WHAT IF NEITHER DEVELOP?

[USAwx1]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

This is really P!ssing me off. I just wrote three articles telling you what the analogs suggest. Learn how to read or just SHUT UP!

[Tip]

Unfortunately, she has already got her desired result.

[Brent]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

The trough has nothing to do with how active a season will be. It only affects the MOVEMENT of storms. You know that.

Please stop trolling.

[Derecho]

ROFL...

Helen has been doing this for years...and it still works

Thing is people misunderstand what a troll is; the original meaning (derived from the practice of trolling while "fishing".....dragging a lure behind a boat looking for a bite) has gotten twisted so that a troll is merely (incorrectly) perceived as an obnoxious/profane poster; however, one can be a quite subtle "troll."

She knows it pushes people's buttons to suggest a slow season...and does it fairly subtly and without fanfare...but she's done it every year for at least the last 4-5 years, I think, on various weather boards.

[Lindaloo]

I agree, stop trolling rainstorm.

[Lindaloo]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

This is really P!ssing me off. I just wrote three articles telling you what the analogs suggest. Learn how to read or just SHUT UP!

Don't worry with it USA. Last season it was "all that dry air"

[Guest]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

Oh-no!! Not another Andrew!!!! LOL I agree about the trough being dangerous especially with the stronger than normal bermuda high keeping the storms from recurving until near the US, Then they reach the trough which would be there just in time to pick up a cane and slam it into the East coast or even run the entire coast Trough could be bad news as we approach the peak an it could be a destructive season indeed.

Yes also there is a body of water called the Caribbean Sea,I'm not sure that rainstorm has heard of this but it is a place where many powerful storms have formed or tracked in to once upon a time.Its not out the realm of possibility that one or 2 may wind up in there later on & if this dreaded trof is there it can pick the big bad storm up & move it north into the Fla panhandle or peninsula or maybe even Alabama or MS.Or a storm can also still approach from the east & the trof may lift for 3 or 4 days & give the storm an opportunity to make progress wwrd & affect some area along the EC.All these circumstances are yet to be known because 1.there are no storms to track at this time, 2 there are still 4 months remaining in the 2004 hurricane season & that includes the peak of the season in which many scenarios can or cannot happen which will be the ultimate factor that will determine where will the storms be developing & going to.None of these details can be fully explained at this time for the reasons mentioned above.So why dont you enjoy whats to come & let the pieces fall where they may & stop being so negative.Will Virginia Beach see a hurricane this year??? Probably not, you got some good effects last year & Virginia Beach is not exactly a hurricane mecca.Might some one else get hit???We will see, like I said there are other bodies of water that can produce hurricanes & trof or no trof someone can get hit.

I mean common rainstorm you know lots about the tropics but you do the same thing every season.You did it last year right up until Isabel knocked your power out for 2 weeks.One would think you would have learned something after that!Then you say this could be like 1992.Do you remember what happened in 92???

[OtherHD]

Don't worry with it USA. Last season it was "all that dry air"

Don't forget azores high andre..

[Typhoon_Willie]

that she totally busted last year... But then as another poster has already mentioned she likes to subtly push people buttons...Like she had nothing else better to do!

[USAwx1]

that she totally busted last year... But then as another poster has already mentioned she likes to subtly push people buttons...Like she had nothing else better to do!

it would be fine if she backed up her information with proven research. This is science, I like facts not guesses or gut feelings or what other people from other boards think. I have given you and the board everything i can WRT finding seasons similar to this and YOU KNOW the result.

[george_r_1961]

Helen if the storms come they come and if they dont they dont. If they do come and I think they will, there is a good team of forecasters here waiting. So stop with the "what ifs" and lets take this season as it comes.

[USAwx1]

Helen if the storms come they come and if they dont they dont. If they do come and I think they will, there is a good team of forecasters here waiting. So stop with the "what ifs" and lets take this season as it comes.

Yes exactly, THE STORMS WILL COME (AND ONE IS ALREADY HERE -- TD 1)!!!! EVERYONE JUST NEEDS TO KEEP THEIR COOL. Thank you.

[Aquawind]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

This is really P!ssing me off. I just wrote three articles telling you what the analogs suggest. Learn how to read or just SHUT UP!

Ugh..Relax USAwx1..seems this thread has nothing to do with weather and the facts...

[Anonymous]

i read that the trough is coming back big time in august, and the season may be a repeat of 1992 numbers wise

This is really P!ssing me off. I just wrote three articles telling you what the analogs suggest. Learn how to read or just SHUT UP!

Ugh..Relax USAwx1..seems this thread has nothing to do with weather and the facts...

This person tries to be pessimistic about tropical storm formation as she was last year-----she knows it, we know it-I think she is using reverse psychology and secretly hoping the season is an extreme season with landfalls in her area!-I have in my own little way, tried the same thing...It dont work for me but did for her last year with Isabel for her and I wish I knew her secret!--But she needs to read as to not offend others!!!!-USAwx1 was just setting her str8

[donsutherland1]

With TD #1 having intensified into Tropical Storm Alex, the question that defined this subject heading has become irrelevant. Now, the question is: "With one having developed, is this a sign of an active hurricane season?"

The arguments of many that this would be an active hurricane season based on the global indices have been bolstered:

Taken from an examination of past years in which the first storm developed between July 1-31 (date of the TD and not necessarily its having attainted TS or Hurricane status):

10/13 (77%) of seasons had 10 or more named storms; 2/13 (15%) had 8 or fewer named storms
…Average: 11.5 named storms; 7.3 hurricanes; 2.8 major hurricanes
…Most: 17 named storms; 12 hurricanes; 7 major hurricanes
…Least: 7 named storms; 4 hurricanes; 1 major hurricane

In short, Alex is the first hint that the 2004 hurricane season is showing promise of shaping up as advertised.

[Stormsfury]

With TD #1 having intensified into Tropical Storm Alex, the question that defined this subject heading has become irrelevant. Now, the question is: "With one having developed, is this a sign of an active hurricane season?"

The arguments of many that this would be an active hurricane season based on the global indices have been bolstered:

Taken from an examination of past years in which the first storm developed between July 1-31 (date of the TD and not necessarily its having attainted TS or Hurricane status):

10/13 (77%) of seasons had 10 or more named storms; 2/13 (15%) had 8 or fewer named storms
…Average: 11.5 named storms; 7.3 hurricanes; 2.8 major hurricanes
…Most: 17 named storms; 12 hurricanes; 7 major hurricanes
…Least: 7 named storms; 4 hurricanes; 1 major hurricane

In short, Alex is the first hint that the 2004 hurricane season is showing promise of shaping up as advertised.

And we only have to look east for an area of interest that just came off of Africa about 12 to 24 hours ago for possible development ...

SF

[donsutherland1]

Very true, SF.