Brownsville discussion on 90L.....

[Johnny]

ALL EYES LOOK TO THE GULF AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS WITH ITS TRACK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTER RANGE MODELS CONTINUE ITS
MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE IT GETTING PICKED UP BY THE UPPER
TROUGH DIVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
DRIFTING BY TO THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
ENHANCE THE DAILY SEABREEZE SHOWERS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE
SEAS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE LONGER RANGE MODELS DO NOT AMPLIFY THE
PLAINS TROUGH AND CONTINUE THE GULF LOW ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE GULF. THIS WOULD ALSO ALLOW THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO WEST
TEXAS TO MOVE IN EARLIER...PUSHING THE GULF SYSTEM FARTHER INTO
MEXICO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE GULF LOW COULD MOVE TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN GET SHEARED IN HALF BUT THE TROUGH PULLING MOST OF IT
NORTH AND THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE PULLING A SMALLER SECTION OF IT
SOUTH...WHICH IS WHAT THE GFS HINTS AT. IN ANY CASE THE LOW IS
MOVING INTO AN AREA THAT ISN'T FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
BEFORE REACHING LAND. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WE WILL HOLD ON TO OUR
INITIAL FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM GETTING CAUGHT BY THE PLAINS TROUGH.



Any thoughts on the discussion?

[Rainband]

yep, Local met said the same thing