TD #1 does NOT form in the Atlantic

[Air Force Met]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI JUL 30 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 275
MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTY WINDS BUT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED. THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORBALE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...OCCASIONALLY HEAVY...OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE
DRIFTING WESTWARD AND STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

[lilbump3000]

Figures never really had thunderstorms concentrated near the center all day.

[Air Force Met]

Figures never really had thunderstorms concentrated near the center all day.

I thought they would upgrade it. After all...they NAMED Grace and this is better organized than she was

[Brent]

Oh well, I still think it'll develop soon.

[HURAKAN]

Not right now but in the near future.

[hurricanedude]

just because it wasnt upgraded doesnt mean a thing...once the Tstorms get going, this thing could explode, and remember...these things tend to develop there quickest at night...so in the morning we could indeed have Alex on our hands and coastal residents from Ga to Va need to heed this potential!!

[The Dark Knight]

My friend, also read: THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORBALE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

[WXBUFFJIM]

Storms tend to max out in the tropics later at night and hence this western Atlantic system could potentially do the same. It's definitely worth keeping an eye on this.

Jim

[Brent]

My friend, also read: THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORBALE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A
TROPICAL STORM TO FORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

Exactly.

[Stormsfury]

Figures never really had thunderstorms concentrated near the center all day.

I thought they would upgrade it. After all...they NAMED Grace and this is better organized than she was

The only reason for the GRACE-ious naming of Grace was that it had a tremendous amount of convection lined in a trough with a small circ. found by RECON to have winds to tropical storm force in a narrow swath embedded within the convection. This one is by definition definitely closed off, but convection isn't concentrated enough ... and I applaud the TPC/NHC for holding off the upgrade ATT ...

[Rainband]

just because it wasnt upgraded doesnt mean a thing...once the Tstorms get going, this thing could explode, and remember...these things tend to develop there quickest at night...so in the morning we could indeed have Alex on our hands and coastal residents from Ga to Va need to heed this potential!!

Minimal TS making landfall in SC late tomorrow evening