Short research on years w/ NO JUN or JUL TCs

[USAwx1]

Ok folks, first lets take a look at seasons which had NO JUN or JUL tropical cyclones. Those years were:

1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1962, 1967, 1977, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1992, 2000.

Below is a rundown of the Number of NS, Hurricanes, and Intense canes in those years:

1949: 13/7/4
1950: 13/11/10
1951: 10/8/6
1952: 7/6/4
1953: 14/6/5
1962: 5/3/2
1967: 8/6/2
1977: 6/5/1
1983: 4/3/1
1984: 13/5/1
1987: 7/3/1
1988: 12/6/3
1992: 7/4/3
2000: 14/8/3
Mean: 10/6/3
Long-term Average: 9-10/5-6/2-3

The average number of storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes in the years listed above when compared against the long term average for the Atlantic basin, would indicate a near normal season in 2004.

However if we look at the JUN and JUL ENSO verification in those years and the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific (i.e., the PDO and ATC) we find the following:

1950: Not a match (Weak to Mod La Nina)
1951: MATCH (ENSO neutral) Stats: 13/11/10
1952: Not a match (Weak La Nina)
1953: MATCH (ENSO neutral) Stats: 14/6/5
1962: Not a match (Weak La Nina)
1967: MATCH (ENSO Neutral) Stats: 8/6/2
1977: MATCH (ENSO Neutral) Stats: 6/5/1
1983: Not a Match (Weak El Nino)
1984: Not a Match (Weak La Nina)
1987: Not a Match (Mod El Nino)
1988: Not a Match (Mod La Nina)
1992: Not a Match (Weak El Nino)
2000: Not a Match (Weak La Nina)
Mean: 10.5/7.0/4.5
Long-term Average: 9-10/5-6/2-3
Departure +0.5-1.5/+1.0-2.0/+1.5-2.5

As you can see, in the years which fit our current ENSO profile, had slightly above normal activity in the means

When it comes to the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and pacific, all of the years which matched for the ENSO profile, also fell within the previous ATC strong/PDO negative cycle, w/ 1977 at the tail end.

So what we can conclude from this, for those of you that are worried about a non-active season—is the years which had NO STORMS in the JUN-JUL period (and fit the current ENSO/ATC/PDO profile) had in the means an above average number of storms, hurricanes, and IH’s.

Landfall data:

1951 had one system hit the US. No hurricanes or Majors made landfall in the United States.
1953: 7 TC’s impacted the US, 3 of which were hurricanes and none major.
1967: 2 TC’s made landfall in the US, 1 hurricane and 1 Major.
1977: 1 Tropical system made landfall in the US, it was a hurricane but not major.

Hope this puts everyone’s fears to rest.

[bahamaswx]

Nice research. Thanks.

[kevin]

Climatology operates with such a small set of data...

[rainstorm]

but, if the 1st ts doesnt form till after 15 aug, then the season will be very slow

[USAwx1]

but, if the 1st ts doesnt form till after 15 aug, then the season will be very slow

Well if you for some reason think you can do better research, by all means the stage is yours. I'll go shove my head in a blowhole or something.

[rainstorm]

but, if the 1st ts doesnt form till after 15 aug, then the season will be very slow

Well if you for some reason think you can do better research, by all means the stage is yours. I'll go shove my head in a blowhole or something.

no need to get upset. very good research. i am just saying that if the 1st ts doesnt form till after 15 aug, then this years numbers will be low

[senorpepr]

Great research!

[USAwx1]

thanks.

It's also not to say that this will only be a "Normal" season either. if we consider some of the outlier years (on the active side), there is the potential for considerable Mid and Late season activity.

[bahamaswx]

Indeed. Years like 1951 with 13/11/10 are quite impressive. But as kevin said... climatology works with such a small set of data. That's only 4 years with a similar ENSO profile, not many at all.

[Hurricanehink]

Great point USA. Look at 2001. We only had Allison by this time. Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, all the way through Olga in November! 14 storms formed in the the time that we have for this hurricane season.
2000 had 15 storms in this same time.
99 had 11, but 3 more depressions.
98 having its entire season after this point. There is still plenty of potential for activity, especially considering that we have had busier later seasons.

[vbhoutex]

but, if the 1st ts doesnt form till after 15 aug, then the season will be very slow

Is this just your own thoughts Rainstorm? If it isn't just something you think is logical and pulled out of your own brain, please back it up with a link to where you got it from or tell us who you are getting your information from. I believe USAWx1 made the point quite well that at a minimum we will have a slightly above average year. Personally everything I have seen and probably 90% of the different folks I correspond with, read, etc. are still saying an above normal activity year is in store. Like I stated elsewhere, we are all spoiled by the last few years that we remember and they were unusual years with early starts. They are not the norm-what we are seeing this year is the norm compared to them.

[Stormsfury]

Ok folks, first lets take a look at seasons which had NO JUN or JUL tropical cyclones. Those years were:

1949, 1950, 1951, 1952, 1953, 1962, 1967, 1977, 1983, 1984, 1987, 1988, 1992, 2000.

