Alex Advisories

[Brent]

40 kts is the surface estimate of winds where the center is. 52 kt is the MAXIMUM winds AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. If that's as strong as it is, 60-65 mph at the surface is too high.

[Thunder44]

Those flight level winds were taken in the Southern Quadrant. I imagine there are stronger winds in the northern quad, where most of the t-storms are.

[WXBUFFJIM]

We got more deepening tonight with tropical storm alex. The latest Vortex Data Message shows 988 mb pressure and the eyewall is now closed. The system could potentially be near hurricane strength at this time. This is a 5 mb drop in pressure since the last recon run earlier today. Data below

000
URNT12 KNHC 030018
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/0018Z
B. 32 DEG 23 MIN N
78 DEG 11 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1310 M
D. 40 KT
E. 163 DEG 29 NM
F. 252 DEG 52 KT
G. 157 DEG 016 NM
H. 988 MB
I. 17 C/ 1538 M
J. 19 C/ 1536 M
K. 18 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C25
N. 1234/8
O. 0.5/1.0 NM
P. AF866 0701A ALEX OB 04
MAX FL WIND 52 KT S QUAD 0006Z.

[WXBUFFJIM]

It's most likely 60-65 mph or possibly gusts over hurricane force in the northern eye wall.

Jim

[Brent]

988 mb! Is the 40 knots at letter D what I think it is? It must be stronger than that.

That's just the first pass ...

BTW, RECON has now found

988 mb pressure
Closed Eyewall

Probably if the trend continues ... 11 pm --- Hurricane Alex ---

Cool.

[Stormsfury]

Already a thread (called New Vortex)

SF

[dekeoy]

Winds right now gusting to occasional 15-20. Rain has not appeared in the last three hours or so but I see some coming on the radar. Gonna be a close call for everyone involved, and with the rain we've had lately, I hate to see 3 more inches. Wind shouldn't be a problem except for the sogged dirt around the many tress around the may power line poles which of coure will fall after an inch of rain and a little wind. Good luck to all involved. I got to be out in it tomorrow so wish me luck!

[Hurricanehink]

Ahh, I forgot about the multiple passes. Hurricane Alex... I like the sound of that.

[Brent]

Ahh, I forgot about the multiple passes. Hurricane Alex... I like the sound of that.

So do I.

[WXBUFFJIM]

oops. I guess we're all in this together, lol

I'll admit though, Alex looks as healthy as ever both on satellite and radar. I would say minimal hurricane strength either by 11 pm or 2 am. It's definitely close to that now. Usually 987 mb would be minimal hurricane intensity at 75 mph.

Jim

[Rainband]

I am inpressed. Lucky this will never make landfall

[Aquawind]

It takes awhile for the winds to catchup to the pressure..well not literaly..lol

[chadtm80]

[Bane]

The closed eyewall is an indication this thing has become stronger as well. I'd be surprised if it isn't upgraded at 11pm.

[shortwave]

heres a link for the dvorak current intensity chart for anyone unfamilair with the numbers
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[Stormsfury]

heres a link for the dvorak current intensity chart for anyone unfamilair with the numbers
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Also to add .. this is primarily used for satellite interpretation only ... although, the average has been proven to be fairly consistent, but it's not 100% (as with all meteorology) ... some hurricanes can have relatively high pressures (dependant on the environment it's embedded in) like Hurricane Danny in the North Atlantic last year ... 1005mb ...

Some tropical storms have had some exceptionally low pressures but winds not even close to hurricane strength ...

[dixiebreeze]

Thank y'all for posting all the good charts, etc.

[Three Blind Mice]

Latest from Frying Pan shoals. Good buoy to watch for pressure drops..
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... tion=fpsn7

[Rainband]

I agree Dixie. Good Info

[WXBUFFJIM]

0119Z

987 MB

CLOSED EYEWALL

Potentially nearing hurricane strength by 11 PM with Alex. Keep an eye out folks.