TD likely this afternoon....

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TD likely this afternoon....

#1 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:26 am

After looking at morning satellite imagry, and reading the latest 11:30 TWO, the chacnes for the Bahamas system to develop is looking very good. Comments welcome.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS FORMING IN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED
ABOUT 270 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION
HAS FORMED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH...AND INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.
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Guest

#2 Postby Guest » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:38 am

I was wondering also about two things.

1) What are the chances of being a subtropical system.

2) wHat are the latest model runs.

Comments welcome.
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Air Force Met
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#3 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:55 am

I think it will be purely a TD...and that it will go in near GA/SC border sometime on Sunday....probably as a strong tropical storm or min cat 1 (but more likely a TS).
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chadtm80

#4 Postby chadtm80 » Fri Jul 30, 2004 10:57 am

I keep checking NRL expecting to see the good old No Name
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#5 Postby yoda » Fri Jul 30, 2004 11:01 am

I disagree there Air Force Met. While I don't have any model backups right now, I believe the storm will hit somewhere near the NC area. As for the strength... I will say it will end up somewhere in the range of 60-80 mph.
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