Alex Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

Is that official??......

[chadtm80]

Is that official??......

NO!! OFFICIAL WORD IS FROM NHC ONLY!!

[ncweatherwizard]

Hurricane Watch recommended from Cape Fear, NC, to Cape Hatteras, NC.

Theres ur Hurricane Watch

What do you mean there; just wondering who you were addressing.

Anyhow I wrote that...that's unofficial.

[Derecho]

It's impossible for NHC to please anybody. They got bashed for the hurricane watches and warnings S of NC for Floyd.

The west side of a NE moving storm is the weak side.

[Brent]

It's impossible for NHC to please anybody. They got bashed for the hurricane watches and warnings S of NC for Floyd.

The west side of a NE moving storm is the weak side.

Floyd was also a monster. Almost a Cat 5 and the hurricane force winds went out well over 100 miles from the center. There was no room for error in a situation like that. Had Floyd even wobbled a bit west while it was parallelling FL/GA/SC it would have been devastating had there not been the warnings up.

[ncweatherwizard]

Gates Co., NC: Occasional showers and thunderstorms...temperatures hanging around 80...overcast...winds calm except in thunderstorms.

[Stormsfury]

Scattered clouds, sun, and occasional bands of showers/thunderstorms just NW of the Charleston area.

SF

[ColdFront77]

Weren't you just on another thread complaining about too many threads and the need to consolidate them instead of starting another thread for every little change?

I think your last two threads could qualify. Physician heal thyself!

That's the point

Awesome!

[Guest]

Wouldn't be surprised to see them fly tonight.

[vacanechaser]

the worse part of this and all storms is the eastern side...so just about all this storm belongs to the fishies!!

not true.. the worst side is not the east side of all storms... the right front quad.. which is relative to forward motion... alex, yes... all t.s. and hurricanes... no way...

[Thunder44]

NWS in NC had a conference call with the NHC. There are going to issue hurricane warnings, the track will be closer to coast in the next advisory.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MHX/AFDMHX

[Aquawind]

[HalloweenGale]

Why god? why? Alex is a weak T.S but is showing signs of strengthing so i guess its ok.

[Brent]

[Matthew5]

Sounds like a good move with the system fairly close to the coast.

[Stormchaser16]

LOL Alex is a weak TS???!!!!!

Sorry...... that gave me a good laugh

[bjacobs99]

MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ZONES AMZ130-150-158.
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ZONES AMZ135-152-154-156.
NC...FFA FOR ALL ZONES.

[vbhoutex]

Why god? why? Alex is a weak T.S but is showing signs of strengthing so i guess its ok.

Alex is not a weak TS, and they are being conservative and erring on the side of caution and possiblities. Smart move, imo, at least until it is cleat that Alex will not landfall anywhere on the coast or get close enough for Hurricane conditions to occur.

[ncbird]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 022027
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
425 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...FINAL DETAILS
AFTER 4 PM CONFERENCE CALL AND ISSUANCE OF THE 5 PM OFFICIAL
INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND LOOKS TO MOVG VERY SLOWLY TO TO THE NNE.
THE CONSENSUS OF THE 12Z/18Z MODELS IS FOR A TRACK TO THE LEFT
(CLOSER TO THE NC COAST) THEN THE 18Z OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE AIRMASS PRECEDING ALEX IS VERY MOIST WITH PW'S AOA 2". WE
HAVE SEEN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH THE TROPICAL-LIKE
CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS THE
REGION.FORTUNATELY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING AT A
DECENT SPEED AND HEAVY RAINFALL SO FAR HAS BEEN BRIEF. WE MAY
SEE A LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...BUT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SCT TSTMS SHOULD REDEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT AS ALEX GETS CLOSER TO THE NC COAST. PRESENCE OF
SFC TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS THE AREA. CONSIDERING THE STORM WILL
INITIALLY BE A SLOW MOVER...AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRACK
CLOSER TO THE COAST...WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FFA FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2-3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5+ INCHES POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD PCPN
ASSCTD WITH ALEX SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE AFTERNOON AS THE
STORM MOVES OFF THE OUTER BANKS BUT THE ATMOS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT INTO TUE EVENING. I WILL INC
POPS TO 80% THROUGH TUE AM THEN INDICATE A CHANCE TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT
(A SULTRY 75-80) AND HIGHS TUE WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NW FLOW IN WAKE OF ALEX
WED WILL DRY AND WARM ATMOS CONSIDERABLY. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOIST/INSTAB FOR A 20-30% CHANCE OF A TSTM. THE BIG STORY
WILL BE THE HEAT AS THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTRIBUTES TO 850 MB TEMPS OF
20C. THIS WILL ALLOW READINGS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S. THE HEAT
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105 AND A HEAT ADVY MAY BE NEEDED.

WE PREFERRED THE GFS FCST WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA THU/THU EVENING. READINGS AGAIN SHOULD
BE AROUND 90 THU WITH SCT TSTMS. THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO
FCST AN UN SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE ESTRN US. A RATHER STRONG VORT ASSCTD WITH THE TROUGH IS
FCST TO CROSS NC ON FRI AND I WILL GO WITH A SILENT 20 POP FOR THIS.
MUCH DRIER AND COOLER THAN NORMAL AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO NC FOR THE
WEEKEND AND A DRY FCST WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. THESE COOLER READINGS WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE AT NIGHT AS
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S. THE LATEST HPC
GUID KEEPS A LARGE HIGH ACROSS/NEAR NC THROUGH ERLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY WE ARE OBSERVING SOME TROPICAL SHOWERS AND
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WE EXPECT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN AT BEST MVFR WITH CEILINGS AROUND 25-30KFT. AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES 1000FT CEILING WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...AS WELL AS
SHOWERS WITH SCT TSRA. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARDS
MORNING...PRIMARILY OUT OF THE NE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF
20-25KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS BASED OFF OF THE
LATEST NHC FCST WILL BE BETWEEN 06-12Z. BY NOON WINDS AND SHOWERS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

&&

.MARINE...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE INTESIFICATION/TRACK/AND TIMING OF
HURRICANE ALEX. AT THIS POINT ANTICIPATE THE STRONGEST WINDS TO
ENTER THE CWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY 5AM THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE EXTREME E OUTER BANKS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIDE UP THE COASTLINE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND NOON FOR THE
CRYSTAL COAST AND SOUTH. AT THIS POINT HAVE CAPPED SEAS OFF AROUND
12 FT WITH THE LARGEST SEAS LOCATED AROUND CAPE HATTERAS. ONCE
HURRICANE ALEX MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

HIGH RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AS HURRICANE
ALEX AFFECTS THE COAST. WAVES IN THE SURF ZONE COULD BECOME AS LARGE
8 TO 10 FEET DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM EARLY IN THE DAY...BUT AS
SOON AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N EXPECT A RAPID DECREASE TO AROUND
5FT OR LESS TUE AFTERNOON. BY WED...AN OFFSHORE BREEZE COULD BRING A
BRIEF REPRIEVE BY DROPPING CONDITIONS TO A LOW THREAT. FOR THU AN
ONSHORE BREEZE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP BUT SWELL WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE HIGH RIPS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ045>047-080-081-093-094-
098.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ZONES AMZ130-150-158.
NC...HURRICANE WARNING FOR ZONES NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ZONES AMZ135-152-154-156.
NC...FFA FOR ALL ZONES.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...08/ELARDO
AVIATION/MARINE...21/JAMISON

[Bane]

They are also calling it Hurricane Alex in their discussion.