Alex Advisories

[yoda]

Winds also still 60 mph... hmmm

[Stephanie]

Thanks for the updates Derek as usual!

[SacrydDreamz]

Slight pressure increase...

Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004



at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
northward to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning
is now in effect from South Santee River South Carolina to Oregon
Inlet North Carolina.

At 11 am EDT...the tropical storm watch from Edisto Beach to South
Santee River has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 31.5 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 120
miles...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph. A turn to the
northeast is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Alex has the potential to become a hurricane over the
next day or so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...31.5 N... 78.7 W. Movement
toward...east-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Where did you get that from? Slight pressure increase coinciding with warming tops..... makes sense.

[senorpepr]

Where did you get that from? Slight pressure increase coinciding with warming tops..... makes sense.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ normally has advisories before most other venues.

[OtherHD]

Official forecast now takes it to cane status..

[senorpepr]

Hurricane Alex in the forecast...

Tropical Storm Alex Forecast/Advisory Number 9


Statement as of 15:00Z on August 02, 2004



at 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning has been extended
northward to Oregon Inlet North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Warning
is now in effect from South Santee River South Carolina to Oregon
Inlet North Carolina.

At 11 am EDT...the tropical storm watch from Edisto Beach to South
Santee River has been discontinued.

Tropical storm center located near 31.5n 78.7w at 02/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm

present movement toward the east-northeast or 60 degrees at 4 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 993 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt....... 75ne 90se 60sw 20nw.
12 ft seas.. 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 31.5n 78.7w at 02/1500z
at 02/1200z center was located near 31.3n 79.0w

forecast valid 03/0000z 32.1n 78.0w
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 75ne 90se 60sw 20nw.

Forecast valid 03/1200z 33.8n 76.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 0nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 04/0000z 35.8n 73.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 0nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 04/1200z 38.0n 69.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 0nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 60nw.

Forecast valid 05/1200z 44.0n 55.0w...extratropical
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 0nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 60sw 60nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 06/1200z 51.0n 38.0w...extratropical
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.

Outlook valid 07/1200z...absorbed by extratropical low

request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.5n 78.7w

next advisory at 02/2100z

forecaster Franklin

[SacrydDreamz]

Where did you get that from? Slight pressure increase coinciding with warming tops..... makes sense.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/ normally has advisories before most other venues.

Cool, thanks!

[senorpepr]

hmmm.... did someone forget to transmit the discussion?!

[senorpepr]

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004

the structure of Alex is evolving as the upper-level shear pattern
changes. The strongest convection near the core is now east of the
center...with a well-developed band in the southeast quadrant. The
last two reconnaissance fixes showed the central pressure is no
longer dropping...so the intensification trend from this morning
has slowed...at least for now. Alex is forecast to be moving over
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream...with a relativly Deep
Reservoir of 26c or warmer water. The shear is not expected to be
prohibitive for the next day or so...so Alex could reach hurricane
status. After 36-48 hours...cooler SSTs and increasing
southwesterly shear should induce a weakening trend. Global models
suggest that Alex will become extratropical in about 72 hours.
Alex is finally beginning to move in a more consistent manner...and
the initial motion is estimated to be 060/4. Only a weak ridge
remains to the northeast of the cyclone and Alex is about to become
embedded in a southwesterly steering current. Model guidance is in
good agreement on a northeasterly track with a gradual increase in
forward speed over the next two to three days.
There is still very little wind in the northwest quadrant of
Alex...and so with the more eastward track of the cyclone this
morning the tropical storm watch south of South Santee River is
being discontinued.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/1500z 31.5n 78.7w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/0000z 32.1n 78.0w 55 kt
24hr VT 03/1200z 33.8n 76.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 04/0000z 35.8n 73.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 04/1200z 38.0n 69.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 05/1200z 44.0n 55.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 06/1200z 51.0n 38.0w 50 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 07/1200z...absorbed by extratropical low

[yoda]

LOL!! I know.. still waiting for it at NHC!!!

[Brent]

Grrrrr.... It's 11:07am ET and still no discussion.

*bangs head on desk*

[Hyperstorm]

hmmm.... did someone forget to transmit the discussion?!

Sometimes, they take longer to transmit the discussions when last minute details are being added or when the discussions are long. It looks like one of those things might happen.

