Alex Advisories

[alicia-w]

the vortex message makes no mention of eye wall formation.

[Thunder44]

the vortex message makes no mention of eye wall formation.

The last vortex message was before 11am. It's not really an eye until it becomes a hurricane but obviously begining to from recent visible and radar pics. So it may not be long until we see a hurricane.

[alicia-w]

but the vis loop times that correspond with the findings dont jive either. jmo

[ChaserUK]

Hi chaps - certainly looks a bit messy at the moment. Still nice to see the first storm of the season, well in the right hemisphere anyway..

[Thunder44]

but the vis loop times that correspond with the findings dont jive either. jmo

I don't quite understand what you mean. Dr. Lyons just came on say it looked like it was an trying to form an eye.

[alicia-w]

Dr. Lyons, enough said. Dont put much credence into what he has to say. I'm just hoping for the sake of those in NC, that this does NOT become a hurricane. Different sort of -removed- than we're accustomed to around here, but looking at where it is, there isnt too much time for folks to make preparations for a hurricane vs. a TS.

[jlauderdal]

but the vis loop times that correspond with the findings dont jive either. jmo

I don't quite understand what you mean. Dr. Lyons just came on say it looked like it was an trying to form an eye.

So far today I have heard Bob Stokes and Steve Lyons say it is forming an eye. Draw your own conclusions and stick to this weather board for your guidance.

[alicia-w]

well there's the eye wall reference everyone's been going on about:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml?

[CocoaBill]

I appreciate your respect for my opinion. It's just that the shear is beginning to take its toll and the tops are warping away from the center and warming, etc.

[lilbump3000]

It might be developing one, but there looking at the radar from one of the cities on the coastline and it looks like an eye has formed or forming. But even with tropical storms when they get in the radar range it looks like a eye.

[Air Force Met]

Dr. Lyons, enough said. Dont put much credence into what he has to say. I'm just hoping for the sake of those in NC, that this does NOT become a hurricane. Different sort of -removed- than we're accustomed to around here, but looking at where it is, there isnt too much time for folks to make preparations for a hurricane vs. a TS.

Dr. Lyons was one of my profs at A&M. His little pinkie toe knows more about tropical weather than anyone here on this board...and I am sure that includes you.

[mitchell]

yeah Alex looks ragged inthe last few frames...whats up with THAT?

[jlauderdal]

Dr. Lyons, enough said. Dont put much credence into what he has to say. I'm just hoping for the sake of those in NC, that this does NOT become a hurricane. Different sort of -removed- than we're accustomed to around here, but looking at where it is, there isnt too much time for folks to make preparations for a hurricane vs. a TS.

Dr. Lyons was one of my profs at A&M. His little pinkie toe knows more about tropical weather than anyone here on this board...and I am sure that includes you.[/quote

Well thats too bad because he certainly decided on a lousy platform to show his stuff.

[lilbump3000]

He looks ragged on infrared, but on the visible it seem that a eye is forming, or has formed.

[vbhoutex]

Ladies and Gentlemen, The bashing of Dr. Lyons and others will stop now or this thread and any others like it will be deleted. This board is not about peoples opinions of OCM's, other Professional mets(on this site or elsewhere), or Amatuer mets and their predicitons. IT IS ABOUT THE WEATHER!! LET'S KEEP IT THAT WAY!!!! NOW GET BACK TO DISCUSSING THE CURRENT TS AND OTHER POSSIBILBE TROPICAL CYCLONES PLEASE!!!

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Alex Intermediate Advisory Number 9a


Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2004



...Alex moving slowly north-northeastward...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Oregon Inlet North Carolina.

At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 31.8 north...longitude 78.6 west or about 115
miles southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Over the past few hours Alex has been moving to the north-northeast
at about 6 mph. A general northeastward motion is expected later
today. On the forecast track...the center of Alex will be slowly
approaching the Carolina coastline over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Alex has the potential to become a hurricane over the
next day or so.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve unit
reconnaissance aircraft was 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...31.8 N... 78.6 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.

[Air Force Met]

Platform is a different story. The only reason why John Hope was as good on TWC was he was so old he didn't care about the politics envovled. I guess as a met...it irks me when people think they know so much more than the experts. If they do...then THEY need to get out there and do it for a living. It's real easy to be an amatuer and make snipes at professionals...there's no risk invovled. Those of us who do this for a living put our livelyhood on the line daily and have to pay a price for being wrong...and frankly...it bugs me when backseat experts trash the real experts. If they are so good...then they should be doing it and we'd all be standing in line paying them for it.

[CocoaBill]

Excellent replies. Thank you, vbhoutex and Air Force Met!

[vbhoutex]

Ok, now that everyone has setteld down this thread has been unlocked for further discussion. If we stick to the weather it will stay unlocked. Thank you!!

BTW, if everyone will note in the vortex message posted in another thread, ("An eye has popped-Hurricane shortly")it reads "open SE" which means there is not an eye or eyewall as of that vortex message.

[Aquawind]

His little pinkie toe knows more about tropical weather than anyone here on this board...

LOL...Nice verbage.. He is no weather dummy that's for darn sure!