72 hours or so?

[alicia-w]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/avntc2.cgi?time=2004072806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

This model run shows something developing in the Atlantic in about 72 hours. Thoughts?

[yoda]

I can't read the runs very well... so ar we talking over by the CV islands? Or near the bahamas?

[yoda]

LOL!! Never mind... I messd up. I see where you are looking now. We will have to wait and see though.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 280626
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
203 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TDY THRU FRI)...TWO VERY WET DAYS IN STORE AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS. EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS IN QUESTION
WITH VERY LIGHT FLOW AGAIN TODAY. I IMAGINE A FEW ISOLATED
PLACES WILL RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS IN THE PEACE RIVER VALLEY. 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN QUITE A FEW OTHER PLACES WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO
THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES IS WARRANTED.

BY THURSDAY...ALL MODELS ARE NOW DEVELOPING DEEPER
EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...BUT STILL QUITE LIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...MEANING A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
THE COAST. ETA WINDS AT LOW LEVELS LOOK TOO STRONG BASED ON LITTLE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...SO PREFER GFS.

FRIDAY THE ETA IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IN DEEP DRY AIR
OVER THE NORTHERN FA THAN THE GFS. I PREFER TO GO MORE WITH
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND KEEP POPS ABOVE CLIMO FOR NOW...BUT DRIER
SOLUTION MAY BE IN ORDER WITH FUTURE FORECASTS BASED ON CURRENT
WATER VAPOR TRENDS.

.EXTENDED (FRI NGT THRU TUE)...MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE POPS THRU
THE EXT PERIOD. WITH DEEP RIDGING STRENGTHENING FROM THE W ATLANTIC
ON SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS SET UP IS
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME FLOW REGIME FOR THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE SEABREEZES WITH AFTERNOON/EVENING COLLISION CONVECTION OVER
THE AREA. WILL INCREASE POPS WITH NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...CONTINUED QUIET OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE WILL BE LOTS OF LIGHTNING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT PLENTY OF RAIN ALSO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 089 076 089 076 / 80 50 70 50
FMY 090 074 090 074 / 80 50 70 50
GIF 090 075 090 075 / 80 40 70 40
SRQ 087 074 087 074 / 80 50 70 50
BKV 090 073 090 073 / 80 50 70 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

ALSHEIMER/DAVIS

[yoda]

So what does that mean Rainband? Your highlighted text?

[Rainband]

It means the bremuda high may be coming back to town.

[Steve H.]

This has been showing up for several runs now alicia. Expect development over the weekend!!

[yoda]

We will have to wait and see guys. Could any mets here give some ideas?

[bahamaswx]

GFS has been developing this wave since the 12Z run yesterday, and persistance is a good sign... but as of now no other globals have jumped on board with this one.

[yoda]

Where does the GFS take the wave?

[yoda]

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEARING PUERTO RICO ALONG
64W/65W S OF 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE DOES NOT APPEAR
WELL-DEFINED IN THE UPPER AIR TIMESECTIONS BUT DOES DISPLAY A
FAIR SATELLITE SIGNATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL E OF THE WAVE AXIS OWING TO AN
AREA OF MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WLY FLOW OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. AS A
RESULT...THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WAS UNABLE TO MAKE MUCH
WESTWARD PROGRESS AND REMAINS JUST E OF THE ISLANDS TODAY WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19N60W TO 10N53W. SATELLITE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE
BAHAMAS WHERE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS GENERATING DYNAMICS/LIFT.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS AREA OF DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN PRIMARILY N OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
AMPLE MOISTURE COULD CREATE A FLARE UP OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES OVER PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA
TODAY/TOMORROW.

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 281739
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
135 PM EDT WED JUL 28 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU FRI)...LAST FEW MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
FOCUSING ON TAKING A SFC WAVE ACROSS S FL TONIGHT...AND INTO THE SE
GULF THURS...CONTINUING INTO THE CENT GULF FRI. GIVEN THIS SYSTEM
SEEMS TO STEM FROM THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OFF THE SE FL COAST...
THE SOLUTION LOOKS REASONABLE. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS THRU
FRI OVER THE S FA. MODELS DIVERGE ON POPS FOR FRI...WITH THE ETA
FALLING BACK INTO THE CHC RANGE...BUT THE GFS KEEPS LIKELY ALL
AREAS. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUE TREND FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS FOR FRI
OVER THE N 1/2 OF THE AREA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST...BEHIND CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF.

.EXTENDED (FRI NGT THRU WED)...FLOW TO BECOME MORE S/SE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVER
THE STATE. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN A MORE TYPICAL SEA BREEZE REGIME
WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING FOR HIGH-END SCATTERED POPS.
TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF THURS-SAT. FOR NOW...PLAYING FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE WEAK...
KEEPING WINDS LESS THAN 15 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 076 089 076 089 / 40 70 50 50
FMY 074 087 074 089 / 50 70 50 60
GIF 075 090 075 090 / 40 70 40 50
SRQ 074 087 074 087 / 40 70 50 60
BKV 073 090 073 090 / 30 70 50 50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM.......MORALES
LONG TERM........COLSON

[alicia-w]

The model is indicating an entirely different system, waaaaaayyyy east of that one....

it's showing something that should be about mid atlantic in 72 hours, nowhere near FL by then.

[vbhoutex]

Basically we need to watch it. It is on the back side of the dry air and dust so it will not be inhibited as much as the waves ahead of it have been.