Houston do we have a problem?

[Stormchaser16]

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.html

Interesting to note that it looks like the front is weakening pretty signifigantly...... then we take a look at some upper air maps...

http://weather.unisys.com/upper_air/ua_500.html

500 Mb wind directions indicate SW winds along the eastern seaboard, however very weak speeds until you get into the NE, bring it down to 925 Mb....
Winds in the SE are all over the place, no clear indicator of a predominant SW wind. So..... what is everyone's thoughts about this?

[lilbump3000]

I was looking at water vapor loop and see that this front is weakening pretty quick. To me it looks like this front is going to miss this system. If the front was going to move this system, looking at the water vapor it seems that it should be moving it right now if it was going to.

Also if you look on the water vapor, there is a deeping trough coming behind that front which that what probably move the system eventually.

Only time will tell.

[ColdFront77]

(Again), I mentioned the weakening front in at least a post or two today and in the S2K Chatroom yesterday, late afternoon, last evening and again in the last few hours.

[Stormchaser16]

Yes..... it does appear as though the front is signifigantly weakening, there is a deepening trough behind it though (as pointed out) that will probably pick this system up eventually anyway, albeit a little later then anticipated

[wxman57]

I'm looking at the 12Z upper wind forecasts in GARP. GFS forecasts shear to drop off between 9Z-18Z tomorrow. After that, the southwest winds kick in from the NC/SC border northward. So there's a narrow window of opportunity for strengthening to a TS. Oh, forgot, the NHC already called it a TS.

[Stormchaser16]

LOL... still arguing against it being a TS heh
I definately applaud upgrading this to a TS, even with multiple vortices, if they found a 35Kt surface wind then hey, cant argue with that

[DerekOrtt]

A weaker trough means more of a zonal flow. A stronger trough would mean a more northerly track. If this weakens too much, the system would be steered more to the east by the zonal flow

[Stormchaser16]

Well it is a deepening trough behind a weakening front, so what does that mean lol?

[Guest]

Can't see this thing moving north at all. Skirts the outer banks then off to the race IMO.

[Stormchaser16]

Which would mean a northerly movement?????

[The Dark Knight]

Wait a minute, if there is going to possibley be no front to boot it out to sea, then it could just ridd up the coast... If the trough that is behind the weakining one comes behind it, then since it's pal is weakining then it would weakin too right???

[ColdFront77]

There have been plenty of tropical cyclones that move westward through the eastern Atlantic and/or Caribbean Sea, make a move toward the WNW, NW and even NNW before re-establishing a more westward, (if not more westward movement) because a cold front/trough missing the system.

[Brent]

There have been plenty of tropical cyclones that move westward through the eastern Atlantic and/or Caribbean Sea, make a move toward the WNW, NW and even NNW before re-establishing a more westward, (if not more westward movement) because a cold front/trough missing the system.

THIS IS NOT GOING WESTWARD!

[The Dark Knight]

[quote="Brent:THIS IS NOT GOING WESTWARD![/quote]
Because.....

[TS Zack]

?????