Bonnie Advisories

[cycloneye]

Agree with all those points Hyperstorm.

[Hyperstorm]

Be prepared Cycloneye and others in Puerto Rico for a VERY ROUGH 24-36 hours, starting probably late Wednesday and into Thursday. This will be especially true if it develops as it will bring the brunt of the system much closer to the island as opposed to if it stays as a tropical wave. At least it is not expected to slow down to less than 10-15 mph, so it should be quickly heading out of the area by late Thursday.

[rainstorm]

it will intensify, and brush the ne carib islands as it recurves ahead of a huge trough.

[cycloneye]

Be prepared Cycloneye and others in Puerto Rico for a VERY ROUGH 24-36 hours, starting probably late Wednesday and into Thursday. This will be especially true if it develops as it will bring the brunt of the system much closer to the island as opposed to if it stays as a tropical wave. At least it is not expected to slow down to less than 10-15 mph, so it should be quickly heading out of the area by late Thursday.

Yes here all the managment people are watching the progress of it and if watches or warnings go up we will be ready.IT is not so much the wind that causes tragic events here in Puerto Rico but the flooding so whatever this system becomes rain will be the main threat.

[TerryAlly]

Shower activity is not as concentrated as it was last evening however, convention is appearing to the north of the center and the south with winds on both sides 25-30 knots.

Convection also south of the center but this is part of the ITCZ.

Let's see at 8:05 am what the forward speed is.

[cycloneye]

From the 8:05 discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE MIDWAY ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N WITH
A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10.5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WITH THE
RELAXED VERTICAL SHEAR THE CONVECTION IS NOW TO ALL SIDES OF THE
LOW. THE LOW STILL APPEARS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

Wow now it has slowed down to 10-15 kts that is very important for it to consolidate more.

[cycloneye]

This is the latest GFDL run and puts the system almost at the doorsteps of Puerto Rico.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 43.5 280./17.1
6 11.3 44.6 295./12.4
12 11.5 45.1 291./ 5.6
18 12.4 46.2 310./14.2
24 13.1 47.8 292./17.1
30 13.6 49.3 290./15.3
36 14.2 51.2 288./18.8
42 14.9 53.2 288./20.9
48 15.0 55.1 275./18.6
54 15.7 56.9 292./18.4
60 16.1 58.8 281./18.3
66 16.3 60.7 276./18.2
72 16.5 62.3 278./16.3

[Hyperstorm]

Well, as soon as I posted about all those factors above, it looks like the system is really consolidating now. I just looked at the very latest IR/WV images out of 20 minutes ago and the system appears to be developing major convection near 12.5N 45W. It looks like this forcing indicates a tigher LLC developing near those coordinates. So, be prepared Cycloneye, this system is poised to become something sooner rather than later and it appears now to be starting its trek WNW.

[cycloneye]

Model run at 6:00 UTC:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20040802 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040802 0600 040802 1800 040803 0600 040803 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 43.3W 11.5N 47.1W 12.2N 50.7W 12.8N 53.9W
BAMM 10.8N 43.3W 11.6N 47.1W 12.4N 50.7W 13.2N 54.1W
A98E 10.8N 43.3W 11.4N 46.6W 11.8N 50.0W 12.2N 53.2W
LBAR 10.8N 43.3W 11.5N 46.8W 12.3N 50.4W 13.0N 53.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040804 0600 040805 0600 040806 0600 040807 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 57.0W 14.4N 62.4W 16.0N 66.6W 18.4N 69.6W
BAMM 13.5N 57.2W 14.3N 63.3W 15.8N 68.0W 17.6N 71.9W
A98E 12.4N 56.1W 13.6N 60.8W 14.6N 64.9W 16.4N 69.0W
LBAR 13.2N 57.3W 13.9N 63.4W 14.8N 67.6W .0N .0W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 43.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.1N LONM12 = 40.0W DIRM12 = 278DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


As you can see I am posting all about 91L in one thread and that is because we dont want repetitive threads about the same system.

[PTrackerLA]

It definately looks like a player, be vigilant all those in the islands .

[TerryAlly]

From the 8:05 discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE MIDWAY ACROSS THE ATLC ALONG 42W/43W S OF 15N WITH
A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 10.5N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...BUT WITH THE
RELAXED VERTICAL SHEAR THE CONVECTION IS NOW TO ALL SIDES OF THE
LOW. THE LOW STILL APPEARS TRAPPED WITHIN THE ITCZ...BUT
SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 8N-15N
BETWEEN 42W-49W.