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 9


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 02, 2004



the structure of Alex is evolving as the upper-level shear pattern
changes. The strongest convection near the core is now east of the
center...with a well-developed band in the southeast quadrant. The
last two reconnaissance fixes showed the central pressure is no
longer dropping...so the intensification trend from this morning
has slowed...at least for now. Alex is forecast to be moving over
the warm waters of the Gulf Stream...with a relativly Deep
Reservoir of 26c or warmer water. The shear is not expected to be
prohibitive for the next day or so...so Alex could reach hurricane
status. After 36-48 hours...cooler SSTs and increasing
southwesterly shear should induce a weakening trend. Global models
suggest that Alex will become extratropical in about 72 hours.
Alex is finally beginning to move in a more consistent manner...and
the initial motion is estimated to be 060/4. Only a weak ridge
remains to the northeast of the cyclone and Alex is about to become
embedded in a southwesterly steering current. Model guidance is in
good agreement on a northeasterly track with a gradual increase in
forward speed over the next two to three days.
There is still very little wind in the northwest quadrant of
Alex...and so with the more eastward track of the cyclone this
morning the tropical storm watch south of South Santee River is
being discontinued.

Forecaster Franklin

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 02/1500z 31.5n 78.7w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/0000z 32.1n 78.0w 55 kt
24hr VT 03/1200z 33.8n 76.0w 60 kt
36hr VT 04/0000z 35.8n 73.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 04/1200z 38.0n 69.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 05/1200z 44.0n 55.0w 55 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 06/1200z 51.0n 38.0w 50 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 07/1200z...absorbed by extratropical low

[yoda]

somebody forgot to write it up maybe?

[therock1811]

I got it-

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO OREGON
INLET NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST OR ABOUT 120
MILES...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH... 95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND ALEX HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH ALEX.

HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COASTAL AREAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 78.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 993 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[senorpepr]

somebody forgot to write it up maybe?

They were probably just waiting for last minute details. Regardless, I posted it, along with others, in this thread.

[yoda]

LOL!! We are waiting for the DISCUSSION part of the 11 Am update therock1811!!

[yoda]

Here it is.. Finally!!

000
WTNT41 KNHC 021505
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004

THE STRUCTURE OF ALEX IS EVOLVING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN
CHANGES. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE IS NOW EAST OF THE
CENTER...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE
LAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NO
LONGER DROPPING...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM THIS MORNING
HAS SLOWED...AT LEAST FOR NOW. ALEX IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER
THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH A RELATIVLY DEEP
RESERVOIR OF 26C OR WARMER WATER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROHIBITIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ALEX COULD REACH HURRICANE
STATUS. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.

ALEX IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A MORE CONSISTENT MANNER...AND
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/4. ONLY A WEAK RIDGE
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ALEX IS ABOUT TO BECOME
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

THERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF
ALEX...AND SO WITH THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THIS
MORNING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IS
BEING DISCONTINUED.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 31.5N 78.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 32.1N 78.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 35.8N 73.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 38.0N 69.0W 60 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 44.0N 55.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 06/1200Z 51.0N 38.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 07/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

[HouTXmetro]

I'll be standing by for an answer.

[WXBUFFJIM]

At 11 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Alex remains at 60 mph with higher gusts. The minimum central pressure is up to 993 mb, up 1 mb from the previous advisory at 8 AM. There have also been some changes to the watches and warnings as of 11 AM EDT this morning. Tropical storm warnings are now in effect from South Santee River, South Carolina up to Oregon Inlet, North Carolina. This includes Wrightsville Beach, Atlantic Beach, Wilmington, and Cape Hatteras. The tropical storm watch from Edisto Beach to South Santee River has been cancelled.

At 11 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Alex is centered near latitude 31.5 north, longitude 78.7 west or about 120 miles southeast of Charleston, SC. Alex was moving toward the east northeast at near 5 mph. A northeasterly turn is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Alex could potentially strengthen to hurricane status in the next day or so. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center. Minimum central pressure is down to 993 mb or 29.32 inches.

Very dangerous rip currents and high surf will threaten the Mid Atlantic and southeast US coastline for the next couple of days. There is a low to moderate risk of rip currents from Fenwick Island down to the North Carolina/Virginia Border and from the Georgia/Florida border down to West Palm Beach. From the Georgia-Florida border northward through the Virginia-North Carolina border, a high risk of rip currents exists.
The biggest threat is now rip currents for the coastal zone as the worse of this system is now expected to remain just off the Mid Atlantic coast.

Jim