I just had a random thought tonight. I was thinking about how a few years ago we were under a very dry spell in the southeast, and practically a drought for all of the east coast. Then came Isidore, and it was like it opened a floodgate. From then until this year we have had well above normal amounts of rainfall, and even this year we have had an extremely wet June.
Some would say mother nature has a way of balancing things out. Of course it all really is chance and randomness, and it's easy to personify something that doesn't even have a collective consciousness. Nature doesn't have any personal vendettas against anyone, nor does it seek people or towns out. Niether is any place 'due' a strike with any hurricane, or storm, etc.
However with averages, if it is below average for a while, then it's reasonable to assume that something will be above average for a while to balance it out. So my question is this:
Our Atlantic hurricane season has been very relatively quiet so far. The peak of the season is still over a month away, and I would like to know if anyone things that we could really see a ramp-up in activity over the next few weeks towards Sept. 10th?
For what it's worth, I don't know what will happen. However I wouldn't be surprised if the 2004 season has a few tricks rolled up it's sleeve. I sure remember the 2003 season had a few curve balls anyways.
Nature's way of Balancing Out
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Nature's way of Balancing Out
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Re: Nature's way of Balancing Out
The way it is looking it will come quick and a couple storms could form very rapidly. Things are setting up to have a strong Bermuda High so don't expect any storms to recurve out to see, maybe a couple. Also the MJO will go in a wet phase around the peak of Hurricane Season. The Season is still young but get ready.
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BayouVenteux
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Valkhorn wrote:Well what I just wonder is if the pattern is strong enough if any two tropical storms or hurricanes will 'train' and make landfall along and near the same spot.
Has that ever even happened before? If so, when?
Sure it has. When conditions keep a predominant "flow" present in the 500mb steering winds, it's not that unusual in any given season for, say the North Carolina coast, to get hit by multiple storms in a short period. Dennis and Floyd in '99 come quickly to mind. Here, in just about 2 weeks time, we had TS Isidore and Hurricane Lili make landfall within 70-80 miles of one another in '02. I'm sure there are countless other examples.
You can check track records at:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/index.html
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Andrew '92, Katrina '05, Gustav '08, Isaac '12, Ida '21...and countless other lesser landfalling storms whose names have been eclipsed by "The Big Ones".
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The Dark Knight
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HurricaneBill
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On August 11th, 1955, Hurricane Connie made landfall on North Carolina as a Category 3.
6 days later, on August 17th, Hurricane Diane struck as a Category 2 (Outer Banks only; Category 1 for rest of NC coast)
About a month later, on September 19th, Hurricane Ione made landfall as a Category 3. In a track similar to Emily in 1993, Ione made landfall and then recurved out to sea. However, Ione spent a little more time over the NC coast and was more damaging.
6 days later, on August 17th, Hurricane Diane struck as a Category 2 (Outer Banks only; Category 1 for rest of NC coast)
About a month later, on September 19th, Hurricane Ione made landfall as a Category 3. In a track similar to Emily in 1993, Ione made landfall and then recurved out to sea. However, Ione spent a little more time over the NC coast and was more damaging.
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