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hurricanefloyd5
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#501 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:34 am

call alex Hurricane alex now that an eye is showing up on radar
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#502 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:43 am

It's definitely close. Pressure is 993 mb. The criteria for minimal hurricane is usually 987 mb. It should be hurricane soon in my opinion, maybe by 2 PM. Alex definitely look alot healthier than last night. Luckily it appears to be mainly a offshore problem i.e. shipping and fishermen.

Jim
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#503 Postby Portastorm » Mon Aug 02, 2004 10:58 am

JB from Accuwx said that the system experienced an influx of dry air from the easterlies and thus development never really happened. He had been concerned about tropical development from 90L and at one point thought it was more a threat than what became Alex. Of course it ended up being much ado about nothing.

Perhaps one of our S2K pro mets could elaborate.
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#504 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:00 am

Wasn't JB the one hyping the hell out of the Invest in the GOM?
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#505 Postby CocoaBill » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:07 am

If I remember correct the amount of red waxes and wanes this much or is this weakening?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#506 Postby alicia-w » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:13 am

Here's what the Eglin WX guys have to say:

Today’s Tropical Update:
Tropical Storm Alex is rapidly intensifying this morning off the coast of South Carolina and may become a hurricane later today. After sitting stationary just south of Charleston for over 24 hours, it now appears to be moving slowly eastward and will apparently just brush the southeast coast before heading out to sea.
Another system is forming out in the Atlantic, over 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. It may become Tropical Depression Two later today and if it keeps organizing, will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie. It is forecast to approach the Caribbean and be near Puerto Rico by Thursday. After that, the most likely scenario is that it will curve northward toward the east coast by the weekend. At this point, it does not look likely to be a future threat to reach the Gulf of Mexico.
Finally, further to the east, another very strong wave is forecast to move from near the African coast, westward across the Atlantic, about 1500 miles behind the first wave discussed above. It is forecast to stay further to the south than the previous system as it crosses the Atlantic so it may be a better candidate to eventually become a threat to the Gulf sometime early next week perhaps.
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#507 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:16 am

Looks like Alex's window of opportunity is closing. Southwesterly shear has begun, exposing the southwest quadrant of the storm and unvovering the center. Convection is rotating around to east and northeast of the center as southwest winds pick up aloft:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/alex16.gif">
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#508 Postby Valkhorn » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:18 am

Actually JB only hyped the storm assuming it developed anything. His words were something like if it does get its act together and makes it to the top of the hill, it could start rolling down the hill quickly.

What he said was basically if it could develop a clear LLC with wrapped convection and get itself started, then it could flare up eventually. However it never got to the top of the hill in the first place.
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#509 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:25 am

MdWx wrote:Wasn't JB the one hyping the hell out of the Invest in the GOM?


Wasn't JB hyping everything...nuff said.
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#510 Postby Guest » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:27 am

Valkhorn wrote:Actually JB only hyped the storm assuming it developed anything. His words were something like if it does get its act together and makes it to the top of the hill, it could start rolling down the hill quickly.

What he said was basically if it could develop a clear LLC with wrapped convection and get itself started, then it could flare up eventually. However it never got to the top of the hill in the first place.


So basically he covered his ass from all angles. And yes I haven't seen a situation yet that he has downplayed. It's all about the bizzness my friend.
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Late Forecast Alex #5--possible hurricane direct hit

#511 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:31 am

Remember, landfall and direct hit aren't the same thing; I've still got this thing offshore, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some hurricane watches fly up just in case.

http://www.nencweather.com/tropicalweather/alex.html

Hurricane in 24 hours.
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#512 Postby Trader Ron » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:36 am

If They were going to put up a Watch, it would be up already. J.M.O. :)
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#513 Postby CocoaBill » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:37 am

Alex most likely will never be a hurrincane......... No watches needed.
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Eyewall developing.

#514 Postby KatDaddy » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:45 am

Alex should be close to hurricane strength. H Warnings very soon


http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kclx.shtml
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#515 Postby ncweatherwizard » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:46 am

CocoaBill wrote:Alex most likely will never be a hurrincane......... No watches needed.


Hurricane watches are issued if hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. Certainly, the possibility exists for hurricane conditions.

As for saying it won't become a hurricane, you may very well end up right; I'll respect your opinion, but honestly it takes some guts to say that a storm at 993mb, modest flow, low surface shear, high SSTs, and no dry air intrusion will not become a hurricane. :)
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#516 Postby alicia-w » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:46 am

I think someone already replied to this image being posted elsewhere and that radar does not indicate formation of a hurricane.
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#517 Postby yoda » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:46 am

I highly doubt Hurricane Warnings will be issued IMO. The strongest part of Alex is in the East and South East quadrant, and this will remain off shore. Therefore, Hurr. Warnings are not anticpated.
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#518 Postby NJCane » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:47 am

The last frames of the visible also show this clearly... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#519 Postby hurricanemike » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:47 am

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#520 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Mon Aug 02, 2004 11:48 am

It seems based on the track, tropical storm warnings sounds good. But hurricane conditions maybe possible offshore closer to the center. The strongest effects will be east and northeast of the center anyway. But it's interesting to see it strengthen rapidly this morning. Even though it's leveled off for the time being, we'll have to wait and see if it becomes a minimal hurricane or not.

Jim
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