Alex Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

Finally.... Almost a hurricane...

[soonertwister]

Pressure down 12 mb from 1004 to 992 in three hours. If it drops another 18 mb in the next three hours then we are officially in an explosive deepening phase. Right now it's between rapid and explosive, but the pressure drop could accelerate as Alex gets more organized.

Really not good news at all...

[cycloneye]

Here is ther forecast advisory from 1200z that almost has a hurricane 60kts:

000
WTNT21 KNHC 021205
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012004
1200Z MON AUG 02 2004

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS
TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.0W AT 02/1200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS DRIFTING EAST

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.0W AT 02/1200Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 32.2N 78.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 33.4N 77.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 35.3N 74.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 37.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 43.0N 59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 49.0N 44.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Lowpressure]

Agreed, he is deepening pretty good right now. It was always a case of the LLC getting underneath the convection. Probably will be a Hurricane, but don't think we will see any more real threat to the SE coastline. NC shore has a shot at getting a glancing blow. Hope I am correct, if not, some people are going to be real surprised when they come home from work.

[Stormchaser16]

Nope he waited a little too long, should not really affect anyone with more then a glancing pass

[CocoaBill]

I would also be interested in hearing the answer to these questions. However, the current events are taking their toll on autopsy time.........

[WXBUFFJIM]

Tropical storm Alex has strengthened dangerously over the past few hours and could become the first hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season later on today. Reports from the hurricane hunter aircraft suggest maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph with higher gusts. This is supported by a much lower minimum central pressure of 992 mb.

At 8 AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Alex was located near latitude 31.3 north, longitude 79.0 west or about 120 miles south southeast of Charleston, SC. Alex has been drifting eastward over the past few hours. A slow motion towards the north and or northeast is anticipated over the next 24 hours. On this track, the center of Alex will likely make it close to the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina later today, thus heavy rain squalls near the coast later today through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are now up to near 60 mph with higher gusts. Expect additional strengthening over the next 24 hours and Alex could potentially become the first hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Minimum central pressure is now 992 mb or 29.29 inches as reported by the Hurricane Hunters. This is n 18 mb drop in central pressure since 5 PM EDT last night. Definitely some significant strengthening and the potential is for more strengthening. The watches and warnings remain the same this morning with Tropical Storm Watches in effect from South Santee River to Edisto Beach and from Cape Hatteras to Oregon Inlet. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect from Cape Hatteras southward to South Santee River. This could change and potentially even be upgraded if this system strengthens more than forecasted and strikes near the coast. Indications show this being more of a coastal issue as opposed to an inland threat at this time, which means dangerous rip currents, strong winds, and heavy rain squalls along the Carolina coast.
Winds could potentially reach hurricane force tonight for the North Carolina Outer Banks and especially over the offshore waters as Alex has a better chance of striking just offshore from North Carolina through Tuesday.

Jim

[Dave C]

Nice outflow expanding out n and e now as well as south. Seems like one of those "bursting" phases is going on now. Reminds me of how Floyd exploded as it moved out of shear as it approached the Bahamas. Not comparing this to Floyd LOL

[WXBUFFJIM]

Each system has some different character and attitude towards it. But I wouldn't be surprised during this bursting phase that this system becomes the first hurricane of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane Season. With less vertical shear combined with very warm Gulf Stream waters makes for a very dangerous mixture for this system as it continues to develop over a particularly dangerous areaof the western Atlantic, the gulf stream.

The best news is if this center remains of the Carolina coast. But it will be very close tonight into Tuesday

Jim

[Trader Ron]

Most of it's effects will stay offshore.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's certainly a nice warm up to what could be a more active hurricane season as we continue through this year. As long as the projected path holds or even goes further offshore than progged and the Carolina coast could see little any anything except a few feter ban rain squalls and dangerous rip currents. Best bet is to stay off the water today through Tuesday as waves are higher than they were yesterday. Only minor impact is likely with respect to beach erosion and rain squalls. But certainly Alex looks more impressive this morning than it's ever been in it's life. After today, I suspect southwesterly shear will do it's thing and kill the intensification process of this system. This also means an offshore entity the way it looks now.

Jim

[Wnghs2007]

WOW. After looking at the three long range radars that catch this storms circulation center. I can say that there appearsed to be a partially closed Eye forming. I dont know if this is something else but It sure looks like an eye.

[Brent]

[Tommedic]

Appears that a NE move may be present. Question is this just a bump or a beginning.

[SacrydDreamz]

deeper convection wrapping around the core which is warming.

[hurricanemike]

TPNT KGWC 021241
A. TROPICAL STORM ALEX (ONE)
B. 02/1131Z (50)
C. 31.6N/0
D. 79.3E/9
E. FIVE/GOES12
F. T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HR -02/1131Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .70 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT OF 3.0
FT BASED ON DT. PT AGREES. MET GIVES 2.5.

ALEXANDER/PIATT

[SacrydDreamz]

But it looks like it's moving more east-northeast right now.

[SacrydDreamz]

May become a hurricane within 12 hours.

[yoda]

Hmmm... HURICANE ALEX by 5PM?

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004forecast.html

graphics at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004graphics.html