An eye has popped...Hurricane shortly

SacrydDreamz · #2 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:32 am

That is not an eye... nor will it be the eye.

yoda · #3 Postby **yoda** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:32 am

hurricane watches to be posted at 11 AM..

Winds 70 mph...

ALL IMO!

Hyperstorm · #4 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:35 am

SacrydDreamz wrote:That is not an eye... nor will it be the eye.

Sorry to dissapoint you, but those are the beginnings of an eye, at least on visible. All criteria is met, hole visible where the center is located and deep convection on top of it. It is not exposed, nor it's just a cloudless hole, it's an eye-like feature (as the NHC would call it). Might not quite be a hurricane at 11am, but surely this afternoon. Pressure should begin to fall now that the feature has popped...Winds will follow shortly.

#5 Postby **Dave C** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:38 am

You can also see a hole in the radar presentation. Seems to line-up with sat. picture you posted

Website · #6 Postby **Brent** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:40 am

It's the beginnings of an eye. It's exactly where the center is. I don't think it'll be up to a cane at 11am either(they didn't immediately upgrade with Claudette) but it should follow this afternoon. :eek:

SacrydDreamz · #7 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:46 am

We must be looking at a different 'hole' because the one I was looking at certianly was not an eye...... and the center on radar appears to line up with convection.... the tops are warming around the center but there is no 'hole' on the visible satelitte.

SacrydDreamz · #8 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:48 am

Where's the eye?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/archdat/trop ... N-790W.jpg

Hyperstorm · #9 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:49 am

The feature will likely be covered this afternoon by a burst of convection currently going on south of the center. It is quite common for these eye-like features to be covered by higher cloud tops while it gets better organized and the downward force becomes stronger in the center. For sure this indicates an eyewall already with the system.

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:49 am

SacrydDreamz wrote:That is not an eye... nor will it be the eye.

Wrong...it is the beginning of an eye.

caneman · #11 Postby **caneman** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:50 am

Air Force Met wrote:
SacrydDreamz wrote:That is not an eye... nor will it be the eye.

Wrong...it is the beginning of an eye.

I concur

#12 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:52 am

I see it!

This is amazing!

Anonymous · #13 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:53 am

Bob Stokes just agreed that it looked like an Eye was forming :eek:

Hyperstorm · #14 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:58 am

If anyone still has any doubts...here's an updated image:

But, as I said, this will most likely be covered by this morning's burst of convection. Enjoy it while it's out...good-looking system.

#15 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 9:59 am

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Bob Stokes just agreed that it looked like an Eye was forming

Well if Bob Stokes and TWC say so than its a done deal. What about Steve Lyons...I would assume he is working since he has had more then enough time to relax the last few months since absolutely nothing has been happening.

SacrydDreamz · #16 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:12 am

Hyperstorm wrote:The feature will likely be covered this afternoon by a burst of convection currently going on south of the center. It is quite common for these eye-like features to be covered by higher cloud tops while it gets better organized and the downward force becomes stronger in the center. For sure this indicates an eyewall already with the system.

Eye like feature which is likely transient.... not an eye IMO. IR image seem to support this with the eroding of the higher cloud tops... especially from the "eye" (pseudo-eye?) westward.

SacrydDreamz · #17 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:28 am

Alex looks like it's ingesting some drier air... any thoughts?

SacrydDreamz · #18 Postby **SacrydDreamz** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:51 am

The eye still appears to be displaced SW from the center fix on radar..... still appears to be a transient feature to me...

Derecho · #19 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:51 am

Not the slightest mention of an eye in the VORTEX from 11AM...but, as is usual, I'm sure people looking at satellite will argue with trained pilots in the middle of the storm.

Also of note is that the FL winds have been upwards of 20 kts HIGHER than the Line "D" Visual estimates this morning, but strangely, nobody is now arguing that NHC should use the visual estimate or "split the difference" between the visual estimate and the FL winds :-)

Yankeegirl · #20 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:06 am

What a great picture.. and I can definately see where is eye is trying to open... Hey, I remember Gloria, I was in RI at the time, and it just so happens that I am leaving to go there on Thursday.. Do you all think its going to get in my way? I would hate to have a delay somewhere!!

An eye has popped...Hurricane shortly

An eye has popped...Hurricane shortly

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