July 2004: Spice for a Possible 1969-70 Winter Analog?

[donsutherland1]

The data is now in and from Washington, DC to Boston, temperatures generally averaged below to much below normal and rainfall was above to much above normal.

Monthly Summary

Boston: 71.0° 3.87"
New York City: 74.5° 7.64"
Washington, DC: 78.5° 6.98"

Some Notes:
• Boston saw its 20th coldest July since regular recordkeeping began there in 1872
• New York City saw its 12th westtest July since regular recordkeeping began there in 1869. It also saw its lowest ever monthly maximum temperature (for July): just 87°
• Washington, DC saw its 15th wettest July since recordkeeping began there in 1871.

Analog Implications?
One of the possible analogs that comes up when one assumes the setting in of a weak El Niño for the winter along with a QBO switch from West to East (either in January or February) is Winter 1969-70.

If one takes into consideration all of the above mean temperatures and precipitation, two years stand out as strikingly similar to July 2004:

July 1877
July 1969

July 1877 had a raging El Niño which continued through the winter, so it loses any relevance as a possible analog.

July 1969 saw a weak El Niño that was gradually fading. While this is an imperfection, to be sure, it did maintain that weak El Niño through the winter and had a QBO switch to east.

Moreover, the past two months have been somewhat similar:

Boston: Mean Temperatures
Year................June..........July
1969...............69.3°........71.0°
2004...............66.5°........71.0°


Boston: Precipitation:
Year................June..........July
1969...............0.63"........2.98"
2004...............1.93"........3.87"

New York City: Mean Temperatures
Year................June..........July
1969...............73.1°........74.8°
2004...............71.2°........74.5°


New York City: Precipitation:
Year................June..........July
1969...............3.16"........7.37"
2004...............3.02"........7.64"

Washington, DC: Mean Temperatures
Year................June..........July
1969...............77.1°........79.5°
2004...............73.4°........78.5°


Washington, DC: Precipitation:
Year................June..........July
1969...............3.46"........9.44"
2004...............4.60"........6.98"

All said, the regional data seems to be adding some spice for flavoring with respect to a possible 1969-70 winter analog.

However, it will be the global indices (ENSO, ENSO regions, QBO, SSTAs, etc.) that will determine whether or not 1969-70 will actually be in play as winter approaches. For example, if it becomes increasingly likely that Winter 2004-05 won't see an El Niño set in and/or the QBO switch to east, then the 1969-70 analog would be ruled out.

The regional data can contribute in helping sift through possible analogs. It is not the basis of such analogs.

Finally, for those who are interested, some seasonal snowfall totals from 1969-70:

Albany: 87.7"
Boston: 48.8"
Detroit: 45.1"
New York City: 25.6"
Philadelphia: 20.3"
Pittsburgh: 70.7"
St. Louis: 22.0"
Washington, DC: 14.0"

[USAwx1]

This is why your posts are THE BEST Don!! If I might add, 1969 also had a Christmas Nor'easter that dropped a pretty significant amount of snow on PHL. Don't know the specifics (storm totals, Surface, 850H, 500H charts etc...) If someone could provide them that would be great.

The nice thing about 1969-70 is that the global indices also support the regional analysis.

Also, its not about the strength of the 1877 El Nino that you should be concerned about. Sure B/c of the intensity it's eliminated as a potential analog however it shows a trend in the data--and that is for the slow transition to El Nino conditions over the next 2 to 3 months. It may even take longer than that given the mitigating implications of the PDO negative cycle and the west QBO.

Infact if one looks at the latest SSTA analysis you can already see the developing warm plume from about 120W on out toward the dateline.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 1.2004.gif

Keep that going w/ SSTA of +0.5 or more for the next three months and it will be official. In the next few months the Northeast PAC SSTA will become espeically important. IF they remain Above normal, we could be talking about another -EPO winter.

Recall 1993, and 2002.

[weatherfan]

Something else that is interisting is that the PDO is accually in a tempery weak warm phase.And what interisting about phase winters that averages a postive number in a cool phase trend to faver snower and colder winters.Like wise in a over all warm PDO phase when the winter season happens to averages a negative in a over all Warm postive PDO phase the winter trends to turn out colder and snower anker 95-96 winter.So something else to think about this year.

[USAwx1]

yeah, and as I said, a reason why El Nino conditions won't be coming on for another two or three months most likely. I've been talking about that for months now. See links in Sig.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks USAwx1 for the kind words.

The December 25-28, 1969 nor'easter was quite a storm. It bombed out from 992 mb just south of eastern Long Island to 976 mb along the Massachusetts coastline

Its heaviest snows fell inland and avoided the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast courtesy of warmer air sweeping inland. Parts of central New England experienced a major ice storm. Washington, DC (IAD) did receive a foot.

Snowfall amounts included:

Albany: 26.4"
Baltimore: 6.1"
Binghamton: 21.9"
Boston: 4.2"
Burlington: 29.8"
New York City: 6.8"
Philadelphia: 5.2"

Source:Kocin & Uccellini's, Snowstorms Along The Northeastern Coast of the United States

I completely agree with your comment about the ENSO trend and for the possibility of a negative EPO winter.

[USAwx1]

Thanks USAwx1 for the kind words.

The December 25-28, 1969 nor'easter was quite a storm. It bombed out from 992 mb just south of eastern Long Island to 976 mb along the Massachusetts coastline

Its heaviest snows fell inland and avoided the big cities of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast courtesy of warmer air sweeping inland. Parts of central New England experienced a major ice storm. Washington, DC (IAD) did receive a foot.

