Alex Advisories

[Stormchaser16]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Yup the center did move south underneath the convection, and now convection is firing around it..... Still most of the convection and stronger winds are off to the south of the convection, however now further development can and likely will occur as the center is no longer exposed. I think this system has about 12-24 hrs to show us what it can really pull off.

Of an interesting note, the front has basically hit Alex(or where it SHOULD start to turn it or move it) and we still see a stationary system. NOW, it is possible that it has become TOO stationary, allowing for further development, but probably a track further offshore or just brushing the shore now. If it starts to move north soon then i would expect a landfall.......

[Hurricanehink]

Sweet. It looks like a donut! Mmm, donuts...

[Stormchaser16]

11PM keeps it at 40MPH but lowers pressure to 1007MB

[lilbump3000]

...ALEX REMAINS STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 79.2 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART


$$

[Three Blind Mice]

Fish storm..

[lilbump3000]

I find it hard to believe that winds are still 40 MPH.

[corpusbreeze]

It sure does look that the CDOC has moved over the LLC. It is over warm gulf stream waters, Im betting on a strong TS, maybe borderline cane. Looking forward to the NHC 10 pm update. Yall enjoy North and South Carolinas, and be carefull.

[Stormchaser16]

3 blind mice- with all due respect i would seriously reconsider that statement...... the storm is too large now to not at least affect areas of the SE as it comes close-if not making landfall. Also- the OBX will feel the effects bigtime as Alex starts to slowly move NEwrd towards that area.

The statement that this is a fish storm, is seriously a pretty non well thought it one

[Stormchaser16]

Lilbump- I believe winds may be a bit higher then 40 MPH at this point, i seriously would have thought they would have upgraded it at the 11PM advisory but i guess not...... it could be because the pressures arent falling that rapidly

[dixiebreeze]

at 11 p.m.:

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 6


Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 01, 2004


...Alex remains stationary off the South Carolina coast...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina...including the
Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for north of Cape Hatteras
to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A tropical storm watch also
remains in effect from Edisto Beach to South Santee River South
Carolina.

At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 31.5 north...longitude 79.2 west or about
90 miles south-southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex remains nearly stationary. However...a slow drift toward the
north or north-northeast is expected by Monday afternoon. On the
forecast track...the center of Alex will be slowly approaching the
south and North Carolina coasts during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 60 miles southeast
through southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 2 inches...with isolated higher
amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...31.5 N... 79.2 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained
winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart

[wx247]

I would have suspected that the winds would have at least been 50 mph. Hmmm...

[soonertwister]

I wonder what it feels like to be one of the people on one of those recon flights when they find the vortex and report 50 knot surface winds, and then NHC comes out with a storm update and says the winds are at 35 knots.

They took the vortex fix as accurate, though. Go figure.

[Stormchaser16]

I personally think its CRAP that they didnt at LEAST give this 45 MPH winds.... if they found 50KT surface winds, why in the HECK did they not reflect it in the advisory?

[lilbump3000]

Well 10 update is the same as the 5. The only change is pressure.

[vacanechaser]

I personally think its CRAP that they didnt at LEAST give this 45 MPH winds.... if they found 50KT surface winds, why in the HECK did they not reflect it in the advisory?

THEY "DIDNT FIND" 50KTS... IT WAS AN OBSEVATION VISUALLY... NOT ACCURATE... FLIGHT LEVEL WAS STILL 45KNT.. AND THE SURFACE WIND IS ABOUT 80% OF THAT AT THE SURFACE...

[MGC]

Alex is lucky to have TS force winds let alone 50mph.....MGC

[corpusbreeze]

Yea Im a little disappointed, But Alex is winding up as I type.

[Stormchaser16]

Whats with all caps?

I still would have given it at least 45MPH winds in the 11PM advisory just based on the way the system has signifigantly organized. They should have reflected at least a part of what the recon. seemed to have found

[Stormchaser16]

Very Ill thought out statement MGC........

I couldnt disagree any less with you about that statement, there is NOTHING to indicate that Alex is anything less then a 40MPH TS.

[wxman57]

It's not stated where that 50kt sfc estimate came from, or whether it was a true, measured 1 minute wind as required. NHC stated that max FL winds were 45kts. Since the plane is up around 1000-1500 ft, the conversion is about .8 x 45 = 36 kts for sfc winds. With a pressure of only 1007 mb and a detached center, it wouldn't even qualify for TS strength in the Pacific, and likely not even TD status.