Alex Advisories

[Wnghs2007]

479
WTNT31 KNHC 020602
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

...ALEX REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

AT 2 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE NEAR
LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST OR ABOUT 110 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 2 AM EDT POSITION...31.4 N... 79.4 W. MOVEMENT
...NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

____________________________________________________________

LOL. It moved 20 miles to the South South East.

[USAwx1]

hey KC and everyone else for that matter, why not keep ONE THREAD for all the New TPC advisories instead of creating a new thread for each new discussion. Thanks. the same can go for vortex messages/recon Obs.

makes it easier that way.

[dixiebreeze]

The steady drop in pressure is very significant. I expect this to become Hurricane Alex.

[dixiebreeze]

All indications are that Alex is strengthening a bit more rapidly since midnight. Also a bit farther west now.

02/0545 UTC 32.0N 79.6W T3.0/3.0 ALEX -- Atlantic Ocean

[Anonymous]

It looked as if it was drifting a little to the west, I am sure not enough to change anything.

[dixiebreeze]

79.6 W is the proof it has moved to the west. Possibly an adjustment....

[TS Zack]

Alex has tripled its size from earlier this afternoon.

[Anonymous]

Yes. The center is now wrapping around on Georgia radar.

[TS Zack]

I feel sorry for any lost fisherman off the Jacksonville Coast. Better get the buckets! The rain out their is tremendous.

[weatherlover427]

I knew it by looking at the MLB radar. Only time will tell if this is permanent or temporary...and if FL needs to really start watching the storm...

[dixiebreeze]

Note the TWO dark deep convection areas:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[Anonymous]

you think maybe it is trying to consolidate?

[TS Zack]

The outflow to the Southwest side is very nice. Alex is getting a more circular shape and outflow is starting to be impressive.
If anyone sees old Mr. Trough tell him he left his cyclone somewhere near Florida!!!!!!

[Renata]

Note the TWO dark deep convection areas:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Dixie, had trouble sleeping last nite?

[soonertwister]

Note the TWO dark deep convection areas:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

The two large lobes of convection are now merging together, and from water vapor imagery the outflow is looking good to excellent around the compass. With T-numbers making a six-hour jump from 2.0/2.0 to 3.0/3.0 and the convection starting to wrap the center, the stage is being set for what could become a very interesting weather day for Alex.

Too bad I'll be working my butt off today...

[Anonymous]

*Bump*

[Three Blind Mice]

Looking at this mornings IR images it appears in the last few frames of a loop to jog NE, pulling away from the coast. If so, as I said last night this is a fish storm. Its probably to early to call. Any thoughts??

[Nimbus]

Part of that is the convection finally building over the center. Now that Alex has better symmetry the models should be able to properly initialize.

[Dave C]

I was looking at a loop of JX radar and very slow NNE drift appeared to be starting. Pressure needs to come down more for further intensifacation though, still about 1005 mb, which would be right for a low-end TS. Does appear to be wrapping around the north side but still very little overall convection on northern semi-circle.....for now

[cycloneye]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

...ALEX STRENGTHENS...

RADAR IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
HOWEVER...A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ALEX
WILL BE SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED
A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N... 79.0 W. MOVEMENT
...DRIFTING EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN