Alex Advisories

Thunder44 · #461 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:07 am

Look at latest loops again. It may really not be moving at all. Just eye or center organizing.

#462 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:08 am

Renata,
I will be visiting your lovely island again in October.

yoda · #463 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:08 am

SW portion looks a bit ragged there, otherwise that is strengthing... look for 65-70 mph winds in the 11 Am update.. or in 30 mins or so! :eek:

#464 Postby **Trader Ron** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:10 am

It's amazing how many times a Trough comes down and kicks these Storms out to sea.

Hyperstorm · #465 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:10 am

See that image right there? That's a hurricane in the making. Sooner rather than later we'll see this become one...likely during one of the afternoon updates (2-5pm).

yoda · #466 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:11 am

My local AFD says that the trough/front is moving BACK NW... :roll:

Derek Ortt · #467 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:12 am

No

May actually mean a more easterly flow as you'll not get the sharpest portion of the system, you'll have more of a zonal flow instead of an amplified one. You needed the trough to get more to the south to suck this thing to the north

Website · #468 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:12 am

Nice. Looks like a hurricane in the making. :eek:

TS Zack · #469 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:14 am

Once the conevection wraps around the center we could see rapid intensification into a Hurricane.

yoda · #470 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:15 am

so you are saying we need the rough to move south into the carolinas? In order for this to come north?

Derek Ortt · #471 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:18 am

yeah, and you need the trough to get quite a bit stronger so that it becomes ore tilted

Derek Ortt · #472 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:33 am

as an fyi to everyone,

the latest storm update is at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl012004.html

also, I wont be awake for late this afternoon, so I wont be able to post ehre when the nwhhc updates are released, so just keep checking back on the site

yoda · #473 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:36 am

ok good post. Will the TS watches move further north any?

Derek Ortt · #474 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:41 am

??? I dont get <b>that</b> info early

yoda · #475 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:42 am

LOL.. sorry Derek.. just checking what your thoughts were! :lol:

yoda · #476 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:42 am

Info will be out shortly....

Website · #477 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:44 am

Waiting and refreshing Weather Underground. :lol:

yoda · #478 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:44 am

same here along with NHC! :lol:

TS Zack · #479 Postby **TS Zack** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:44 am

The longer Alex sits down their the more the chance of him moving strait NE.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #480 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:45 am

Slight pressure increase...

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004

at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
northward to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning
is now in effect from South Santee River South Carolina to Oregon
Inlet North Carolina.

At 11 am EDT...the tropical storm watch from Edisto Beach to South
Santee River has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 31.5 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 120
miles...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph. A turn to the
northeast is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Alex has the potential to become a hurricane over the
next day or so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.5 N... 78.7 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Alex Advisories

11 AM info on Alex... (put in here)

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