WHAT IF NEITHER DEVELOP?

[rainstorm]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

[Stormchaser16]

Could you please stop? Please?

The fact that the trough is coming back, at least to my understanding, wont inhibit development in the tropics, it just wont allow them to make landfall along the east coast...... therefore in this sense i fail to see the point in your argument that this season will be anything like 1992, sorry.

[Stormsfury]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

Yeah, but your Bermuda High is in the picture as well ... something I read about ..

[rainstorm]

i read it from a famous poster on another board. maybe all that warm water in the northwest atlantic wont produce a ridge afterall. we will find out soon i guess

[Lindaloo]

She is talking about "HM" folks.

[boca]

Rainstorm,I think we'll still have an active season,but if the trough sets up it would just affect the steering of the systems not the number.

[Anonymous]

oh boy, this would make me mad if that happens, especially after an extremely boring May, June and July down here ! Brrrrrrrr

[rainstorm]

the consensus seems to be an even bigger trough in aug. hopefully thats wrong. way too much rain here

[Andrew92]

i read it from a famous poster on another board.

Just because they're "famous" doesn't mean they're right or good. Not to slam anyone per se, it's just the truth.

I fully believe that at least a tropical depression will form out of the disturbance heading toward South Carolina and that the season will be very active. As far as landfalls are concerned, we'll know soon enough about that.

-Andrew92

[Anonymous]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

Oh-no!! Not another Andrew!!!! LOL I agree about the trough being dangerous especially with the stronger than normal bermuda high keeping the storms from recurving until near the US, Then they reach the trough which would be there just in time to pick up a cane and slam it into the East coast or even run the entire coast Trough could be bad news as we approach the peak an it could be a destructive season indeed.

[Stormchaser16]

Thats not her point though, she thinks the trough is going to prevent storms from developing

[rainstorm]

Thats not her point though, she thinks the trough is going to prevent storms from developing

yep, just like in 92. the trough will be well off shore and the azores high will be too far south and east

[bahamaswx]

Well the trough would technically prevent anything forming in the GOM for the most part.

[Stormchaser16]

Depends on how amplified and deep the trough is

[rainstorm]

i read it should be deeper than it has been

[donsutherland1]

Rainstorm,

Several points:

1) Hurricane Season 2004 is not likely to be a repeat of 1983, 1997, etc.

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1957.......1.01.......8
1965.......1.21.......6
1972.......1.45.......4
1982.......1.58.......5
1983.......1.19.......4
1987.......1.81.......7
1992.......1.02.......6
1993.......1.23.......8
1997.......2.33.......7

Average named storms: 6.1

2) As opposed to the above May-November MEI averages, the MEI has averaged 0.357 so far since May 2004.

Here's how years fared with an MEI in the 0.057-0.657 range:

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1951.......0.58.......10
1953.......0.35.......14
1958.......0.47.......10
1963.......0.44.........9
1969.......0.52.......17
1976.......0.50.........8
1979.......0.59.........8
1980.......0.52.......11
1990.......0.33.......14
1998.......0.13.......14
2003.......0.26.......16
Average named storms: 11.9

3) But that's not all, let's take into consideration the westerly QBO.

Here's what remains:

Year.......Named Storms
1953.......14
1969.......17
1980.......11
1990.......14

Average named storms: 14.0

So, "what if neither develop?"

Don't worry too much. The global indices strongly hint that even if the first named storm doesn't develop until August, could well be one of 36% of such seasons that still winds up with 10 or more named storms.

Enjoy the weekend.

[Thunder44]

Geez, And I thought Lixon Avila was the "Angel of Death"

[rainstorm]

Rainstorm,

Several points:

1) Hurricane Season 2004 is not likely to be a repeat of 1983, 1997, etc.

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1957.......1.01.......8
1965.......1.21.......6
1972.......1.45.......4
1982.......1.58.......5
1983.......1.19.......4
1987.......1.81.......7
1992.......1.02.......6
1993.......1.23.......8
1997.......2.33.......7

Average named storms: 6.1

2) As opposed to the above May-November MEI averages, the MEI has averaged 0.357 so far since May 2004.

Here's how years fared with an MEI in the 0.057-0.657 range:

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1951.......0.58.......10
1953.......0.35.......14
1958.......0.47.......10
1963.......0.44.........9
1969.......0.52.......17
1976.......0.50.........8
1979.......0.59.........8
1980.......0.52.......11
1990.......0.33.......14
1998.......0.13.......14
2003.......0.26.......16
Average named storms: 11.9

3) But that's not all, let's take into consideration the westerly QBO.

Here's what remains:

Year.......Named Storms
1953.......14
1969.......17
1980.......11
1990.......14

Average named storms: 14.0

So, "what if neither develop?"

Don't worry too much. The global indices strongly hint that even if the first named storm doesn't develop until August, could well be one of 36% of such seasons that still winds up with 10 or more named storms.

Enjoy the weekend.

but what if the trough is so powerful it cancels out all the other factors?

[chadtm80]

Rainstorm,

Several points:

1) Hurricane Season 2004 is not likely to be a repeat of 1983, 1997, etc.

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1957.......1.01.......8
1965.......1.21.......6
1972.......1.45.......4
1982.......1.58.......5
1983.......1.19.......4
1987.......1.81.......7
1992.......1.02.......6
1993.......1.23.......8
1997.......2.33.......7

Average named storms: 6.1

2) As opposed to the above May-November MEI averages, the MEI has averaged 0.357 so far since May 2004.

Here's how years fared with an MEI in the 0.057-0.657 range:

Year.......MEI.......Named Storms
1951.......0.58.......10
1953.......0.35.......14
1958.......0.47.......10
1963.......0.44.........9
1969.......0.52.......17
1976.......0.50.........8
1979.......0.59.........8
1980.......0.52.......11
1990.......0.33.......14
1998.......0.13.......14
2003.......0.26.......16
Average named storms: 11.9

3) But that's not all, let's take into consideration the westerly QBO.

Here's what remains:

Year.......Named Storms
1953.......14
1969.......17
1980.......11
1990.......14

Average named storms: 14.0

So, "what if neither develop?"

Don't worry too much. The global indices strongly hint that even if the first named storm doesn't develop until August, could well be one of 36% of such seasons that still winds up with 10 or more named storms.

Enjoy the weekend.

but what if the trough is so powerful it cancels out all the other factors?

but What if you stop Trolling?

[OtherHD]

but what if the trough is so powerful it cancels out all the other factors?

but What if you stop Trolling?

omg..roflmao