5:30 TWO=Both systems with potential for TD formation

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:16 pm

TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
THE DRY TORTUGAS. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

The question is which of them will form first.

Website · #2 Postby **Brent** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:20 pm

#3 Postby **Hurricanehink** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:25 pm

I have a feeling 99L may develop first. 90L along the road might, but 99L is still pretty well organized. Come on recon!

Stormchaser16 · #4 Postby **Stormchaser16** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 4:38 pm

If one were to develop first it would most likely be 99L IMO as that system seems to be the most organized ATT. 90L doesnt look bad, but it doesnt look too great either, I think being that 99L is most likely the strongest of the systems, it will inhibit the development of 90L for the next 24-36 HRS, then after that 90L probably has a better shot at becoming a named system as well. Development of both/if any would most likely be slow to occur.

kevin · #5 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:16 pm

When this bouy (Dry Tortugas) http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=DRYF1
reaches 29.80, we should all celebrate. =D

Valkhorn · #6 Postby **Valkhorn** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:24 pm

Kevin,

It's at 29.84 right now...

kevin · #7 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:46 pm

If it can go down from 29.84 to 29.80, it will have shown the low level circulation persistently strengthening. Not that 29.80 is an exceedingly low pressure, but its something I don't think that bouy will reach anytime soon. So if it does... I'll be more excited.

The Dark Knight · #8 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:48 pm

Are you guys talking about the Florida system????....

kevin · #9 Postby **kevin** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:49 pm

Yes. Dry Tortugas is a neat little place in the gulf. =)

rainstorm · #10 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Jul 29, 2004 5:51 pm

tropics are heating up!!!

5:30 TWO=Both systems with potential for TD formation

5:30 TWO=Both systems with potential for TD formation

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