the tropical Atlantic.

That alone could be huge (talk about the "lid coming off"). However let's see what the next wet phase does for EPAC activity as the wave propagates eastward.

Yep, I agree with this statement SF. It will take awhile but in about three weeks, the Atlantic basin should become more active, possibly at a rapid rate. People can't forget that "inactive" early seasons can easily make a 180 degree turn during the main season, or "balance out" so to speak. So by late August/early September, we could, theoretically speaking, be tracking two or three active storms at once.

[wxman57]

Here's a better MJO link:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... index.html

And here's a good link with MJO info:
http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/not ... 2/mjo.html

Here's a good link with past year's MJO cycles:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... entad.html

Below is 2003's MJO graphic. Note the big push east of negative OLR values into the Atlantic basin in June/July. That one led to Bill and Claudette.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_2003.gif

And for 2004. Note only 1 good, strong MJO back in April:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... r_2004.gif