Flame away, but I think it's time to write off 90L

[OtherHD]

The broad circulation is moving NW away from the convection (what little there is). Run a visible GHCC loop--it's very evident--off to the WNW of Key West. I don't see a trace of a circulation anywhere else in the vicinity.

99L on the other hand has gotten better organized at the surface with the circulation center on the NW edge of the moisture plume. It's moving at a pretty good pace toward the coast, so don't look for it to become all that strong. Moderate TS is stretching it, IMO, unless it can get some major convective organization soon.

[OtherHD]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[Stormcenter]

The broad circulation is moving NW away from the convection (what little there is). Run a visible GHCC loop--it's very evident--off to the WNW of Key West. I don't see a trace of a circulation anywhere else in the vicinity.

99L on the other hand has gotten better organized at the surface with the circulation center on the NW edge of the moisture plume. It's moving at a pretty good pace toward the coast, so don't look for it to become all that strong. Moderate TS is stretching it, IMO, unless it can get some major convective organization soon.

Why worry about being flamed. It's you're opinion and your entitled to it. You can see the circulation much better on this satellite view though. I would NOT write this off for one second.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[HURAKAN]

90L is not over, even without convection during the last hours the surface pressures have continued to drop, and a formidable circulation is visible in the QuikSCAT. Give it the weekend and Monday the story may be different.

[vbhoutex]

I'm not ready to put this one to rest yet, but a quick look at bouys all over the GOM shows rising, not falling pressures. This low needs DESPERATELY to get some convection around the center if it is to survive much longer, imo.

[Air Force Met]

The circulation is very broad...but also very large. It takes up the eastern 1/3 of the GOM and west winds all the way down to the yuc. I would not write off anything with that kind of circulation. Once it gets done with its battle of dry air...then it has a chance. The circulation is large enough that it will hang on for a while.

Add to that the fact that pressures are 2 mb lower now than they were at this time yesterday. Something is going on for the pressure to keep falling. Of course...with broad centers it takes a while for them to get going because the convection never forms near the center but on the outskirts because that is where the convergence is. The upper levels will be good and the water temps are ripe. All it needs is a little time. IT probably will not have a chance until tomorrow.

[Air Force Met]

Hey VB...the pressures are rising because of diurnals. There is a diurnal peak at 10 PM and 10 AM...and a diurnal fall at 4 am and 4 pm. The biggest diurnal rise comes at 10 am with the biggest fall at 4pm. To see what the pressures are really doing you need to look at 24 hours before. Doing this shows the pressures have fallen 2 mb in the system.

Remember...in weak systems like this...diurnal changes can mask what is really going on...especially in the morning (with a rise) and the afternoon (with a fall).

[vacanechaser]

Add to that the fact that pressures are 2 mb lower now than they were at this time yesterday.

thats right.. down to about 1008 mb low now... even with the convection being blown off, the low continues to strengthen... this thing is not over by any stretch... give it till tomorrow... it will be even further west and moving under a god ridge where the atmosphere should continue to improve...

99l... 12z ships model brings it to 63mph... could be interesting for the carolinas this weekend... this reminds me of gustav in 2002... same area and a hybrid system.. the transition is slow to warm core and a low level center.. but that has happened... 1012mb... just a matter of time...

[Javlin]

It appears to that 90L might be moving NW right now toward the mouth of the MS. river.It could be the angle of camera shot.1008mb thats getting down there a little and no thunderstorm activity.

[vbhoutex]

AFM, thanks for the detailed explanation. I did not realize when the highs and lows were,except I knew there was always an afternoon drop. and honestly did not think to look back and compare 24 hrs before, even though I do look back that far. Very good point that it is still deepening as a low even though it is devoid of convection.

I have been reluctant to jump on the more westerly band wagon until you pointed out the big spin moving NW is really a vort max swirling around the real center of low pressure which is SW of that(my eyes were not decieving me earlier, I let the vort max trick me though)and still moving W or even WSW. The longer it stays South and the further West it travels the more of a problem it becomes for the W GOM area, since it could now easily miss the trough to its North.

[Air Force Met]

It appears to that 90L might be moving NW right now toward the mouth of the MS. river.It could be the angle of camera shot.1008mb thats getting down there a little and no thunderstorm activity.

Your seeing the vort max that is rotating around. If you look at a high res GHCC loop and watch the cloud motions you will see that the center is further south than the storm relative center (which is actually a low level vort max rotating around the center).

The way you can find the center is look at those cloud elements and watch each one to see which way it is going. You will see that in the place you think the center is...to the south of that the clouds are still moving w-wnw. You are looking for clouds that are moving east and you will see that near 25/85.