Alex Advisories
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hurricanedude
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Brent
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Alex update: 60 mph winds, expected to hit Outer Banks
Tropical Storm Alex Advisory Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2004
...Hurricane Warning issued as Alex edges toward the coast...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of
Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 150 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.
Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast
track...the center of Alex is expected to pass very near the North
Carolina Outer Banks tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.1 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2004
...Hurricane Warning issued as Alex edges toward the coast...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of
Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 150 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.
Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast
track...the center of Alex is expected to pass very near the North
Carolina Outer Banks tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.1 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
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#neversummer
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chadtm80
hurricanedude wrote:A Hurricane Watch is only issued if Hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours......not just because a storm may develop into a hurricane. Even if and thats a big if...it ever makes it to cane force, absolutely no Hurricane conditions will affect land.....and very minimal TS effects....the worse part of this and all storms is the eastern side...so just about all this storm belongs to the fishies!!
http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=35008
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HURRICANE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT
...Hurricane Warning issued as Alex edges toward the coast...
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of
Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 150 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.
Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast
track...the center of Alex is expected to pass very near the North
Carolina Outer Banks tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.1 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Warning has been issued from Cape
Lookout to Oregon Inlet North Carolina...including the Pamlico
Sound. This means that hurricane conditions are expected within
the warning area during the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from north of
Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the
Albemarle Sound.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.1 north...longitude 78.5 west or about 150 miles
south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina.
Alex is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph. A turn
toward the northeast is expected tonight. On the forecast
track...the center of Alex is expected to pass very near the North
Carolina Outer Banks tomorrow.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Alex is forecast to become a hurricane during the next 24
hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
...165 km from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.
Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...32.1 N... 78.5 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 60 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
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tracyswfla
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wx247
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The good news is that the worst of the weather is on the east side of the low.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Stormcenter
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GalvestonDuck
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Brent
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5pm discussion on Alex
Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 10
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2004
the last reconnaissance pass into Alex at 1704z gave a minimum
pressure of 993 mb...maximum flight level winds of 57 kt...and
released two dropsondes that reported surface winds of 45 and 46
kt. Based on this information...the maximum winds are held at 50 kt
for this advisory. The aircraft also reported a 20 mile-wide
circular eye that was open to the southeast. Since that time...the
quality of the radar depiction has varied...with a partial eyewall
occasionally present. Water vapor imagery indicates that Alex has
come under a more favorable upper-level anticyclonic flow pattern
today that has enhanced the cyclone's outflow. Alex should be
moving along the north edge of the Gulf Stream. Southwesterly
shear will be increasing over the next 24 hours...but is not
expected to inhibit development overnight tonight. Both the SHIPS
and GFDL guidance bring Alex to hurricane strength within 24 hours.
After that...increasing shear and colder waters should produce a
weakening trend. By 72 hours...Alex is expected to become
extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical
system.
The initial motion is 025/5...left of the previous track. Model
guidance is also left of the previous runs...with most of the
guidance taking Alex over or very near the North Carolina Outer
Banks. Approaching deep-layer southwesterlies should soon turn
Alex on a more northeastly track roughly parallel to the North
Carolina coastline. If the official track...intensity...and wind
radii forecasts are precisely correct...then hurricane conditions
will remain offshore. However...only very small deviations from
these forecasts could result in hurricane conditions being
experienced on land. Consequently...it is appropriate to issue a
Hurricane Warning at this time.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/2100z 32.1n 78.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 33.1n 77.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 34.8n 75.3w 65 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 36.7n 72.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 39.0n 67.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 05/1800z 44.0n 54.0w 45 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 06/1800z...absorbed by extratropical low
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 02, 2004
the last reconnaissance pass into Alex at 1704z gave a minimum
pressure of 993 mb...maximum flight level winds of 57 kt...and
released two dropsondes that reported surface winds of 45 and 46
kt. Based on this information...the maximum winds are held at 50 kt
for this advisory. The aircraft also reported a 20 mile-wide
circular eye that was open to the southeast. Since that time...the
quality of the radar depiction has varied...with a partial eyewall
occasionally present. Water vapor imagery indicates that Alex has
come under a more favorable upper-level anticyclonic flow pattern
today that has enhanced the cyclone's outflow. Alex should be
moving along the north edge of the Gulf Stream. Southwesterly
shear will be increasing over the next 24 hours...but is not
expected to inhibit development overnight tonight. Both the SHIPS
and GFDL guidance bring Alex to hurricane strength within 24 hours.
After that...increasing shear and colder waters should produce a
weakening trend. By 72 hours...Alex is expected to become
extratropical and then become absorbed by a larger extratropical
system.
The initial motion is 025/5...left of the previous track. Model
guidance is also left of the previous runs...with most of the
guidance taking Alex over or very near the North Carolina Outer
Banks. Approaching deep-layer southwesterlies should soon turn
Alex on a more northeastly track roughly parallel to the North
Carolina coastline. If the official track...intensity...and wind
radii forecasts are precisely correct...then hurricane conditions
will remain offshore. However...only very small deviations from
these forecasts could result in hurricane conditions being
experienced on land. Consequently...it is appropriate to issue a
Hurricane Warning at this time.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 02/2100z 32.1n 78.5w 50 kt
12hr VT 03/0600z 33.1n 77.6w 55 kt
24hr VT 03/1800z 34.8n 75.3w 65 kt
36hr VT 04/0600z 36.7n 72.0w 65 kt
48hr VT 04/1800z 39.0n 67.0w 60 kt
72hr VT 05/1800z 44.0n 54.0w 45 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 06/1800z...absorbed by extratropical low
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#neversummer
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hurricanedude
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Guest
Cat 1 By Tuesday 2:00 p.m.
Cat 1 by Tuesday and 91L Depression by Tuesday Night. Any other opinions on this?
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vacanechaser
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SacrydDreamz
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hurricanedude wrote:A Hurricane Watch is only issued if Hurricane conditions are possible in the next 48 hours......not just because a storm may develop into a hurricane. Even if and thats a big if...it ever makes it to cane force, absolutely no Hurricane conditions will affect land.....and very minimal TS effects....the worse part of this and all storms is the eastern side...so just about all this storm belongs to the fishies!!
Given the erratic movement of Alex and the possibility of it gaining hurricance status I anticipated a hurricane watch... and I anticipated wrong.. Glad to see warning up though... If there is a warning now can I argue a watch was warrented at 11am? I think so...
Last edited by SacrydDreamz on Mon Aug 02, 2004 4:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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