It may take a while

[bahamaswx]

What leads you to believe a hurricane in the S. Atlantic would have any significant impact at all on the N. Atlantic hurricane season?

[Matthew5]

Because hurricanes moves heat from the equartor to the poles. So having storms in the south Atlatnic would likely have done that job? Can't say what the changes might be.

[rainstorm]

with both the east and west pac getting active, its going to be awhile for anything in the atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

Matt may have a point about the S Atlantic storms. Some of the latent heat may have been removed from the quatorial Atlantic, which would mean fewer N Atlantic hurricanes. However, what we need is more data so that a statistical correlation can be made between the number of S Atlantic storms and the number of N Atlantic storms to definitively determine whether or not there is a positive or a negative correlation (hopefully, if we just monitor the ******* region then this will be much easier as these storms may not be as unprecedented as we currently believe

[bahamaswx]

Matt may have a point about the S Atlantic storms. Some of the latent heat may have been removed from the quatorial Atlantic, which would mean fewer N Atlantic hurricanes. However, what we need is more data so that a statistical correlation can be made between the number of S Atlantic storms and the number of N Atlantic storms to definitively determine whether or not there is a positive or a negative correlation (hopefully, if we just monitor the ******* region then this will be much easier as these storms may not be as unprecedented as we currently believe

Indeed true, but certainly the limiting factor on the number of N Atlantic hurricanes isn't how much energy exists in the equatorial Atlantic. Were years like 1995 demonstrating much higher SST's basin-wide? Who knows just how many hurricanes would be required to exhaust those latent heat supplies, should enough systems ever manage to form in the first place. I doubt one hurricane in the S. Atlantic would affect anything at all, as there's always masses of excess energy anyway.

[Derek Ortt]

19 storms, but only 1 was a major for any long period of time (Luis)


Also, we must remember that there were only 10 EPAC storms that year, so the number of cyclones may need to neeed greater to allow for the full transport of latent heat.


One correlation that coule be done is for epac storms related to the north and south hemisphere as systems do form in the south epac west of 120W

[senorpepr]

Indeed true, but certainly the limiting factor on the number of N Atlantic hurricanes isn't how much energy exists in the equatorial Atlantic. Were years like 1995 demonstrating much higher SST's basin-wide? Who knows just how many hurricanes would be required to exhaust those latent heat supplies, should enough systems ever manage to form in the first place. I doubt one hurricane in the S. Atlantic would affect anything at all, as there's always masses of excess energy anyway.

Well said. To piggy-back on that...

This season is very much different then any season we have ever seen. The reason for that is, we had two tropical cyclones form in the south Atlantic! Never in the histroy of records could you say that about any season. A tropical storm formed on January 19th then we had the south Atlatnic hurriacane! That was the first hurricane to ever form in the south Atlatnic. None of your reseach is good this year because of it! With out any real record of this happening it is pretty hard to find a year that stands out. This year could be 1 tropical storm or it could be 20 named storms who knows! That is the fun of tracking tropical cyclones. In that is why I do it. So just Watch in see

Don’t think that climatology can be tossed out the window because of a minute anomaly in another basin. This season is not much different than the aforementioned seasons by USAwx1. Just because two systems formed in the South Atlantic doesn’t mean that the North Atlantic season will be dramatically changed. It’s hard to believe that two cyclones, of which one was quite weak, could have moved that much latent heat. That would be like saying because the Western Pacific had two extra storms the Atlantic will have a quiet season.

Additionally you are being completely unfair by saying USAwx1’s research is no good because of the Catarina and the unnumbered cyclone in the South Atlantic. Imagine how long he took to compile that information. It’s not fair to him nor the other mets here that put a large amount of effort to provide statistics based on climatology to have somebody just “trash” it without any bona vide evidence.

Forecasting tropical cyclone seasons, with only a 100 years worth the data. Out of millions if not hundreds of millions of years of tropical cyclones on this planet. Tells that things can happen in maybe even with that being said the south Atlatnic could have 2 or 3 storms every 50 to 100 years??? Or it could be climate change! which throws a screw into the mix of seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. Remember there is patterns with in the weather that change every 5 years or 20 years or even 100 years. Who knows what this season will be like. What I was asking is what do you think having two tropical cyclones in the south Atlantic, would do to the north Atlatnic hurricane season? Yes we will have to see what the season brings.

