Short research on years w/ NO JUN or JUL TCs

[ameriwx2003]

There is a graph on this page showing the most active part of the season. As the Graph shows Spring training is about over and the real season is about to begin:):)

http://deved.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/st ... asons1.gif

[Trader Ron]

Vbhoutex wrote:

Is this just your own thoughts Rainstorm? If it isn't just something you think is logical and pulled out of your own brain, please back it up with a link to where you got it from or tell us who you are getting your information from. I believe USAWx1 made the point quite well that at a minimum we will have a slightly above average year. Personally everything I have seen and probably 90% of the different folks I correspond with, read, etc. are still saying an above normal activity year is in store. Like I stated elsewhere, we are all spoiled by the last few years that we remember and they were unusual years with early starts. They are not the norm-what we are seeing this year is the norm compared to them.[/quote]

Why is it when someone downplays the season,they get flamed?

I've seen someone say we will be "Inundated" in the next few weeks.This was posted over TWO weeks ago. I'm still waiting. What was his reason for saying we will be "Inundated" ?
Another person said. The "Lid" is about to come off. I'm still waiting.
It's funny these people "NEVER" get questioned for their logic.

[Rainband]

Excellent data USAwx1

[vbhoutex]

Vbhoutex wrote:

Is this just your own thoughts Rainstorm? If it isn't just something you think is logical and pulled out of your own brain, please back it up with a link to where you got it from or tell us who you are getting your information from. I believe USAWx1 made the point quite well that at a minimum we will have a slightly above average year. Personally everything I have seen and probably 90% of the different folks I correspond with, read, etc. are still saying an above normal activity year is in store. Like I stated elsewhere, we are all spoiled by the last few years that we remember and they were unusual years with early starts. They are not the norm-what we are seeing this year is the norm compared to them.

Why is it when someone downplays the season,they get flamed?

I've seen someone say we will be "Inundated" in the next few weeks.This was posted over TWO weeks ago. I'm still waiting. What was his reason for saying we will be "Inundated" ?
Another person said. The "Lid" is about to come off. I'm still waiting.
It's funny these people "NEVER" get questioned for their logic. [/quote]

I am presuming this is directed at me so I will respond.

1. I HAVE NEVER FLAMED ANYONE ON THIS BOARD OR ANY OTHER BOARD. I AM OFFENDED BY YOUR REMARK!! I asked her to back up her remarks with more than just an off the cuff remark. I do that with many here in case you haven't noticed.

2. I have multiple duties on this site that I do my best to keep up with besides living a "normal" life with my family and my full time job. I do not have time to read and respond to every post on this site, nor do I feel compelled to. If I did I would have much higher post count than I do.

If you have a problem with my posting you have two options. PM me about it and we can discuss it or PM either Chad or Marshall and they will deal with me as they see fit in the situation since they are the ultimate decision makers on this site. Do not make your complaints about me or my posting public!! I do not do that with others and I ask the same respect!!

[Trader Ron]

Well, Well...
It seems i touched a nerve. First of all, it wasn't directed at you in general. I was responding to some of the posters on here who flame people because they downplay a given season. I believe in balance, thats all.
One more thing. Someone forcasted we will have NINE named storms in August. It funny that person didn't give a reason.
It's the same way with Wall St. Most of the so-called experts are ALWAYS Bullish. Tell that to the people who have lost their shirt in 2001 and 2002.

[donsutherland1]

Outstanding analysis, USAwx1. I believe this underscores why one should be patient.

At this time, it makes about as much sense to write off the hurricane season as it does to write off New York City's snowfall prospects if only a trace of snow fell in November and a trace or less in October (23/49 such years saw NYC wind up with 25" or more of snowfall; 15 such years saw NYC receive 30" or more).

[rainstorm]

well, if an el nino breaks out soon then the peak of the season wont be all that big. the east pac is on fire now, and i dont think that bodes well. 12% of the season is over, and if i am right, no african waves will develop for sometime. dry air, increasing shear from the east pac, dry monsoon, and a strong tutt. and, i am less convinced now that a ridge is coming to the east.

[USAwx1]

well, if an el nino breaks out soon then the peak of the season wont be all that big. the east pac is on fire now, and i dont think that bodes well. 12% of the season is over, and if i am right, no african waves will develop for sometime. dry air, increasing shear from the east pac, dry monsoon, and a strong tutt. and, i am less convinced now that a ridge is coming to the east.

Actually that ridge is a positive IF looking for a landfall along the SE coast, SC, GA, FL.

Yes the WPAC is warming and El Nino is coming on, however the fact still remains that there is a Significant split in the SSTA over the region.



2002 is very similar and that season had SIGNIFICANT activity, look at Isidore and Lili. If we take into consideration the ENSO as a whole The warm and cold pools SHOULD cancel each other out and yield pretty much neutral conditions through the remainder of the season.

And what was that you said "12% of the season is over". Ill remind you for my own health (since I'm a know-nothing idiot that is below you on the intelligence scale) that it is 12% of 100% and were only going on 2 months into a season which spans 6.

[USAwx1]

21JUL2004 20.7 -.9 25.2 -.2 27.7 .7 29.4 .9

[senorpepr]

Thanks for sharing the great info. Great work as always.

[USAwx1]

Thanks for sharing the great info. Great work as always.

Thanks SP.