Possible Tropical Development??

[hurricanemike]

from 0530 PM TWO:

ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...IS LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.


0805 PM TWD:

A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 70W FROM HISPANIOLA N TO 29N
CONTINUES... BUT IS INDEPENDENT OF TO THE TROPICAL WAVE FEATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 58W-60W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 58N-65N. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

[LA Storm Tracker]

The area of disturbed weather 500 miles east of the Bahamas is under the attack of a mid/upper low pressure that is producing wind shear of 20-30 knots over the area. Unless this low retrogrades west or southwest enough to allow the ridge over the Atlantic to spread over the area and thus lessening the shear, then the system is going to have a hard time getting its act together.

[hurricanemike]

00Z NOGAPS 500 mb Heights/Rel Vorticity shows that Upper Low E of the Bahamas seeking SW with time into to Central Caribbean.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=ngp_namer&prod=500&dtg=2004072800

12Z GFS 500 mb Heights/Rel Vorticity gradually moves the Upper Low to the SE FL coast by 00Z 31 Aug where it begans to lose the feature.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_all.cgi?type=prod&area=gfs_namer&prod=500&dtg=2004072712

Models initalized well as Upper Low seeing moving SW on the WV Loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

[george_r_1961]

Its definitely something to watch although I wouldnt get too concerned yet. The shear over the area will be slow to subside IMO

[stormcloud]

Second run in a row that the ETA has closed a surface low off in the eastern Gulf by this weekend.