Alex & 91L Quick Takes...

[MWatkins]

91L is looking impressive today...with 2 well-established bands. Satellite estimates are 1.5 from SAB and 2.0 from TAFB as of 1145Z...so an upgrade to depression status looks like it could happen as early as this afternoon. Convection is still ragged but has a circular appearance in visible imagery...and a quikscat pass from this morning shows an elongated/ellipitical but 3/4 closed circulation.

Alex is beginning to become worrisome in the sense that it would be good to have seen some movement already occur. With the most recent pressure down to 993...this represents a 13MB drop from this time yesterday. Although the intensification trend has leveled out for now...there is some real concern that Alex could become a hurricane in the next 12/24 hours...and could clip NC on it's way out to sea.

The good news on 91L is that all of the models depict a large deep-layer trough developing off the US east coast in 5/6 days which should turn anything that does develop out to sea..

More when I can post later on...

MW

[Brent]

What about the model data that shows 91L going into the Caribbean? It's unlikely if it goes there it would be picked up by a trough, certainly not enough to miss the U.S.

[yoda]

Good write-up. I am a bit disapointed about the east coast trough develping though... grr!

[yoda]

If it goes in the Carribean, then it woulld miss the East Coast and head into the GOM, right?

[MWatkins]

There are plenty of examples of systems coming into the Caribbean and recurving out to sea without affecting the US. Of course...the probability of a system affecting the US goes up as they come into the Caribbean...it is by no means a given that they will proceed on to the Gulf or US east coast.

We are of course looking at two very uncertain factors...

1. The system may not develop further.
2. The trough is late in the model period and of course subject to change.

But...if the models verify...the chances of 91L getting picked up and deflected are good.

Please...don't shoot the messenger.

MW

[yoda]

We won't Mwatkins. I just hate it when the East Coast trough develops during Hurricane Season. Although Bonnie may pay a visit somewhere around August 8 or after...

[jlauderdal]

Good write-up. I am a bit disapointed about the east coast trough develping though... grr!

You won't be dissapointed in a trough if a major hurricane is heading your way.

[yoda]

Good write-up. I am a bit disapointed about the east coast trough develping though... grr!

You won't be dissapointed in a trough if a major hurricane is heading your way.

I wouldn't mind having a Major Hurricane heading my way...

[Trader Ron]

Voda,
Why are you disappointed? You want to see someone harmed?

[OtherHD]

Not this debate again...




Anyway, keep in mind that the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico are part of the US, so Brent is correct, although I'm sure Mike was just talking about the mainland US. Luis and Marilyn in 1995 went into the Caribbean but missed the US manland completely.

[yoda]

no.. trader ron. I don't want anyone harmed... I just want to experience one.. that's all. Maybe I should move to NC...

[Trader Ron]

What debate? It's not very smart to wish a Cane in someone's neighborhood.

[Anonymous]

JB compares 91L to hurricane Gloria and says it may sneak underneath the trough and be in the bahamas Sunday....Puerto Rico needs to watch this as well http://playlist.yahoo.com/makeplaylist.dll?ID=860853

[SacrydDreamz]

no.. trader ron. I don't want anyone harmed... I just want to experience one.. that's all. Maybe I should move to NC...

Or just further south in VA. My hometown was hit pretty hard by Isabel... I grew up between Richmond and Williamsburg.

[TerryAlly]

no.. trader ron. I don't want anyone harmed... I just want to experience one.. that's all. Maybe I should move to NC...

I too wanted to experience one and I even set up to fly as a pax onboard a hurricane hunter aircraft (as a journalist) unfortunately there were no systems to threaten us (Barbados) that warranted me taking that flight. However, I have repositioned in other Caribbena countries which were threatened and I've seen the destruction and there is no way that I would want one of those things to touch down in Barbados - we'd be flattened.

I've watch volcanoes erupt also (and those pyroclastic flows are beautiful) but not even those hot-headed mountains compare to the widespread catastrophic destruction that a hurricane can produce.

Be careful what you wish for ...

[Patrick99]

grrr.....I am always disappointed when there's a trough. I *want* to experience hurricanes....or else I wouldn't read this board so often.

I was around the Pinecrest area for Andrew, and believe it or not, I want to see it again. There's nothing quite like a good hurricane. I am disappointed that I've been here for 30 years and have only seen one (two if you count Irene). I don't know why FL has been so "protected" over the last several decades. It seems like the only place for a lover of tropical weather to get any consistent action these days is SC/NC.

I'd chase storms if I could, but unfortunately, I have a job.

[Trader Ron]

I've been in about TEN Hurricanes. They are no fun. We were lucky with Gloria. I did not have electricity for 2 days. My parents were out for a week.

[HUC]

Don't fogot the islands like Barbados,Guadeloupe,Martinica.... in the discussions;before to be a fish,perhaps 91L should reach some of these territorries!!I'will give to you for sure info on the weather locally in case of!!!

[MWatkins]

Don't fogot the islands like Barbados,Guadeloupe,Martinica.... in the discussions;before to be a fish,perhaps 91L should reach some of these territorries!!I'will give to you for sure info on the weather locally in case of!!!

I did not mean to overlook the bad news...that this system will be entering the caribbean in one form or another.

Please keep us aprised of what happens there.

MW

[HUC]

Sure,MWatkins,and i appreciate your analysies since the Palm Beach board.