Darby Advisories

#21 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 1:59 pm

Sounds reasonable. It already is a hurricane, IMO, and it will be officially upgraded at 5. An eye is forming, great sea surface temps, it could make it to major hurricane status.

#22 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 2:04 pm

I think it has a good shot at rapidly intensifying and becoming the first EPAC major hurricane since Hurricane Kenna 21 months ago.

Anonymous · #23 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 2:17 pm

100-120 as of now. If it is a hurricane at 5pm and forms a well defined eye tonight, I MAY up my forecast more in the 115-140 mph range.

Swimdude · #24 Postby **Swimdude** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 2:52 pm

I definately predit a nice looking eye coming from this one... Here's the most recent sattelite shot...

bahamaswx · #25 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 3:01 pm

Depends how long it can manage to stay over those warm waters. Moving WNW the water will become too cold around 16N, and Darby shouldn't take much more than 2 days to cross 16N.

#26 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 3:54 pm

THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE IS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO CALL
THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT 3.5 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE...
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM
WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
THEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF DARBY BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THEN
STRENGTHENING FURTHER ARE HIGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND
GFDL MODELS.

DARBY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS TO ITS WEST.
THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW DARBY TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.
IF DARBY WEAKENS MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO COOL WATERS...THE
CYCLONE COULD MOVE MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W 75 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W 80 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 01/1800Z 19.0N 141.0W 55 KT

So not quite a hurricane yet, and not even cat. 2. We'll see what happens.

bahamaswx · #27 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 4:01 pm

I wouldn't have upgraded it either; even with the eye forming Darby appears rather ragged. I'd say by the next advisory he'll have had enough time to get his act together. Should look much more impressive then.

Anonymous · #28 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 4:23 pm

I am keeping 105 mph.

rainstorm · #29 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 6:02 pm

nice forecast

Anonymous · #30 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 6:40 pm

I am going with my gut. For Celia, my gut said 80 mph. But, I went for 75 mph as a peak. It DID peak at 80 mph, but I forecast 75 mph before the NHC even forecast it.

LA Storm Tracker · #31 Postby **LA Storm Tracker** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 7:36 pm

Darby seems to be getting better organized this evening as strong convection is now forming over the storm's center. This could be the beginning of a strengthening phase that would bring Darby to hurricane status late tonight. Stay tuned up for the Atlantic!

Derek Ortt · #32 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 9:02 pm

of course no threat to land for the rest of this week. I sure need to find a hobby after seeing just how much I wrote on Darby this evening, lol

http://www.nwhhc.com/epac052004forecast.html (graphics, from 11 a.m. available on the home page link)

#33 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 9:45 pm

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0234.shtml?

Derek Ortt · #34 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 9:47 pm

25 that once best track comes out that this will be a hurricane at the present time

#35 Postby **Andrew92** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 9:55 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:25 that once best track comes out that this will be a hurricane at the present time

Sorry I'm not as active as many others are....just don't have as much to say as others.

I agree....but sticking with the NHC for now as well.

-Andrew92

rainstorm · #36 Postby **rainstorm** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 10:26 pm

nice write up!!

bahamaswx · #37 Postby **bahamaswx** » Tue Jul 27, 2004 10:27 pm

Nice indeed.

Anonymous · #38 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 3:07 am

I guess as of 4am I will keep 105 mph.

bahamaswx · #39 Postby **bahamaswx** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 3:18 am

Still no eye popping out... but he definitely is strengthening slowly. Looks quite impressive now.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #40 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Jul 28, 2004 3:18 am

Hurricane Darby (05E)
28/06Z
14.5N 121.7W
80 mph
983 mb / 29.03"

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