I know that many of the members who want developments to happen fast will be dissapointed with this thread that I am making about the pattern not being right for tropical development YET.First the pattern has to change from troughness meaning east coast trough and TUTT with those many upper lows to a more summerlike one that when that trough goes away from the east coast and the TUTT trough weakens as always it does at the peak months august and september THEN we will see tropical developments.I hate to say this but it will be a slow change from this springlike pattern and that means that we may see things heating really up after mid to late august.And to make things more complicated the MJO factor is now in a dry phase or not favorable.But hang in there folks that in a few weeks the gates of the Cape Verde season will open.
Any comments about my take on what is going on with the patterns are welcomed.
It may take a while
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cycloneye
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It may take a while
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 25, 2004 2:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The_Cycloman_PR
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cycloneye
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The_Cycloman_PR wrote:The magic words, Patience!!
The time will come sooner or later...
Agree 100% patience is a virtue that many dont have.
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vbhoutex
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Unfortunately for those that don't have the patience this pattern will be hanging around for at least a few more weeks. It is this pattern that is bringing cold fronts all the way to the Gulf Coast in July(2nd one close by Houston today) and keeping the GOM deviod of tropical development even when cut off lows form from the troughs. It is this pattern that is disrupting the entire tropical basin as far as development is concerned.
We ALL were spoiled by the last few seasons which featured EARLY developments. Allison, Ana, etc. were all way earlier than "NORMAL" for most hurricane seasons. I'm not going to rehash the statistics on this as they have been posted elsewhere in this forum. Trust us when we say that when this pattern becomes more summer like we will busier than we care to be trying to follow everything and figure out wher it is all going to end up.
We ALL were spoiled by the last few seasons which featured EARLY developments. Allison, Ana, etc. were all way earlier than "NORMAL" for most hurricane seasons. I'm not going to rehash the statistics on this as they have been posted elsewhere in this forum. Trust us when we say that when this pattern becomes more summer like we will busier than we care to be trying to follow everything and figure out wher it is all going to end up.
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I want everyone to take a look at the 0z ECMWF out to 168hrs VT 0z AUG 1
Notice the position of the strong western Atlantic ridge. This is in EXCELLENT position for a potential threat to the East coast IF there was a tropical cyclone present.
The 12z GGEM out to 144hrs is indicating much the same thing as the 0z ECMWF.
7/25 12z Operational GFS is LESS bullish w/ the ridge—going against the ECMWF/GGEM alliance. At 156 hours (valid 0z SUN 8/1) there is NO ridge with 500H heights approaching 594 dm, instead the GFS has a larger ridge which extends all the way from the central Atlantic back into 4-corners region.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif
Point here is, the GGEM/ECMWF version of the pattern the next 7 days would be EXCELLENT if one was looking for a hit somewhere along the SE coast. However that is contingent on development. Without it, it’s a wasted pattern.
We’ll have to see if this repeats its self later toward the peak of the season—in the next 4-8 weeks maybe.
Notice the position of the strong western Atlantic ridge. This is in EXCELLENT position for a potential threat to the East coast IF there was a tropical cyclone present.
The 12z GGEM out to 144hrs is indicating much the same thing as the 0z ECMWF.
7/25 12z Operational GFS is LESS bullish w/ the ridge—going against the ECMWF/GGEM alliance. At 156 hours (valid 0z SUN 8/1) there is NO ridge with 500H heights approaching 594 dm, instead the GFS has a larger ridge which extends all the way from the central Atlantic back into 4-corners region.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162s.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168s.gif
Point here is, the GGEM/ECMWF version of the pattern the next 7 days would be EXCELLENT if one was looking for a hit somewhere along the SE coast. However that is contingent on development. Without it, it’s a wasted pattern.
We’ll have to see if this repeats its self later toward the peak of the season—in the next 4-8 weeks maybe.
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cycloneye
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It will be interesting to see what Dr Gray and NOAA will do in their next outlooks next week first with the numbers if they are going to downgrade them or leave them the same and second what they say about the pattern.
Last edited by cycloneye on Sun Jul 25, 2004 3:54 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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cycloneye
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Yes I posted about what is going on with the pattern but be patience because before you know it the atlantic will open it's gates for developments so it is a matter of time folks and dont throw the towel .
.
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Trader Ron
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Well....
1.I've always said the season starts with me on August 15th. Anything before that is gravy.
2. I believe Dr Gray will lower his forecast to 13 named storms.Maybe even 12.
3.My forecast of 12/6/2 is high. I'm lowering my numbers next week.
4. I NEVER rate a season on how many named storms we have in a given year.
5. The fact is, there are only 3-4 "white knuckle" Tropical events in a given season.
1.I've always said the season starts with me on August 15th. Anything before that is gravy.
2. I believe Dr Gray will lower his forecast to 13 named storms.Maybe even 12.
3.My forecast of 12/6/2 is high. I'm lowering my numbers next week.
4. I NEVER rate a season on how many named storms we have in a given year.
5. The fact is, there are only 3-4 "white knuckle" Tropical events in a given season.
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rainstorm
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cycloneye
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rainstorm wrote:i think everyone will downgrade. maybe a 94 or 97 type season? or 82 or 83
No el nino this year is the difference from those el nino years.It will be basiclly a neutral ENSO during this 2004 season.
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rainstorm wrote:i think everyone will downgrade. maybe a 94 or 97 type season? or 82 or 83
This is REALLY becoming quite aggravating.
YOU KNOW those are years which had VERY low activity. and YOU ALSO KNOW the reason why the had little activity. You are also aware that this year is completely different WRT those cycles in the oceans and as far as the ENSO is concerned.
The pessimism is NOT Necessary.
Ok, second thought i will humor you, IF you can give me a concrete reason why you feel those years are similar to this one and will produce the same level of activity then I will shut my moth if not, the please quit this. It's not making things very easy around here.
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