Below is a rundown of the Number of NS, Hurricanes, and Intense canes in those years:

1949: 13/7/4
1950: 13/11/10
1951: 10/8/6
1952: 7/6/4
1953: 14/6/5
1962: 5/3/2
1967: 8/6/2
1977: 6/5/1
1983: 4/3/1
1984: 13/5/1
1987: 7/3/1
1988: 12/6/3
1992: 7/4/3
2000: 14/8/3
Mean: 10/6/3
Long-term Average: 9-10/5-6/2-3

The average number of storms, hurricanes and intense hurricanes in the years listed above when compared against the long term average for the Atlantic basin, would indicate a near normal season in 2004.

However if we look at the JUN and JUL ENSO verification in those years and the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and Pacific (i.e., the PDO and ATC) we find the following:

1950: Not a match (Weak to Mod La Nina)
1951: MATCH (ENSO neutral) Stats: 13/11/10
1952: Not a match (Weak La Nina)
1953: MATCH (ENSO neutral) Stats: 14/6/5
1962: Not a match (Weak La Nina)
1967: MATCH (ENSO Neutral) Stats: 8/6/2
1977: MATCH (ENSO Neutral) Stats: 6/5/1
1983: Not a Match (Weak El Nino)
1984: Not a Match (Weak La Nina)
1987: Not a Match (Mod El Nino)
1988: Not a Match (Mod La Nina)
1992: Not a Match (Weak El Nino)
2000: Not a Match (Weak La Nina)
Mean: 10.5/7.0/4.5
Long-term Average: 9-10/5-6/2-3
Departure +0.5-1.5/+1.0-2.0/+1.5-2.5

As you can see, in the years which fit our current ENSO profile, had slightly above normal activity in the means

When it comes to the long-term cycles in the Atlantic and pacific, all of the years which matched for the ENSO profile, also fell within the previous ATC strong/PDO negative cycle, w/ 1977 at the tail end.

So what we can conclude from this, for those of you that are worried about a non-active season—is the years which had NO STORMS in the JUN-JUL period (and fit the current ENSO/ATC/PDO profile) had in the means an above average number of storms, hurricanes, and IH’s.

Landfall data:

1951 had one system hit the US. No hurricanes or Majors made landfall in the United States.
1953: 7 TC’s impacted the US, 3 of which were hurricanes and none major.
1967: 2 TC’s made landfall in the US, 1 hurricane and 1 Major.
1977: 1 Tropical system made landfall in the US, it was a hurricane but not major.

Hope this puts everyone’s fears to rest.

1951 and 1953 - Stronger than avg. ATL thermaline circ.
1967 -- tail end of the cycle
1977 -- Weaker than normal ATL thermaline circ.

ALL SIGNS point to a go for an active season.

[rainstorm]

i started with 1940:
41-6
42-10
49-13
62-5
67-8
77-6
83-4
84-13
92-6

total of 71 named storms in 9 years when the season started aug15 or later. slightly less than 8 per season. all i am saying is if the season starts aug15 or later then it will be a below average season.

[USAwx1]

i started with 1940:
41-6
42-10
49-13
62-5
67-8
77-6
83-4
84-13
92-6

total of 71 named storms in 9 years when the season started aug15 or later. slightly less than 8 per season. all i am saying is if the season starts aug15 or later then it will be a below average season.

Ok, now correlate that with the current ENSO conditions and the long-term cycles in the oceans. Just by looking at that I can tell you three of those seasons are gone already.

Do that for me.

[rainstorm]

dont need to. just going by the numbers. to be honest, both our samples are too small to be really meaningful, but i will say if the season starts after 15 aug, it will be below normal

[Derek Ortt]

Maybe Aug 15 is a bit too early. However, one must remember that as of 8/15, thats about 20 percent of the cane season gone. Now, if we go until Aug 20 or later, then we may well have a quiet season.

1984 had its first storm on Aug 28 (aug 18 for subtrop), so while possible that we can still be active, from a named storms sense only as 1984 was actually <b>BELOW</b> average due to only 5 canes and 1 major

[USAwx1]

dont need to. just going by the numbers. to be honest, both our samples are too small to be really meaningful, but i will say if the season starts after 15 aug, it will be below normal

Ok, then I'll do it for you.

62-5 (Weak la Nina, NOT a Match)
67-8 Match (dead neutral)
77-6 (Weak El Nino, NOT a match)
83-4 (Weak El Nino, Not a match)
84-13 (Weak La Nina, not a match)
92-6 (Weak El Nino, Not a match)

I only have the ONI data from 1950 to the present. So I eliminated the seasons during the 40s b/c of a lack of data.

ONLY ONE of your seasons matched solidly.

[Stephanie]

Great summary USAwx1 as usual!

The height of the season doesn't start until the end of August anyway, right?

[cycloneye]

Great summary USAwx1 as usual!

The height of the season doesn't start until the end of August anyway, right?

Right Steph.

[USAwx1]

Great summary USAwx1 as usual!

The height of the season doesn't start until the end of August anyway, right?

Thanks. Your right, Steph. The peak of the Season isn't until the end of AUG through much of SEP. The peak it's self is right around the 10th according to climo. There is also a smaller peak in OCT.