Alex Advisories

[Wnghs2007]

Pressure down to 1006 in latest recon vortex message. with surface winds estimated at 60 mph.

[Rainband]

Thanks Luis. Maybe a cane by tomorrow Isn't the front coming in soon though

[Dave C]

When I last ran a radar loop a nice core of T storms appeared to be wrapping around the south side of a possible LLC, rain bands were also moving from SC coast to the south into the core of T storms I mentioned. The northerly shear must be relaxing somewhat. The vortex message others have recently posted seems to confirm this.

[HURAKAN]

We may have a stronger tropical storm at 11 p.m.

This could indeed be our first hurricane. We will just have to wait and see.

If it stays stationary over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, then anything, but anything can happen.

[WXBUFFJIM]

That ain't surprising if that estimated surface wind was along and just south of the center of circulation. Looking at the long range doppler from Charleston, SC reveals a nice banding structure taking shape. While it's not totally closed yet, the area south of the center maybe the area where winds are up to an estimated 60 mph. There is also talk that this system could become a bit more circular as we get a trough approaching this thing later tonight into Monday. Overall I think the threat maybe a bit more in line with the ships as far as intensity goes as they're going with 60 knots in 36 hours. Definitely not surprised if we see winds at least gust over 60 knots over the offshore and coastal waters and that will need to be wreckened with. Definitely a long night ahead.

Jim

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmm.......

[The Dark Knight]

For once, the ships might be close to reality......

[Rainband]

During the last few hours the center has been drifting or jugging southward, which makes me believe that when the cold front comes to pick up the system it will never make landfall, which is a good news for all of those that live in the Carolinas coasts and don't want to get flooded. I may be wrong but it's looking like Alex will not make landfall.

I agree the front may grab him

[Dave C]

Hey Dark Night I've had enough of these 70+ dew points around here lately. Let's get some fresh CP air in here! LOL

[abajan]

We may have a stronger tropical storm at 11 p.m.

This could indeed be our first hurricane. We will just have to wait and see.

If it stays stationary over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, then anything, but anything can happen.

As I implied earlier in another thread, this is exactly what I feared would happen. We might well have a hurricane by daybreak.

[wayoutfront]

Curious did Alex move?

or did they pick up a new center?

[soonertwister]

Nice to see that the vortex was near where I thought it was. From satellite data and nearby buoy reports, I had guessed 31.2W 79.2W.

Close enough for government work.

And the center has moved smack under the area of deepest convection. Surprise, surprise!

[wxman57]

Looks like just inflow into the mass of storms to the north.

[ncweatherwizard]

Doubtful that NHC will go all the way to 50kts with Alex tonight. T-numbers remain 2.0/2.0, so giving this consideration, we will probably see 40 or maybe 45kts, depending on how much they weigh the recon estimate. Also, we'll have a QuikSCAT swath coming in a couple hours, with its estimate.

Nonetheless, it looks much better than just 12 hours ago.

[ColdFront77]

The southern portion of the front has been washing out, if it hasn't completely done so yet.

[Wnghs2007]

But you dont trust T Numbers like Derecho said once the Recon is in there. And Besides. The SSD has the center a whole 1 longitude north of where the recon has it. So in all honest they could. But I dont expect them to make it 50knts.

[wxman57]

Here's an extended range radar that we're running out of CLX. I zoomed in and indicated motion of rain cells. The center estimate agrees very well with the vortex position. It's still well north of that blob of heavy storms. Still no sign of a center forming down south in the convection, but that could happen tomorrow morning as shear drops off.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex12.gif">

[HURAKAN]

NRL changed the pressure from 1010 mb to 1006 mb but the winds remind the same. Is anyone seeing "Issac's Storm" in the History Channel? Really interesting.

[Lowpressure]

1006 extrap is a bit of a drop in pressure, down from est 1009 at 8 p.m.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It certainly can't be ignored since any drop in shear makes for a more dangerous situation potentially. The northerly shear is the only thing saving us near the coast at this point. Otherwise it would be far worse. There is indications of some drop in shear though as we go through the next 12-24 hours, thus potential of strengthening.

Jim