Tropical update

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics reveals a continued quiet trend in the Atlantic while the Pacific is active in a few places. First starting with the dying tropical depression in the eastern Pacific, which was once the first hurricane of the eastern Pacific Hurricane season a few days ago. Now Tropical Depression Celia only has a low cloud swirl remaining with it and the final advisory has been written on this system as of 5 PM EDT. At 5 PM EDT, Celia was centered near latitude 18.8 north, longitude 134.7 west. Movement was toward the west northwest at around 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Expect Celia to gradually dissipate over the next several days. Estimated minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

Meanwhile we have a developing situation occurring over the western Pacific, which could have further implications on the island of Japan over the next 3-5 days. Tropical Storm Namtheun has strengthened to 60 mph with higher gusts. Expect Namtheun to become a typhoon over the next 6-12 hours as it continues towards the northwest at around 9 mph. Namtheun is centered near latitude 24.2 north, longitude 148.8 east. The projected path takes Namtheun west northwest to a position just south of Tokyo within the next 2-3 days before curving west towards the southern islands of Japan within the next 5-6 days. However given how close this system is to the main island of Japan, we're definitely not out of the woods in south central Japan either. This will continue to be monitored.

Meanwhile in the Atlantic, a few disturbances with no chance of tropical development in the immediate future. The first disturbance is a weak low pessure system devoid of convection off the Virginia/North Carolina coast. This system is partly responsible in dragging in northeast winds into the major cities of the northeast keeping a classic cold air damming scenario in place, which is not real common in July. In the Mid Atlantic, this is the time of year where we don't see much cold air damming at all. However from a tropical stand point, no development is expected with this system in the near term as it is situated along a stalled out boundary and has very little convection with it. Also with the upper trough in place across the eastern United States and off the Mid Atlantic coast, winds aloft will definitely not support development in the near term.

The Gulf Of Mexico remains quiet tonight and likewise the Caribbean Sea. East of the Bahama's ain't so quiet with regard to convection. Expect some showers and storms across the Turks and Caicos and across parts of the Bahamas overnight, but no tropical development expected. The focus begins to shift further east into the Cape Verde Islands as several tropical waves have and are forecasted to head west off the coast of Africa. As we approach mid August, the Cape Verde Season begins to crank up. Thus as we go through the next few weeks, we will need to really eye on the Cape Verde Islands for any signs of tropical storm and hurricane development. A few Cape Verde systems of note in 2003 were Fabian and also Isabel, both major hurricanes. But for tonight, no tropical development in this region either.

That's the latest at this time.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks

[bevgo]

Thanks as always for the update. I am trying to catch up with all the developments (or lack of). I have been out of town for over a week. I am afraid my dad died last saturday after an extended illness.