Wow now it has slowed down to 10-15 kts that is very important for it to consolidate more.

That's "good" news Luis.

Let's look at the environment ... wind shear has relaxed over the system and in the forward environment for the forseeable future; convection is developing north and south and with pockets on the east and west; it is coming into slightly warmer waters (84F); it is in the area where the Coriolis Force takes over. SAL is way ahead of it. Pressure has dropped a tad. What's needed in the next 24 hours is for the development of the thunderstorm.

[TerryAlly]

The convection certainly has "broken up". It is not as concentrated as it was yesterday but it is coming back.

The "system" however, is organising.

[The Dark Knight]

ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP IT ALIVE....

[Derecho]

ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP IT ALIVE....

Not true. On many models it's barely initiated in the first place, so nothing to "keep alive" on them.

[HURAKAN]

The system looks much better organized than it did last night.

[Steve H.]

91L is much better organized today, no question. Forget the SAL. This is going to become a headache down the road, and I believe it is at depression status now, but they may upgrade it to bonnie before giving it a TD status.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20040802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040802 1200 040803 0000 040803 1200 040804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.4W 12.8N 51.6W 13.5N 54.6W
BAMM 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.5W 12.9N 51.9W 13.6N 55.0W
A98E 11.2N 45.1W 12.1N 48.4W 12.8N 51.7W 13.4N 54.8W
LBAR 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.6W 12.9N 52.2W 13.3N 55.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040804 1200 040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 57.2W 15.7N 61.5W 17.3N 64.0W 19.1N 65.7W
BAMM 14.2N 58.0W 15.5N 63.1W 17.1N 66.8W 18.7N 69.8W
A98E 13.9N 57.5W 15.5N 61.9W 16.9N 65.4W 19.3N 68.2W
LBAR 13.5N 59.3W 14.3N 65.2W 16.6N 69.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 68KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 41.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Let's take this model run with caution because until a more defined center is establised these plots may not mean too much but if it becomes a TD or a storm then the plots wil be more valid so let's see what happens.

[HurricaneLover]

Its amazing that San Juan WFO is not saying much about it on the 5 am discussion.

[yoda]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20040802 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040802 1200 040803 0000 040803 1200 040804 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.4W 12.8N 51.6W 13.5N 54.6W
BAMM 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.5W 12.9N 51.9W 13.6N 55.0W
A98E 11.2N 45.1W 12.1N 48.4W 12.8N 51.7W 13.4N 54.8W
LBAR 11.2N 45.1W 12.0N 48.6W 12.9N 52.2W 13.3N 55.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040804 1200 040805 1200 040806 1200 040807 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.2N 57.2W 15.7N 61.5W 17.3N 64.0W 19.1N 65.7W
BAMM 14.2N 58.0W 15.5N 63.1W 17.1N 66.8W 18.7N 69.8W
A98E 13.9N 57.5W 15.5N 61.9W 16.9N 65.4W 19.3N 68.2W
LBAR 13.5N 59.3W 14.3N 65.2W 16.6N 69.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 68KTS
DSHP 49KTS 57KTS 62KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.2N LONCUR = 45.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 10.5N LONM12 = 41.6W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 = 17KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 37.9W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Let's take this model run with caution because until a more defined center is establised these plots may not mean too much but if it becomes a TD or a storm then the plots wil be more valid so let's see what happens.

Interesting Model runs. I find it fascinating that through 36 hours, all of the models (the ones there) have it within 1 degree either way.
Also, interesting to notice the difference between the SHIPS and DSHP at 120 hours.. after they had been the same for 96. hmm 70 kts translates to a Cat 1 hurricane... approaching minimal Cat 2 (95 mph, right? That's the threshold?) This will be interesting to say the least.

IMO, we will see TD#2 today or tomorrow, and maybe Bonnie by tomorrow or Wednesday.

[TerryAlly]

Interesting Model runs. I find it fascinating that through 36 hours, all of the models (the ones there) have it within 1 degree either way.

That has been one consistency since these runs started and I too noticed it.

The other interesting thing is that the models are now initiated with a WNW direction which will cause it to bypass the southern islands which I thought would have happened.

Looking at the loops there seems to be a WNW movement but these things do behave strangely sometimes and we do have to wait.