Snowfall amounts included:

Albany: 26.4"
Baltimore: 6.1"
Binghamton: 21.9"
Boston: 4.2"
Burlington: 29.8"
New York City: 6.8"
Philadelphia: 5.2"

Source:Kocin & Uccellini's, Snowstorms Along The Northeastern Coast of the United States

I completely agree with your comment about the ENSO trend and for the possibility of a negative EPO winter.

Ah I must have gotten the PHL and DCA totals mixed up...probably the alcohol

anyway, Sounds alot like DEC 02. heh wouldint that be strange? the 3rd year in a row w/ a Blockbuster EC snowstorm in DEC. the analogs would seem to suggest it. that would ESPECIALLY be the case if 1969, and 2002 emerge as dominant. Also may be an early starting winter. We'll see

[donsutherland1]

FWIW, a member (jbcmh81) at another weather message board posted statistics concerning Columbus, OH. There, the July 2004 data grew reasonably similar to that of July 1969:


Mean Temperatures
Year................July
1969...............74.1°
2004...............73.7°


Precipitation:
Year................July
1969...............7.65"
2004...............6.46"

[donsutherland1]

The December 2002 nor'easter was a remarkable storm. It was one of two consecutive storms that dumped 20" of snow on Albany over a 10-day stretch.

Some photos: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo ... 2002d.html

Even NYC experienced a period of heavy snow as it moved by after having received heavy rain.

We'll see how 2004 evolves.

[USAwx1]

FWIW, a member (jbcmh81) at another weather message board posted statistics concerning Columbus, OH. There, the July 2004 data grew reasonably similar to that of July 1969:


Mean Temperatures
Year................July
1969...............74.1°
2004...............73.7°


Precipitation:
Year................July
1969...............7.65"
2004...............6.46"

that's also interesting. But the global indices have the final say.

[USAwx1]

The December 2002 nor'easter was a remarkable storm. It was one of two consecutive storms that dumped 20" of snow on Albany over a 10-day stretch.

Some photos: http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photo ... 2002d.html

Even NYC experienced a period of heavy snow as it moved by after having received heavy rain.

We'll see how 2004 evolves.

If I'm not mistaken, NYC began as snow on Xmas eve, transitioned over to A mix and then went over to all rain as the SE wind kicked in. Then as the low deepened explosively precip went back over to snow (as the warm wedge was pinched off). Typical of similar Miller type B systems. But the transfer of the 850mb low is most critical in these situations. In addition to the track of the s/w (or 500mb low).

BUT, The SLP got down to about 974mb while near the benchmark, which is as good as it gets IMO.







My place Up in the catskills recieved a prolonged period of 2-4"/hr snowfall rates underneath CSI bands as the strongest lift moved over the region. Total came to about 30" in the Delhi area.





At 20 UTC there was one VERY intense band Running from Northern Lackawanna county PA, into hamilton county NY--right over western otsego and western Delaware counties.

Not only did the strong banding contibuate to the higher totals, but if you take a second to look at the terrain, that factor palyed a key role also.

When it comes to the JAN 2-4 Nor'easter, I only got around 18" from that, however to the SE of me there were actually totals of less than 12".

BTW, nice site.

[USAwx1]

Otherwise, I like 1969-70 b/c 1969 came up as a tropical analog.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=34911

So did 1963.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks for the charts and the radar. Yes, I just read your updated tropical outlook.

Great job!

[USAwx1]

Thanks, Don. Here is a link to additional images:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/bgm/casestudy/2 ... 502_files/

[donsutherland1]

Thanks very much for the URL, USAwx1.

[USAwx1]

The tropical analogs would seem to suggest that the trough in the means is in the east w/ signs of persistent high latitude blocking. DEC was colder than normal in the NE, JAN was similarly cold, however the positive height anomaly associated with the –NAO was displaced a bit further south. The month was colder than average everywhere—including the SW. FEB saw the retrogression of the mean trough position back to the Central US/Rockies, w/ above normal heights over the EUS and less in the way of blocking. This would seem to suggest a return to winter in the GL/Midwest, and also an inland storm track. Perhaps up into the lakes.

If we drop the seasons which did not have similar QBO conditions the following winter we find that the trough was in the EUS in the means w/ pronounced blocking over the NATL (positive anomaly centered over SERN Greenland and Iceland—that extended westward toward Hudson bay). Moral of the story, it varied little from the analog mean w/o the years with dissimilar QBO conditions eliminated.

Of course this all bends on the idea that the Tropical season will behave the way the analogs are suggesting it will based on JUN/JUL activity. If not, well this is about as useful as a JX post.

[Stormsfury]

Otherwise, I like 1969-70 b/c 1969 came up as a tropical analog.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=34911

So did 1963.

One fly in the ointment was the moderate El Niño ongoing that year, and still it didn't hinder the 1969 tropical Atlantic Season ... 18 storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors (including Camille).

SF

[USAwx1]

Otherwise, I like 1969-70 b/c 1969 came up as a tropical analog.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=34911

So did 1963.

One fly in the ointment was the moderate El Niño ongoing that year, and still it didn't hinder the 1969 tropical Atlantic Season ... 18 storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 majors (including Camille).

SF

the Wonders of the Long term ocean cycles is what it amounts to.

The ATL SSTA configuration in 1969 looks similar to the present w/ the small weak cold pool in the central ATL, and warm water over the sub-tropical regions, Far NATL, in the Carib, GOM, and along the EC. That provided plenty of latent heat for tropical systems.