The key about utilizing climatology is to remember it is based on the past. Sure, one could speculate that the reason this season is experiencing a late start is due to some sort of climate change, but we don’t know that for sure. Why say the season will be quiet without any real proof? That’s like forecasting a temperature of 100°F during a typical weather pattern when climatology says the temperature never goes about 90°F. Sure, it’s possible, but you better have a great reason on why something unusual is bound to happen, especially when the records books, regardless of the data set, says otherwise.

Bottom line, we need to just wait and see what the season produces. It is way too early to start jumping the gun. I'm not sure which is worse, everyone already disregarding this season or people jumping on every single wave to become a named storm. It happens every year.

[Stormsfury]

This season is very much different then any season we have ever seen. The reason for that is, we had two tropical cyclones form in the south Atlantic! Never in the histroy of records could you say that about any season. A tropical storm formed on January 19th then we had the south Atlatnic hurriacane! That was the first hurricane to ever form in the south Atlatnic. None of your reseach is good this year because of it! With out any real record of this happening it is pretty hard to find a year that stands out. This year could be 1 tropical storm or it could be 20 named storms who knows! That is the fun of tracking tropical cyclones. In that is why I do it. So just Watch in see

Umm... excuse me. What does the two South Atlantic systems have to do with the Northern Hemisphere ... absolutely nothing. BOTH weren't even that close to the equatorial ATL waters anyway ... both storms occurred during abnormally high SST's and ULL systems becoming trapped under ridges and working their way down to the SFC.

As for the transfer of heat from the equator to the poles ... this is the Southern Hemisphere we're talking about and the transferrance of any heat would be as miniscule to the atmosphere as a bug farting.

It all boils down to the pattern in the Northern Hemisphere, and a displacement with the Bermuda High for one, dry phase of the MJO, two .. and lastly, the normal amount of dry air in the Tropical Atlantic for this time of year.

This dry air intrusion is very typical this year ... just like every year. That's why July doesn't average but about roughly 1 storm. nothing unusual about this.

[Stormsfury]

Forecasting tropical cyclone seasons, with only a 100 years worth the data. Out of millions if not hundreds of millions of years of tropical cyclones on this planet. Tells that things can happen in maybe even with that being said the south Atlatnic could have 2 or 3 storms every 50 to 100 years??? Or it could be climate change! which throws a screw into the mix of seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. Remember there is patterns with in the weather that change every 5 years or 20 years or even 100 years. Who knows what this season will be like. What I was asking is what do you think having two tropical cyclones in the south Atlantic, would do to the north Atlatnic hurricane season? Yes we will have to see what the season brings.

Not a damn thing. Again the transfer of latent heat released affecting the Northern Hemisphere was as miniscule as a bug fart.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Indeed true, but certainly the limiting factor on the number of N Atlantic hurricanes isn't how much energy exists in the equatorial Atlantic. Were years like 1995 demonstrating much higher SST's basin-wide? Who knows just how many hurricanes would be required to exhaust those latent heat supplies, should enough systems ever manage to form in the first place. I doubt one hurricane in the S. Atlantic would affect anything at all, as there's always masses of excess energy anyway.

Well said. To piggy-back on that...

This season is very much different then any season we have ever seen. The reason for that is, we had two tropical cyclones form in the south Atlantic! Never in the histroy of records could you say that about any season. A tropical storm formed on January 19th then we had the south Atlatnic hurriacane! That was the first hurricane to ever form in the south Atlatnic. None of your reseach is good this year because of it! With out any real record of this happening it is pretty hard to find a year that stands out. This year could be 1 tropical storm or it could be 20 named storms who knows! That is the fun of tracking tropical cyclones. In that is why I do it. So just Watch in see

Don’t think that climatology can be tossed out the window because of a minute anomaly in another basin. This season is not much different than the aforementioned seasons by USAwx1. Just because two systems formed in the South Atlantic doesn’t mean that the North Atlantic season will be dramatically changed. It’s hard to believe that two cyclones, of which one was quite weak, could have moved that much latent heat. That would be like saying because the Western Pacific had two extra storms the Atlantic will have a quiet season.

Additionally you are being completely unfair by saying USAwx1’s research is no good because of the Catarina and the unnumbered cyclone in the South Atlantic. Imagine how long he took to compile that information. It’s not fair to him nor the other mets here that put a large amount of effort to provide statistics based on climatology to have somebody just “trash” it without any bona vide evidence.

