Tropics

[WXBUFFJIM]

A look at the tropics reveals two special features in the Atlantic Basin and 3 other features in the Pacific, which are of tropical characteristics right now. Starting first with the western Atlantic where from the southern Bahamas near 22N73W to 30N71W, we have a trof at the surface this morning. The trof is combined with a strong mid to upper level disturbance. Broad upper divergence to the east of this system is helping to generate showers and strong thunderstorms this morning. This system may possibly be forming a surface low pressure system and thus becoming a bit better organized with time. As a result of that, we maybe looking at a tropical depression over the western Atlantic in the next day or so. The projected path takes this system towards the North Carolina coast over the next couple of days with heavy rain the primary threat with this storm system starting later Sunday into Monday for the Mid Atlantic coastal waters. Rainfall totals of over 2 inches are possible with this particular system.

Meanwhile the Gulf Of Mexico is also hopping this morning where a 1010 mb low pressure system at the surface is situated about 120 nautical miles west northwest of Key West, FL. This system is nearly stationary this morning. Then surface trof extends from the low northward to Penacola, FL while a second trof is situated eastwards from Florida Bay to Miami area. Convection remains south of the center and is over 100 miles to the north of the north coast of Cuba. Hence this system remains disorganized this morning and any development into a tropical cyclone should be very gradual if any over the next day or two in the Gulf.

Meanwhile the Pacific is pretty busy with three tropical entities of note. Hurricane Darby is weakening very quickly as colder water and higher shear is croaking this system. Darby is centered as of 5 am edt near latitude 18.6 north, longitude 130.8 west. Movement is west northwest at near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts. Significant weakening is expected and Darby should dissipate quickly over higher shear and cooler waters next few days. Darby peaked at near 125 mph yesterday.

We also have a tropical depression #6E at near 16.3 north, 117.7 west. max winds are near 30 mph. However this system is pretty much croaked and the last advisory has been written on this system.

Further west, Japan could be seeing typhoon conditions over the next few days as typhoon Namtheun approaches southern Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now near 85 mph with higher gusts. Namtheun is situated near latitude 31.9 north, longitude 135.7 east. Movement is west northwest at near 9 mph.

That's the situation at this time.

Jim

[rainstorm]

thanks for the info

[The Dark Knight]

Nice post.....