Alex Advisories

[GaryOBX]

KILL DEVIL HILLS, NC 10:30PM 02-AUG-2004
Mostly Cloudy w/ Light Rain
77 degrees
85% humidity
SE winds 5-10 mph
1014 mb

Just got a pretty loud rumble of thunder...

[Aquawind]

La La La La La..I can't hear you..

[WXBUFFJIM]

...Alex strengthening as it moves closer to the North Carolina
coast...could become a hurricane on Tuesday...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet
North Carolina...including the Pamlico Sound. This means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area during
the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should
be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Oregon Inlet to
the North Carolina/Virginia border...including the Albemarle Sound.

A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from South Santee River
South Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Storm Alex was located
near latitude 32.8 north...longitude 77.8 west or about 95 miles
south of Wilmington North Carolina.

Alex is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph. This general
motion...with a gradual increase in forward speed...is expected
for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Alex
is forecast to pass very near the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...with higher gusts. Some
slight strengthening is forecast and Alex could become a hurricane
on Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the
center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was 987 mb...29.15 inches.

Storm total rainfall accumulations of 2-3 inches...with isolated
higher amounts...can be expected in association with Alex.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 1-2 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected on Atlantic shorelines. Storm surge flooding of 2-4
feet above normal tide levels can be expected inside Pamlico Sound.
High surf and rip currents will affect much of the southeastern and
mid-Atlantic U.S. Coastal areas for the next couple of days.

Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...32.8 N... 77.8 W. Movement
toward...northeast near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 987 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Stewart


$$

[Hurricanehink]

Aww.... no hurricane yet. Well, it should become one over night.

[HurricaneLover]

La La La La La..I can't hear you..

LOL i hate the news as much as you do!

[Hurricanehink]

LOL. Still, 92L seems like it doesn't want to organize any more. Bonnie might not see her friend Charlie while she's around this time.

[stormie_skies]

Guess they took the conservative route....no harm in that I suppose

[abajan]

Oh well, that's it. Time for me to hit the sack!

Good Night, folks.

[Pebbles]

It's off by only by 5mph...They can call it a strong TS or a weak cat one at this point *shrugs*...but it has come a long way from what I would've given it credit for last night!

[Brent]

I think they will upgrade in the morning, maybe at 5am, but certainly by 11am once the visibles come in.

That's IF it stays together overnight.

[HurricaneLover]

Good night Abajan....hopefully tomorrow will be more exciting for you with the new depression (let's cross our fingers)

[HurricaneLover]

Good night Abajan....hopefully tomorrow will be more exciting for you with the new depression (let's cross our fingers)

[Pebbles]

Guess they took the conservative route....no harm in that I suppose

IT's A HURRICANE>>>A CANE I TELL YA!!!!! *throws a tantrum and sticks out her tounge at the NHC* Just had to get it outta my system *begs forgiveness*

[wx247]

Thanks for the info Jim!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

No one would have expected to see something like this. Comparing 70 to 75 mph, it's not too different relative to wind damage potential.

Jim

[wx247]

No one would have expected to see something like this. Comparing 70 to 75 mph, it's not too different relative to wind damage potential.

Jim

Exactly... all it really affects are stats.

[TexasSam]

LOL @ Pebbles

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the Discussion is extensive because still they haven't give it out.

[Pebbles]

Maybe they are debating if it will 'tag' the outer banks?

[WXBUFFJIM]

Very interesting to see potentially a more southerly component to this trough axis to the west of Alex. This may shove Alex right into the Cape Hatteras and Pamilco Sound area before it even gets back out over the ocean tomorrow afternoon. There is also potential this could peak at 70 kts if this does indeed occur, which is one possibility. Another possibility is keeping Alex offshore, which is still possible. But with a more southerly component to that trough west of Alex, this could mean a more north or north northeast motion as opposed to a northeast or east northeast motion at least through tonight into Tuesday morning. The track of this is very critical since the wind fields with this thing are very small in size. Wilmington, NC is seeing 5-10 mph winds with higher gusts in rain squalls while 90 miles south of there, the tropical storm force winds with hurricane force gusts start impacting the offshore waters. This will be very interesting for the Outer Banks tomorrow and the potential projected paths I'm talking about above could mean the difference between getting winds of 20-25 mph and winds of 70-90 mph at Cape Hatteras. A very small wind field with this system obviously. We'll keep an eye on it. Stay tuned.

Jim