Forecasting tropical cyclone seasons, with only a 100 years worth the data. Out of millions if not hundreds of millions of years of tropical cyclones on this planet. Tells that things can happen in maybe even with that being said the south Atlatnic could have 2 or 3 storms every 50 to 100 years??? Or it could be climate change! which throws a screw into the mix of seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclones. Remember there is patterns with in the weather that change every 5 years or 20 years or even 100 years. Who knows what this season will be like. What I was asking is what do you think having two tropical cyclones in the south Atlantic, would do to the north Atlatnic hurricane season? Yes we will have to see what the season brings.

The key about utilizing climatology is to remember it is based on the past. Sure, one could speculate that the reason this season is experiencing a late start is due to some sort of climate change, but we don’t know that for sure. Why say the season will be quiet without any real proof? That’s like forecasting a temperature of 100°F during a typical weather pattern when climatology says the temperature never goes about 90°F. Sure, it’s possible, but you better have a great reason on why something unusual is bound to happen, especially when the records books, regardless of the data set, says otherwise.

Bottom line, we need to just wait and see what the season produces. It is way too early to start jumping the gun. I'm not sure which is worse, everyone already disregarding this season or people jumping on every single wave to become a named storm. It happens every year.

Bahamaswx - very well stated ..
Senorpepr ... I couldn't agree with you more ... Matthew's comment about USAwx1's research was very much out of line, and very well posted ...

[senorpepr]

Not a damn thing. Again the transfer of latent heat released affecting the Northern Hemisphere was as miniscule as a bug farting.

That's a classic quote. Mind if I use it some time?

Anyway, you make a very good point. We should be focusing on the Northern Hemispheric pattern, not something small that occurred in the Southern Hemisphere.

[Stormsfury]

Not a damn thing. Again the transfer of latent heat released affecting the Northern Hemisphere was as miniscule as a bug fart.

That's a classic quote. Mind if I use it some time?

Anyway, you make a very good point. We should be focusing on the Northern Hemispheric pattern, not something small that occurred in the Southern Hemisphere.

Sure ... be my guest ...

[rainstorm]

i think matthew and derek bring up some interesting points

[Stormsfury]

i think matthew and derek bring up some interesting points

Again ... for your viewing pleasure ...

Umm... excuse me. What does the two South Atlantic systems have to do with the Northern Hemisphere ... absolutely nothing. BOTH weren't even that close to the equatorial ATL waters anyway ... both storms occurred during abnormally high SST's and ULL systems becoming trapped under ridges and working their way down to the SFC.

DT had posted some SST maps back in March with the South Atlantic Hurricane and basically nailed the pattern, and the storm. A large pool of abnormally high SSTA's developed between 25º-32ºS latitude with some pockets, the SSTA's exceeded 6ºC. In response, a very large and unusually deep upper level ridge developed over the top of the SFC circ.

Conditions that have to be absolutely perfect for Category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic also apply to having an anomalous tropical cyclone in the South Atlantic. Conditions = Absolutely perfect ...

[Derek Ortt]

could someone provide the correlation between the south epac systems and the north epac systems. This may provide the bets clue to the dispute (cannot ssh into orca from home, so I cannot make this calculation myself, at least until I finish correlating TPW and intensity changes of major hurricanes tomorrow at work)

[rainstorm]

i think matthew is just making the point that this is a rare year. considering how small anyone's sample is, i think he at least makes an interesting point. and i dont think he was being disrespectful in the least when he said it

[senorpepr]

It may be an interesting point, but it's pure speculation. Until the season is actually over and we know what was really in-store of 2004, we have no basis to make the statement. I might as well say we're going to have a dozen category fives simply because there were a couple of weak storms in the South Atlantic.

[rainstorm]

It may be an interesting point, but it's pure speculation. Until the season is actually over and we know what was really in-store of 2004, we have no basis to make the statement. I might as well say we're going to have a dozen category fives simply because there were a couple of weak storms in the South Atlantic.

thats cool, and im not going to blast you for saying it. lets lay off matthew. he just expressed an opinion. i happen to know he loves the tropics and just wants to express his thoughts. lighten up, some.

[Lindaloo]

Helen, you also need to take a chill pill. Patience is the key word here.

[Stormsfury]

i think matthew is just making the point that this is a rare year. considering how small anyone's sample is, i think he at least makes an interesting point. and i dont think he was being disrespectful in the least when he said it

NO one will not dispute that the two SA TC's are not a rare event. It was an added bonus to worldwide tropical weather enthusiasts. The original point of this thread IMHO is the fact that we're off to a more typical start in the NORTH Atlantic ...

More details on a new thread. ...