Alex Advisories

[Lowpressure]

Pressure is starting to drop, but I agree NHC will be slow to raise winds tonight. If he stays more or less stationary, they have time for continuity. If the center can situate itself under the deep convection, which it appears to be trying to do, then we will see 50 plus by morning.

[Brent]

[HurricaneLover]

Here's an extended range radar that we're running out of CLX. I zoomed in and indicated motion of rain cells. The center estimate agrees very well with the vortex position. It's still well north of that blob of heavy storms. Still no sign of a center forming down south in the convection, but that could happen tomorrow morning as shear drops off.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex12.gif">

thanks for pointing out that the center still north of the heaviest of the weather ..a least not a rapid intensification happening right now

[Rieyeuxs]

The southern part of the front is dying and the high is building to the east. Meanwhile Alex just sits. Any guesses aas to what and when will move it? I'm starting to think it's not heading North anytime soon. A little more build up of the high may shove it inland...

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004forecast.html

[WXBUFFJIM]

I would agree with that. The ships show a similar picture with 60 knots at 36 hours. For once they maybe correct on this possibility.

Jim

[Derek Ortt]

It also wouldnt surprise me to see this intensify into a stronger system as it is racing towards Canada, transitioning into an ET cyclone

[Aquawind]

Whew...No Cane..that's what I like to see..

[Aquawind]

It also wouldnt surprise me to see this intensify into a stronger system as it is racing towards Canada, transitioning into an ET cyclone

Certainly wouldn't be the first time..

[WXBUFFJIM]

Yea, just the higher intensity of this tropical cyclone potentially could mean a more powerful extratropical system off the Canadian Maritimes in the next several days. It almost seems like the convection is becoming more and more absorbed within the center of circulation, which is just another reason for the potential of deepening. If we see less shear, we're in trouble along the Carolina coast. Best bet is just stay off the waters along the Carolina coast. There is really no reason to be outside if winds are sustained higher than 50 mph with gusts over 70 mph and horizontal rains. Definitely not a beach day tomorrow for the Carolina coast.

Jim

[CocoaBill]

Is there a prize for being the closest?

On June 29th, I predicted Aug 4th!

Only 3 days off........... not bad!

[cycloneye]

No prize involved only to have some fun.

[Aquawind]

It's a big true color view of the first system of the year in the North Atlantic..


http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... 00.1km.jpg

[CocoaBill]

I was just kidding about the prize I was just fun to see how our predictions went..............

[Stormsfury]

Take note on the IR Channel 4 and WV loops outflow is becoming better established on the northern end of the system pinched between the trough to the north and the s/w ridge building over the system right now...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I saw the recent vortex message and coupled along with the convection continuing to fire and increase ... two things should happen with this general trend for the next 12 to 24 hours. Convection building closer to the center, and/or relocation of a new center closer to the convection.

SF

[Brent]

I concur.

[Aquawind]

Exiting Africa Today..

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/real ... A042141420

[Derek Ortt]

even with the slight pressure rise, the trend still appears for intensifictaion.

I suspect that recon is tracking one of those little vortices that is moving to the west. The overall motion still appears to be stationary

[ncweatherwizard]

Only problem is the initial location here--based on outflow and rotation of convection.

Well worth the read if you've kept up with previous forecasts.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/alex.html

BTW, who erased the last post, or did I by accident. I took care of the accidentally repitition there...sorry about that.

[ncweatherwizard]

As a result of mis-reading QuikSCAT, initial intensity will be 45kts.