Brrr and Brr again for Floridians

[Amanzi]

Hi guys, I just wanted to share this discussion with ya. I really appreciate this met's daily input and his train of thought is generally spot on or damn near close to it!

2003 Florida Daily Weather Discussion
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci17.htm

#2003-12 Published Wednesday 01/15/03 At 5:00 PM EST

Dewpoints have crashed into the low to mid 20's into the inland areas of the
central peninsula this afternoon. I would expect the sub freezing line to dip
into the inland rural areas of the south central peninsula late tonight, down to
near S.R. 80 west of U.S. 27. Though we will have calm wind conditions that will
promote a huge temperature drop early, the temperature fall should basically
halt after aproximately 3:00 am, due to a more moist NE flow at the boundary
level.

Thursday afternoon 01/16/03 should see a brief temperature warm up to near 70
deg. BUT unfortunately the Arctic cold front will come screaming into the state
on Friday morning, with a steady temperature fall during the day. The central
peninsula will see an advection (windy) freeze into Saturday morning.
Unfortunately advection freezes generally negate naturally warmer locations near
large bodies of water and even in urban locations, with hill locations often
colder then low spots and water irrigation systems less effective.

Early Sunday morning 01/19/03 will also be very cold with a reinforcing shot of
Arctic air arriving, creating an advective freeze situation possibility again. I
still expect early Monday morning 01/20/03 to be bitterly cold under radiational
cooling conditions. Tuesday-Wednesday early mornings 01/21-22/03 look warmer but
still cold. Unfortunately it also appears that the third salvo of Arctic air
that will arrive for Thursday-Friday 01/23-24/03 MAY be even colder yet.

#2003-11 Published Wednesday 01/15/03 At 11:00 AM EST

Yes it was cold in Florida ONCE AGAIN this morning. I can't recall such
consistent cold weather here in the sunshine state since the winter of 1995-96
and 1980-81. The cold spot in the state was 27 deg. at Venus on the south
central peninsula WNW of Lake Okeechobee. Nearby Archbold saw 29 deg. This is in
the heart of the new citrus growing region. The cold spot across the north was
30 deg. at Crestview, with the cold spot across the south at Immokalee with 38
deg.

Other notable minimum temperatures include 30 deg. at Perry, Brooksville and
East Nobleton, 31 deg. at MacClenny and 32 deg. at Inverness, Knights Station
and Mount Plymouth.

In the Tampa Bay area the minimum temperatures early this morning were:

34 deg. Rural West Plant City
32 deg. Rural North Plant City (Knights Station)
36 deg. Urban Climate Station Plant City
35 deg. Suburban East Tampa Vandenberg Airport
38 deg. Rural FAWN Station Dover
42 deg. Suburban Lakeland Linder Airport
39 deg. Suburban NWS Tampa Bay Office Ruskin
38 deg. Rural Balm
43 deg. Urban/Coastal Tampa International Airport
47 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete/Clearwater Airport
41 deg. Urban/Coastal Mac Dill AFB
50 deg. Urban/Coastal St. Pete. Albert Whitted Airport

Looking ahead to the next 7 days. First of all let me say that most all
government and private weather forecasters continue to underestimate the
upcoming one two three punch of Arctic air that will begin invading the state on
Friday 01/17/03, with a second surge on Sunday 01/19/03 and a third surge on
Wednesday 01/22/03.

This is not a criticism just an observation. The problem is an over dependence
on numerical weather forecast models. Absolutely none of the models in existence
have been verifying with any consistency, leaving most with no real clue. As
I've said before, my forecasts are made using persistence, climatology, looking
upstream for verification and also teleconnection patterns. I give weather
forecasting models only a cursory glance.

Looking at the source region of the incoming Arctic air, it's trajectory, it's
current 850 mb core temperature, current snow cover, projected snow cover with
the impending deep south traversing extra tropical low pressure center, a series
of shortwave troughs that will carve out a deep 500 mb long wave trough in the
eastern U.S. I still think that the upcoming freeze events for Friday-Thursday
01/17-23/03 will be significant and "possibly" as bad as January 1996 and 1997.
This forecast my friends is not based on speculation.

The coldest morning should be early Monday 01/20/03. With less standing surface
water across most of the peninsula at the moment compared to previous freeze
events this winter. Also with cold air in place, coupled with low dew points,
clear skies and a calm wind, perfect radiational cooling conditions will occur.
The toughest part of the forecast this far in advance, is trying to determine
the timing and trajectory of cold dry surface high pressure center across the
peninsula. To far west or east by sunrise Monday morning and it will be warmer.
To far south and the agricultural regions of the deep southern peninsula will be
coldest.

This my take on the freeze event today but warmer or colder conditions could
ultimately occur. I expect the subfreezing line to extend southward into the
inland rural Redlands agricultural region SW of Miami. However at this moment
durations below freezing may spare the region widespread damage. The inland
rural heart of the citrus industry from the south central peninsula into the
northern Everglades will see borderline hard freeze conditions (below 28 deg.
for four or more hours), with the coldest isolated pockets seeing upper teens to
low 20's. Inland rural areas of the north central and central peninsula will see
a hard freeze, with the normally coldest areas dipping into the mid and upper
teens. Remember though this forecast is for inland rural areas only. Urban and
coastal regions will be much warmer.

Thomas Giella
FL Meteorological & Climatic Institute
http://www.kn4lf.com/sub/fmci.htm


Sorry about the long post but his ideas and information are really worth sharing, especially if like me you live on a nursery and have 4 acres of plants to protect from cold weather, and NWS says Naaahh don't worry your lo's will only be 40 and I wake up to dead grass and even worse 200 dead queen palm trees

[mf_dolphin]

Yep Amanzi, it's not looking good for us refugees from the cold! I already have my bags packed for the Keys if this keeps up ! Bring on SUMMER!!!!