ABC, Easy as 123.........

[Dean4Storms]

ALEX- Looks like Alex will reach Cat. 1 Hurricane strength later today or overnight as the center has become more enveloped within convection. Although the convection has lessened in intensity today it should re-intensify soon. Looks like it will be a close call for the NC coast but even if the center gets close or just along the coast the strongest winds should remain offshore. Rainfall looks to be similiar with most of the convection on the eastern and southern periphery of the center I wouldn't expect rainfall totals to be too impressive.


BONNIE- 91L continues moving westward out east of the Windward Islands and does seem to be organizing. Although moisture starved the TW has held it's own thus far and could become a TD over the next couple of days. It will have to be watched as it likely gets turned northward in the direction of the East coast by week's end as a trough swings off the East coast it could easily be turned out to sea.


CHARLEY- Of the three current systems I speak of here, this one gives me the most concern. The TW south of the CV Islands just off of Africa has the potential for development in a few days and could take a more southerly route threatening the Carib. by the weekend and either southern FL or the Gulf states come early to mid next week. Ridging over the Eastern CONUS and extending out to the Atlantic Ridge next week may well keep this system on the low road (Lookout S. FL or Keys). Of course this is way out and alot can change but this is a potential situation.

[Hurricanehink]

LOL, nice interpretation on things. Damn, now I can't get that song out of my head!

[wx247]

Thanks for the info. Dean. Looks like it will busy over the next several days.

[yoda]

I must disagree with you about Bonnie Dean. Bonnie will NOT recurve out to sea. The trough will just not be strong enough.

[vbhoutex]

I must disagree with you about Bonnie Dean. Bonnie will NOT recurve out to sea. The trough will just not be strong enough.

And Master Yoda, how do you know this? Please explain where you get your insight from oh Master. Far be it from me to disagree with Master Yoda, but I am a curious fellow.

[Brent]

91 and 92L BOTH concern me. I highly doubt both will recurve. I'm not sure which one is more concerning yet though. Still have a while to watch both.

Great writeup Dean.

[Agua]

Thanks Dean. Hopefully, 91L and 92 will both recurve and avoid the Gulf. Keeping my fingers crossed here.

[yoda]

ROFLMAO David!!!

Hmm, the future I have foreseen. Well, put it this way, the GFS IMO has the trough too deep. The ECMWF doesn't forecast the trough until Day 6. So, it will be a race to see who gets to the East Coast first. I, however, believe Bonnie will get in because the trough will not be that strong to shove it out to sea. Also, HPC says that the GFS and ECMWF models have too much variablity in the strength of the East Coast rough, so for now they are saying it will be weak.

Always in motion the future is, and change it could. But at this time, the Jedi Master sees Bonnie a threat to the East Coast this weekend.

[yoda]

Brent, you should be more concerned with 92L.

[weatherfan]

The most likey places imo for any land falling tropica systems is going to be in the southeast and the gulf.Because the pattern this season has been one with a trough rige trough.And the only way one could ever make land fall for the Southen Middle Alantic coast is if we get perfect timing The trough lifts out and or digs in the Ohio Vally.But still consdering the pattern the gulf coast states are the more likey places that could be in trouble this year.