Alex Advisories

[USAwx1]

You can see on the JAX 88D (in the right hand corner) a portion of the convection associated with the system

[Stormchaser16]

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Do 20 images and animate then click on Alex

Still multiple vortices, but there is one developed one diving down towards the main convection, not sure if there is already a circulation under the convection already yet tho? Can anyone overlay the center of circulation position on a sat map for me?

[Stormsfury]

After looking at some close up vis loops, I have to say that it appears as if the center under the convection is starting to become dominant. It looks as if the centers to the north are weakening and that the inflow is starting to converge around the new center

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml

Charleston's Doppler also supports the increased inflow towards the blob of precip offshore.

This is going to be an interesting next 12-18 hours.

Hey, Dan, one of those vorticies earlier this afternoon produced a small squally area of rain/thunderstorms ... although, there wasn't much wind associated with it, it did produce .60" of rain in just 15 minutes ... as long as there aren't any major surprises, beneficial coastal rains should be a result.

SF

[Stormsfury]

Nice pics... Where do you get them?? Is it some pro met program....

Not really, anyone can use it. Same with AWIPS/GEMPAK or PCGRIDDS. All are really great only problem is you have to have a linux OS---it does not run under windows.

poop ... that figures ...

[Dan]

Hey, Dan, one of those vorticies earlier this afternoon produced a small squally area of rain/thunderstorms ... although, there wasn't much wind associated with it, it did produce .60" of rain in just 15 minutes ... as long as there aren't any major surprises, beneficial coastal rains should be a result.

SF

Just courious, have there been any reports of a waterspout today near the Charleston area? Waterspouts are common on the outer eges of tropical systems.

[Stormsfury]

Hey, Dan, one of those vorticies earlier this afternoon produced a small squally area of rain/thunderstorms ... although, there wasn't much wind associated with it, it did produce .60" of rain in just 15 minutes ... as long as there aren't any major surprises, beneficial coastal rains should be a result.

SF

Just courious, have there been any reports of a waterspout today near the Charleston area? Waterspouts are common on the outer eges of tropical systems.

Haven't heard anything yet, but I looked at the CHS WFO website earlier today and saw some pictures from July 1st, and the 18th of waterspouts ... quite impressive ...

[cycloneye]

Finnally the atlantic has a storm to track.Read update at link below and any comments are welcomed.

http://www.storm2k.org/weather/s2kforecast.html

[PTrackerLA]

It's a very busy day today. Had some yard work to do today but it's so hot and there's too much going on lol.

[ColdFront77]

When this system was east of the Bahamas there were waterspouts off the Florida east coast.
In fact there were even reports of funnel clouds across northern Lake county... 35 to 50 miles east of me.

[rbaker]

agree that convection with this system has been south of center last couple days. geostationary vis sat. shows vorcities weakening as they spin towards coast, believe if one of these gets caught under persistant convection over gulf stream,
Alex could be a larger problem.

[Stormchaser16]

Taking a look at vis rbaker....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Can see the vortices as you mentioned weakening, also as the other 2 weaker vortices do that, it is intersting to note they are rotating around what looks to me like a larger more defined prominent LLC that is trying to head towards the convection......

[Lindaloo]

It's a very busy day today. Had some yard work to do today but it's so hot and there's too much going on lol.

Same here. lol. I have tried three times now to vacuum my pool. Still not done.

[rbaker]

last several wv loop doesn't show much progress of front/trough to the east on the southern part esp. Believe these small vortieces, seen are weaking as heading towards coast, and that redevelopment could happen underneath consistant convection further south.

[Stormchaser16]

Rbaker, take a look at the Vis loop, it seems as though the main LLC further north is trying to move south and could either A)redevelop under the convection or B) advance under the northern lobe

[corpusbreeze]

I think the center is very exposed north of the convection. It has a great spin at low levels but has northerly sheer up top. Looks like the center could find it way on shore early tomorrow morning.

[ColdFront77]

the latest model run of the ships takes into account that it is alex... it brings it up to 65kt as it pulls away from Hatteras.. that was just surprising to me... i know it is not likely to happen... but interesting non the less...

Alex was expected to make landfall or just about making landfall according to forecasts from 24 hours ago, so anything is possible beyond the current forecast. That's what gets weather enthusiasts such as ourselves into this science.

[ColdFront77]

Good point Derek, I think we will get a better handle on the future strength of this system later tonight as the ridge clears out and the system can maybe pull together a little bit before becoming absorbed into the front.

What front? As I and others have been saying the frontal system is washing out.

[Stormchaser16]

Yup my mistake, didnt mean the front, meant the trough, and that is not likely to occur until later

[Stormchaser16]

I have also been saying the front is weakening, i made a post that you responded to about it

[corpusbreeze]

Sorry Ill try and be more on top of things next time.